Oshkosh could lead District 18 to its first Democratic senator in 12 years under Wisconsin's new legislative maps. Here's how.

OSHKOSH – The city could play a huge role in possibly painting the new district blue.

Senate District 18 is projected to welcome its first Democratic senator in more than a decade after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers signed new electoral maps into law that threw Oshkosh in with Neenah, Menasha and most of the city of Appleton.

A Milwaukee Journal Sentinel analysis of the new maps shows they will divide Wisconsin’s 33 legislative districts more evenly, weakening advantages granted to the Republican Party through maps drawn in 2011.

Nowhere has that been more evident than Senate District 18, where Republican Sen. Dan Feyen was even drawn out of the district and is now seeking re-election in the 20th.

The old map previously placed Oshkosh with more rural and Republican-leaning areas such as Omro, Waupun and Feyen’s backyard of Fond du Lac.

“We have had great success in the district but now the lines have been changed and Fond du Lac, my hometown, is now part of the 20th Senate District,” wrote Feyen in a news release back in February when the new maps were drawn.

“We’ve put together a plan, will continue to lay the groundwork and will hit the ground running, meeting with the voters of the new 20th Senate District and asking for their support in November,” Feyen added.

Republicans currently control 22 of the 33 Senate districts under the old maps.

See the new state Senate districts

This map shows Wisconsin state Senate districts under the previous 2022 map on the left, and the new 2024 map on the right. Each district is colored according to whether itleans Democrat, leans Republican, or is acompetitive district (within 5%).

Old maps (2022)

New maps (2024)

Note: The partisan lean of districts is calculated based on voting data from national and local elections from 2016 to 2022. Districts with less than 5% difference in Republican and Democratic votes are considered competitive districts.

Map by Andrew Hahn and Eva Wen / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Republicans currently control two-thirds of the Senate districts, or 22 of 33 seats, under the previous maps. There are 10 Democratic senators and a vacant seat.

But Evers’ shakeup has seemingly reduced the number of Republican-leaning districts down to 15 while 14 of the 33 appear to lean toward the Democrats, according to the Journal Sentinel analysis.

That analysis is based on precinct-level voting data in national and local elections from 2016 to 2022.

Districts that are 5% more Democratic than Republican are defined as Democratic-leaning, and vice versa.

The Journal Sentinel analysis is also supported by a similar one done by research fellow John Johnson of Marquette University's Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education, who also shows District 18 turning blue.

Related: Wisconsin has new legislative maps, but won't have new congressional ones. Here's why.

It positions Appleton Common Council member Kristin Alfheim to become the district’s first Democratic senator since Jessica King last held the seat in 2012.

“I think most people are excited the new maps are giving Wisconsin the opportunity to be represented in a much more fair way,” said Alfheim, who announced her candidacy in February.

“There are a lot of areas that tie the Fox Cities together and it is important that District 18 is represented by someone who understands the needs of these four major municipalities and the 155,000 people who vote here.”

Alfheim, who lost the Senate District 19 race to Sen. Rachael Cabral-Guevara in 2022, may have to survive a primary just to make it to the November election against Republican candidate Anthony Phillips.

But 21-year-old Democratic hopeful Joseph Carman has just more than 120 signatures — significantly short of the 400 needed for the June 1 deadline to appear on the ballot.

Carman is a full-time student at the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire and is a member of the Wisconsin Army National Guard.

“If I am being honest, it really is up in the air, but I see this as an opportunity to learn and I think Kristin will be wonderful in the position if I can’t get enough signatures,” Carman said.

See the new state Assembly districts

This map shows Wisconsin state Assembly districts under the previous 2022 map on the left, and the new 2024 map on the right. Each district is colored according to whether itleans Democrat, leans Republican, or is acompetitive district (within 5%).

Old maps (2022)

New maps (2024)

Note: The partisan lean of districts is calculated based on voting data from national and local elections from 2016 to 2022. Districts with less than 5% difference in Republican and Democratic votes are considered competitive districts.

Map by Andrew Hahn and Eva Wen / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

The new Senate and Assembly maps will be in effect for the November election.

The new maps will be in effect for the November election, when all Assembly districts and even-numbered Senate districts will be contested.

But Phillips doesn’t share the view that this redistricting divides the legislative maps more evenly, calling Evers’ redrawing of Senate District a case of gerrymandering.

“I know what gerrymandering is and I do believe in nonpartisan maps because I worked with the People’s Maps Commission in 2020 when the census came out to produce a nonpartisan map,” said Phillips, an oncologist.

“I still believe I can win the district because I think I have the résumé as a business owner and a physician to win over independents and get enough voters to make up that deficit.

“I believe I can win the district for a better Wisconsin focused on meritocracy, supporting families and better education instead of divisive DEI policies and pronouns,” he added.

Related: You have questions about Wisconsin's new election maps and how they affect you? We have answers.

Changes to the state Assembly map will also more evenly divide the 99 seats.

Republicans currently hold 64 of those seats, but the new map will see 46 districts that lean Republican and 45 districts that lean Democratic.

Unlike the Senate District, the changes to the 54th Assembly District aren’t as significant considering the map still covers most of Oshkosh.

The seat loses a southern portion of the city but expands north toward Neenah, adding the Town of Vinland.

District 54 also goes out more westward to cover the northern half of Lake Butte des Morts.

But as it currently stands, incumbent Rep. Lori Palmeri, D-Oshkosh, is unchallenged while seeking a second successive term.

“I never take anything for granted because I remember when I ran for mayor in 2019 and I beat the incumbent by 321 votes and that means a significant number of people didn’t vote for me,” Palmeri said.

“I am excited for my election and also for the 18th Senate District because for decades Oshkosh has been separated from the Fox Cities and that will no longer be the case.”

The fall primary will be Aug. 13 and the general election will Nov. 5. For information about how to register to vote or to find your polling location, go to myvote.wi.

Have a story tip or public interest concern? Contact Justin Marville at jmarville@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Oshkosh Northwestern: Oshkosh may sway District 18 to first Democratic senator in 12 years.