Obama Winning in Swing States; Don't Count Santorum Out in Pennsylvania
In some of the big swing states that helped Mitt Romney beat his opponents -- Florida, Ohio -- he's going to have a harder time fighting President Obama, due in part to a better economy. Here's our guide to today's polls and why they matter.
RELATED: GOP Debate: Easy Night for Romney
Findings: Obama's beating Romney 47 percent to 44 percent in four swing states: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Pollster: Rasmussen Methodology: Robocalls to 500 likely voters in each state from March 31 to April 5. Why it matters: It backs up the findings of a poll released earlier this week by USA Today and Gallup showing Obama leading in a survey of voters in a dozen swing states. The presidential election happens not across the country, but in a couple states with closely divided electorates. Caveat: Rasmussen leans right.
RELATED: A Look Back at Our Most Treasured GOP Debate Memories
Findings: Santorum is ahead of Romney in Pennsylvania with 42 percent to Romney's 38 percent. Pennsylvania votes April 24. Pollster: Rasmussen Methodology: Survey of 750 likely voters on April 4. Why it matters: This contradicts Public Policy Polling's survey Thursday that found Santorum trailing Romney with 37 percent to 42 percent. Santorum has said Pennsylvania is a must-win state for him, and he's really nervous about losing it. Caveat: Even if he wins, Santorum likely won't get much credit -- Newt Gingrich won his home state, too, and it hasn't helped him much.
RELATED: The Theory That Mitt Romney Loses by Winning
Findings: Americans spent 16 percent more in March 2012 than they did in March 2011, a sharp increase. They spent an average of $74 a day, compared to $63 in February and $64 a year ago. Pollster: Gallup Methodology: Tracking poll 15,243 adults from March 1 to March 31. Why it matters: The news comes the same day as a positive but not super-exciting jobs report that 120,000 jobs were created in March. Americans averaged $81 a day in March of 2008, at the beginning of the recession, Gallup explains, but spent less than $64 afterward. "This is good news for the nation's retailers and for the Americans who get the new jobs higher spending may create," the pollster says. "What's most important, however, is that the economy build on this positive momentum in the months ahead." Caveat: Some of that spending might be attributable to higher gas prices.
RELATED: What Happens If Santorum Beats Romney in the Midwest?
Findings: Santorum is just barely ahead of Romney in Indiana, with 27 percent to Romney's 26 percent. Indiana votes May 8. Pollster: Howey/ DePauw Methodology: Survey of 503 likely voters from March 26 to March 28. Why it matters: Indiana is one of the states that votes in May that should be friendly turf for Santorum. And yet he's ahead by 1 point, and even Santorum is predicting April will bring a month of losses, so you'd expect the candidate to fall further. Caveat: A lot can happen in a month.
