Pennsylvania Senate Race: Bob Casey leads Dave McCormick in latest Emerson poll

George Stockburger
·3 min read
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(WHTM) – A new poll of Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race shows incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Casey (D) maintaining an early lead on Republican challenger Dave McCormick.

The poll found Casey leading 46.2% to McCormick’s 42.1% with 11.6% undecided nearly months away from the November general election.

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This Week in Pennsylvania

This is one of the first polls released on the race after McCormick and Casey officially locked up their party’s nominations in the April primary, however, neither primary was contested.

A February Emerson College poll found Casey leading by 10% and a March survey found the senior senator up by 5%.

McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and Treasury Department official, was given a clear path to the primary this year after a bruising campaign in 2022 where he lost to Mehmet Oz by less than 1,000 votes. McCormick has focused on the border and inflation early in the race.

Meanwhile, looking for his fourth term in the Senate, Casey has focused on “greedflation” with consumer product prices remaining high coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The April Emerson College poll also found that 40.4% of Pennsylvania voters found the economy (including jobs, inflation, and taxes) to be their top issue. Threats to democracy and immigration rounded out the top three issues for voters.

In the presidential race, the poll found Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in Pennsylvania 47% to 45% with 8% undecided. Trump also led Biden outside of the 3 point margin of error in the swing states of Arizona and North Carolina.

“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted, “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in the swing states.”

Nearly three-quarters of voters said they were “extremely motivated” to vote in 2024.

Methodology

The sample for each state included n=1,000 registered voters. Data was weighted by statewide general population parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and voter registration and turnout data. The credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, for the sample is +/- 3% in 19 of 20 cases in each state. The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between April 25-29, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

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