The Oscar Map: It's the end of #OscarsSoWhite, at least for this year
LOS ANGELES — Ding-Dong, #OscarsSoWhite is dead. There will be no R.I.P. tweets. It will not be featured in an "In Memoriam" montage.
The hashtag that haunted Hollywood for two awards cycles can be safely put to rest — at least for the 2017 ceremony — since as many as half of this year's 20 acting nominees are poised to be people of color. That's thanks to Fences, Hidden Figures, Moonlight, Loving, Lion and Collateral Beauty.
2006 holds the record for the most diverse group of acting nominees, boasting eight people of color — Forest Whitaker, Will Smith, Penelope Cruz, Djimon Hounsou, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson, Rinko Kikuchi and Adriana Barraza.
This year's crop of potential nominees will give that group a run for its money. Fences star Viola Davis is looking like a lock for Best Supporting Actress, and the actress most likely to pull off an upset is Moonlight's Naomie Harris. Davis' co-star, Denzel Washington, is a surefire Best Actor nominee who will no doubt give Casey Affleck a run for his money.
SEE ALSO: 'Patriots Day' is a heartbreaking thriller that America needs right now
It's entirely possible that all three leads in Hidden Figures — Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer and Janelle Monáe — could land nominations, and the same goes for the male ensembles of both Fences and Moonlight (led by Mahershala Ali).
Lion star Dev Patel and Loving actress Ruth Negga will also factor into the Oscar race — and don't count out Will Smith, who aims to surprise with late-comer Collateral Beauty.
That high-concept, star-driven drama is just one of the remaining wild cards this awards season. Indeed, just when you thought you had this year's Oscar race all figured out after the fall festivals, November delivered some surprises of its own, with Warren Beatty's long-gestating Howard Hughes movie Rules Don't Apply written off as a surprising bust, and Peter Berg's Boston Marathon bombing thriller Patriots Day anointed as a surprise contender.
Meanwhile, Ted Melfi's NASA film Hidden Figures could be the crowdpleaser this race needs, and Denzel Washington's filmed play Fences announced itself as a major contender in the acting races, which are still wide open.
SEE ALSO: 'Moonlight' is a must-see movie about sexual identity that falls short of greatness
No one has staked a strong claim on the 5th slot for Best Actor, and the same can be said for Best Supporting Actress, where Greta Gerwig is looking to fend off two Hidden Figures stars (Spencer and Monáe) and a pair of talented actresses who played cancer-stricken mothers (Molly Shannon and Felicity Jones).
Don't even get me started on Best Supporting Actor, which offers a plethora of options, though the tightest race at the moment appears to be for Best Director, where foreign filmmakers like Denis Villeneuve, Pablo Larraín and Garth Davis hope to fend off Oscar-winning directors such as Martin Scorsese and Clint Eastwood.
The Oscar contenders are coming down the homestretch, and you know what that means. It's time for another round of (updated!) predictions.
So buckle up, and if your name isn't on this list, feel free to start eating ice cream and pizza again.
Best Picture
Image: amazon studios/roadside attractions
This still feels like a two-film race between La La Land and Manchester by the Sea, two examples of the kinds of movies that Hollywood rarely makes anymore.
Moonlight has a passionate fanbase, and both Lion and Patriots Day had me bawling, but I don't see what else could go the distance unless Martin Scorsese delivers another masterpiece with Silence. That violent period film (echoes of The Revenant, anyone?) remains a giant question mark looming over awards season.
Sully and Arrival have the box office on their side, while Hell or High Water has been coming on strong and shouldn't be slept on. On the flipside, buzz for Loving seems to be diminishing. It's a lovely movie, but I'm not sure it moved me the way a Best Picture nominee should.
The Nominees — La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Hidden Figures, Fences, Lion, Patriots Day, Sully, Arrival, Jackie
The Alternate — Silence
The Dark Horse — Hell or High Water
Off the Map — Rules Don't Apply
Best Director
Image: Steve Cohn/Invision/AP
There are two open slots in this category, and it all depends on whether the Academy will stand by the old guard (Martin Scorsese, Clint Eastwood) or welcome the new one, led by Denis Villeneuve, Pablo Larraín and Garth Davis.
Either way, Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins have to be feeling pretty safe right now. They both took major risks with La La Land and Moonlight, and they will pay off.
Elsewhere, Robert Zemeckis continues to prove himself a master filmmaker with Allied, while Tom Ford proves that A Single Man was no fluke with the gorgeous thriller Nocturnal Animals. Both should be in the awards conversation. I just wish voters would take Peter Berg more seriously, as he delivers an emotional, action-packed thriller with Patriots Day.
The Nominees — Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Martin Scorsese (Silence), Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
The Next 5 — Pablo Larraín (Jackie), Garth Davis (Lion), Peter Berg (Patriot's Day), Denzel Washington (Fences), Clint Eastwood (Sully)
The Dark Horses — Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Morten Tyldum (Passengers), J.A. Bayona (A Monster Calls), Robert Zemeckis (Allied), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Off the Map — Ben Affleck (Live by Night)
Best Actor
Image: paramount pictures
Like Best Picture, this is a clear two-horse race between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington. What's really interesting is how wildly different these two performances are.
Washington is cranked up to 11 in Fences, which is based on the Tony Award-winning play by August Wilson. The two-time Oscar winner plays an alcoholic, and he seems to relish the opportunity to yell for about half the movie.
