Packed race to succeed Bucshon in Congress has narrowed

EVANSVILLE — One big clue about how the crowded race to succeed 8th District Congressman Larry Bucshon is shaping up is where the money's being spent.

About $2 million collectively had been spent in the race by outside groups as of mid-April, according to ad tracker data provided by The Cook Political Report. The ad money is coming from the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC), the United Democracy Project, a super PAC (political action committee) tied to the pro-Israel lobbying group American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), and super PAC America Leads Action.

It's all meant to defeat former Rep. John Hostettler, who represented the 8th District in Congress from 1995 until 2007, in the May 7 Republican primary election.

More: With 13 candidates, Indiana's 8th District Congressional race is a free-for-all

Hostettler, who is attempting a comeback in this year's race, opposed a resolution expressing support for Israel during its conflict with the Palestinians in October 2000. RJC claims he "consistently opposed vital aid to Israel (and) trafficked antisemitic conspiracy theories."

RJC is backing State Sen. Mark Messmer (R-Jasper), who local Republicans and the Cook Political Report describe as Hostettler's most formidable opponent in the top tier of a GOP primary with eight candidates.

"I think it’s fair to call this a two-way race at this point, with Messmer probably the frontrunner," said Erin Covey, the Cook report's chief analyst for U.S. House races.

Messmer apparently thinks so, too. During an April 9 meet-and-greet event for Republican candidates in Newburgh, he several times referred to Hostettler as "my opponent" — although there are six other Republicans in the race. One of them, Dominick Kavanaugh, was present that night.

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Political observers credit Hostettler's name recognition and political experience in the 8th District for his ability to garner the kind of support that makes him a target 17 years after leaving Congress.

Evansville attorney Josh Claybourn, an informal adviser to Bucshon's early campaigns, pointed to Hostettler's reputation while he was in Washington for sticking to his principles no matter the political cost.

"Although about two decades have passed since Hostettler held office, voters still remember his principled approach," Claybourn said. "His son's (State Rep. Matt Hostettler) role as a state representative has also helped keep the family name and brand prominent."

More: A familiar name is entering the fray for Indiana's 8th District seat in Congress

An attempt to contact John Hostettler via his campaign website was unsuccessful.

The former congressman has been open about his views on the Middle East.

In his 2008 book, "Nothing for the Nation: Who Got What Out of Iraq," Hostettler argued then-President George W. Bush harbored a grudge against Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein for the 1993 assassination attempt against his father, former President George H.W. Bush. Hostettler also believed the younger Bush's top intelligence advisers were neoconservatives who manipulated intelligence to justify attacking Israel's foremost enemy, Iraq.

Not all the money in 8th District race is anti-Hostettler

The 8th District includes Vanderburgh, Warrick, Posey, Gibson and 17 other Southern and West-Central Indiana counties. Bucshon announced in January that he would not seek re-election to Congress after seven two-year terms. That made the 8th District, for election purposes, an open seat.

Not all of the anti-Hostettler advertising is about Israel, and not all of the outside money is meant to defeat Hostettler.

A United Democracy Project mailer that dropped in local mailboxes in mid-April portrays the former congressman as a creature of Washington who only wants to return to power. It describes him as a "career politician & swamp creature" and states — inaccurately — that he "served in Congress 30 years ago."

Countering the trio of super PACs aligned against Hostettler — albeit on a much smaller scale — is Protect Freedom PAC, a committee aligned with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. Protect Freedom had spent about $300,000 as of Tuesday on ads starring Paul, who calls Hostettler "the true constitutional conservative."

There are some eye-popping fundraising numbers

Campaign funds raised by the candidates themselves are less impressive than that.

Hostettler, never a prolific fundraiser, stated in first-quarter campaign finance reports this week that he had raised more than $34,000, most of it from individuals. Hostettler reports nearly $28,000 cash on hand. That's a pittance even in a congressional race with the 8th District's affordable advertising rates. Nielsen's 2023 rankings list the Evansville media market as the 107th-largest in the country and the Terre Haute media market as 158th-largest.

