Opinion: Why would war in Ukraine matter to the United States?

War in Ukraine appears imminent. Russia has amassed about 170,000 troops close to Ukraine’s border, including mechanized units and special ops units. The Pentagon warns that Russia may sponsor a "black flag" attack on newly made “Russian citizens” in eastern Ukraine and use this as an excuse to invade Ukraine again, abrogating the Minsk cease-fire.

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a series of demands on the West and insists that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO and that NATO abandon military activity in Eastern Europe. This would endanger Poland, Romania, Czechia and the Baltic states, and would threaten Sweden and Finland. These demands are “non-starters,” in the words of U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman: “We will not allow anyone to slam closed NATO’s open-door policy.”

By putting forth impossible demands that force a negative response, is Putin laying the groundwork to justify an invasion of Ukraine?

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President Joe Biden said in his recent news conference that Putin would play a “serious and dear price” for invading Ukraine, but also said it might depend on how Russia went about this: “What you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades and it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having to fight" about what to do next.

It was not just unwise, it was dangerous for the United States president to say this.

Biden administration officials have been trying to clear up this loose statement since it has undercut Biden’s own secretary of state, who is trying to convince Russia that there is no “mushy middle ground” and that Russia’s choice is diplomacy or war. Biden’s loose statement also complicates steeling the nerves of U.S. allies in Europe.

After hearing Biden, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tweeted, “There are no minor incursions, just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones.” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson then said that invasion by Russia into Ukraine “on any scale whatever … would be a disaster for the world.”

Biden reiterated support for our NATO obligations, but he shouldn’t forget our commitment to Ukraine. In 1994 Washington brokered a deal called the Budapest Memorandum with Kyiv and Moscow in which Ukraine would eliminate its strategic missiles and bombers and transfer its 1,900 nuclear warheads to Russia. In return, the U.S. and Russia, joined by Britain, provided Ukraine security assurances that “respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine” and pledged to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against that country.

Ukraine is calling in that chip now.

The American public has a lot on its mind — the COVID-19 pandemic, soaring inflation, supply chain problems, crime spikes, an unsecured border, and many others. However, it must understand how serious the implications of a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be and how it could affect each of us.

Once wars start, it can be very difficult to contain them. Witness World War I and its start in Eastern Europe. A war in Ukraine would offer China an opportunity to invade Taiwan. Are Putin and Xi Jinping counting on this division of American military might?

A Russian takeover of Ukraine would significantly change the strategic situation in Europe. Besides adding Ukraine’s 45 million people and industrial base to Russia, it would transform the Black Sea into a Russian lake, put pressure on Turkey, require remobilization of NATO forces and deployment of significant forces to Poland and Romania. Poland and Lithuania would face Russian troops along the corridor from NATO that would be met only with deployment of U.S. and European ground and air forces. A new Iron Curtain is possible.

Ukraine has a right to exist as an independent state despite Putin asserting they are “one people.” This is an important part of international law designed to prevent countries like Germany from claiming Czechia because of Germans living there, as happened in World War II. Bowing to Russian claims would undermine the sovereignty of all countries.

In addition to perhaps tens of thousands of war casualties and the likelihood of a prolonged guerilla war, war would have a staggering effect on the world economy.

What should Biden do? At this moment he should be forging a unified response in Europe to an invasion similar to what President George H.W. Bush did after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. To be a deterrent, this must be accomplished and spelled out very soon. He should publicly say that the Javelin anti-tank missiles we have positioned in western Ukraine may be moved out of depots and closer to the borders. The decline of Europe’s military power probably precludes the introduction of significant European troops, but NATO should indicate that it would use stealth aircraft and ship- and submarine-launched cruise missiles to blunt an invasion.

The U.S. should commit to supporting a Ukrainian insurgency if the country is over-run. The goal is to let Russians know that body bags will be coming home like they did from Afghanistan if it invades Ukraine.

Biden should be clear about what economic sanctions Russia would face: terminated access to the international Swift payment system, restrictions on banks converting rubles to foreign currency, the targeting of wealth belonging to Putin and his cronies and RDIF, Russia’s wealth fund. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would be dead. Are the Russian people ready for economic ruin?

Now is no time for appeasement or wishy-washy talk. We must be firm and credible now if we hope to avoid war in Ukraine and its effect on the world.

Dr. Greg Ganske served in Congress representing Iowa from 1995 to 2003.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Opinion: Potential war in Ukraine matters a great deal to US