Affleck's brilliant work in Manchester by the Sea is the total opposite. He plays a man of few words, yet Affleck communicates volumes with just his eyes. He seems to deserve his first Oscar more than Washington deserves his third, especially after running up against the formidable Javier Bardem back in 2008, when Affleck was nominated for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
Ryan Gosling and Tom Hanks also feel like safe bets in what is shaping up to be an unusually weak year in this category. The last slot is up for grabs, but I'm going with Andrew Garfield because Hacksaw Ridge will likely outperform films such as Gold, The Founder and The Comedian. Let's just hope he doesn't split the vote with his work in Silence, which could end up working against him.
The Nominees — Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Denzel Washington (Fences), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
The Next 5 — Matthew McConaughey (Gold), Michael Keaton (The Founder), Miles Teller (Bleed for This), Will Smith (Collateral Beauty), Robert De Niro (The Comedian)
The Dark Horses — Brad Pitt (Allied), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Mark Wahlberg (Patriot's Day)
Off the Map — Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Snowden
Best Actress
Image: 20th century fox
Natalie Portman and Annette Bening aren't ready to call it quits yet, but this is shaping up to be Emma Stone's statue. The Academy loves its ingenues, and Portman already won for Black Swan. The question is whether Bening will prevail for the first time in her long, esteemed career, during which she lost out on four previous nominations.
Again, there are two slots up for grabs in this category, though Hidden Figures star Taraji P. Henson looks like an increasingly likely nominee, especially now that Viola Davis is campaigning in the supporting category for Fences and Ruth Negga came up short (in my opinion) because she wasn't given much to do in Loving.
So why Amy Adams over peers Jessica Chastain and Marion Cotillard and veterans such as Meryl Streep and Isabelle Huppert? Well, people really seem to like Arrival, which is also shaping up to be the biggest box office hit in this category. Between Adams' work in that sci-fi film and Nocturnal Animals, we'll give her a slight edge.
The Nominees — Emma Stone (La La Land), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures), Amy Adams (Arrival)
The Next 5 — Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Marion Cotillard (Allied), Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
The Dark Horses — Rebecca Hall (Christine), Ruth Negga (Loving), Susan Sarandon (The Meddler), Sally Field (Hello, My Name Is Doris), Rachel Weisz (Denial), Felicity Jones (Rogue One: A Star Wars Story)
Off the Map — Sasha Lane, American Honey
Best Supporting Actor
Image: cbs films
This is the category that is truly up for grabs and anything could happen. Jeff Bridges is shaping up to be nominated even though he gave the third best supporting performance in Hell or High Water, behind Gil Birmingham and Ben Foster. It's a wild world, folks!
Kevin Costner increased his odds with an Oscar-ready clip in Hidden Figures in which he forcibly removes a segregated bathroom sign from NASA. That one scene could be enough to put him over the top, but he faces stiff competition from Lion lead Dev Patel and Moonlight scene-stealer Mahershala Ali.
Most awards experts have agreed Ali stands a better chance at a nomination than his co-stars, but others are still making a case for Trevante Rhodes or Andre Holland instead. Likewise, Michael Shannon has the most awards buzz for Nocturnal Animals, but it's his co-star Aaron Taylor-Johnson who should be in the conversation.
Finally, Liam Neeson's role in Silence is rumored to be very brief, though no one has seen the film yet, so it's hard to assess his chances. Barring a Scorsese miracle, it seems that Lucas Hedges, the young star of Manchester by the Sea, could sneak into the mix.
The Nominees — Dev Patel (Lion), Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
The Next 5 — Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals), Liam Neeson (Silence), Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Timothy Spall (Denial)
The Dark Horses — Trevante Rhodes or Andre Holland (Moonlight), Adam Driver or Tadanobu Asano (Silence), Edgar Ramirez (Gold), Shia LaBeouf (American Honey), Forest Whitaker (Rogue One: A Star Wars Story), Hugh Grant or Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Edward Norton or Michael Pena (Collateral Beauty), Stephen McKinley Henderson, Mykelti Williamson or Jovan Adepo (Fences), Matthew Maher (Live by Night), Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash), Vince Vaughn (Hacksaw Ridge), Peter Sarsgaard (Jackie), Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals), Jimmy O. Yang (Patriot's Day)
Off the Map — David Oyelowo, Queen of Katwe
Best Supporting Actress
Image: vertical entertainment
Well, here's one Oscar statue you can already start engraving.
Unless she's accused of murder (and even then, she'd know how to get away with it), Viola Davis will be named this year's Best Supporting Actress for Fences.
Davis won a Tony Award for her turn in the play and she'll soon add an Oscar to her mantle, in case you're wondering why she chose to opt out of the more competitive lead category.
Michelle Williams, Naomie Harris and Nicole Kidman also feel like safe bets to join Davis as nominees, though the fifth and final slot is wide open. It could go to Greta Gerwig, who is wonderful in 20th Century Women, or to one of the other stars in Hidden Figures, but for my money, Saturday Night Live alum Molly Shannon deserves the nomination for stripping herself of all vanity to play a cancer-stricken mother in Sundance opener Other People.
The Nominees — Viola Davis (Fences), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Molly Shannon (Other People)
The Next 5 — Janelle Monáe (Hidden Figures), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls), Julianne Moore (Maggie’s Plan)
The Dark Horses — Margo Martindale (The Hollars), Rooney Mara (Lion), Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren or Keira Knightley (Collateral Beauty), Laura Dern (The Founder), Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply), Elle Fanning (20th Century Women)
Off the Map — Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