Messmer reports having raised nearly $215,000, with more than $121,000 cash on hand.

More: Bucshon says he has lots of juice left for final year in Congress

The most eye-popping fundraising numbers in the race were posted by two candidates area Republicans privately say are part of the second tier of contenders, Dr. Richard Moss and Kavanaugh. Moss is a Jasper-based ear, nose and throat surgeon who is mounting his third campaign for the 8th District seat.

Moss has loaned his campaign $545,000, according to FEC reports. That's 98% of Moss's total contributions. He reports having nearly $367,000 cash on hand. Kavanaugh reports loaning his campaign $500,000, 95% of the total he has raised. Kavanaugh reports having nearly $393,000 cash on hand.

"Sometimes it’s hard to tell with these self-funders how much they’re actually willing to spend," Cook Report analyst Covey told the Courier & Press.

"A lot of times, candidates will loan themselves like half a million dollars, but if they’re not super-super wealthy, then they will not necessarily be willing to spend all of it."

More: Bucshon denies and slams Newsweek report that he may resign

Kristi Risk, chair of the Owen County GOP, nearly defeated Bucshon in a similarly crowded GOP primary the year Bucshon was first elected to Congress in 2010. Risk, who is running again this year, reported raising more than $66,000 — $50,000 of it in a loan from herself.

The full list of Republican candidates is:

• Jim Case

• Jeremy L. Heath

• John N. Hostettler

• Dominick Kavanaugh

• Luke A. Misner

• Mark Messmer

• Richard Moss

• Kristi Risk

Yes, some Democrats are running in 8th District, too

The Democrats have a race, too. It's just not the same kind of race. That is, the 8th District is one of the most Republican congressional districts in the nation, according to The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index. The "PVI" measures how voters in the nation's 435 House districts cast their ballots in presidential races compared to the country as a whole.

A "PVI score" of R+3, for example, means that in recent presidential elections, that district voted three percentage points more Republican than the national average.

The 8th District's PVI score? R+19.

Cook Report analyst Covey was blunt about Democrats' chances of flipping Bucshon's seat.

"(Then-Republican President Donald) Trump won (the 8th District) by over 30 points in 2020, so there’s really no world in which a Democrat could win the general election here," Covey said. "The (Republican) primary’s going to decide the next congressman."

Nevertheless, four Democrats are seeking their party's nomination. None have high name recognition, much money or any experience winning elections.

They are:

• Erik Hurt

• Peter FH Priest II

• Edward Upton Sein

• Michael Talarzyk

Boonville resident Sein, a musician and guitar salesman, has the support of party leaders. Dave Crooks, the party's 2012 nominee against Bucshon and chairman of the 8th District Democratic organization, is Sein's campaign manager.

Sein reports having raised just over $5,800 — a number Crooks admits is disappointing.

"This is the reason why I didn’t want to run again," Crooks said. "I mean, you’re constantly chasing dollars or, if you don’t chase dollars, then you self-fund."

Looming over both major parties' primary contests is the fact that Indiana doesn't do run-off elections. Winners can grab a victory in crowded races with pluralities of votes. In 2010, when Bucshon was seeking his first term and the 8th District seat was open, he won an eight-candidate GOP primary with 33% of votes. Risk got 29%.

Claybourn said Hostettler's biggest challenge in topping Messmer on May 7 is the fact that Messmer is widely perceived as more moderate.

That's not typically an asset in GOP primary campaigns — but with no requirement for a majority to win, the problem for Hostettler is that most of the other six Republican candidates are perceived as being as conservative as he is. It lowers the threshold Messmer must hurdle to win.

"Second-tier candidates such as Risk, Moss and Kavanaugh are siphoning off some of (Hostettler's) support," Claybourn said.

Early in-person voting in Vanderburgh County began on April 9. It ends at noon May 6, the day before the primary election.

This article originally appeared on Evansville Courier & Press: Who is running for Congress in Indiana's 8th District?