Obama in Northern Ireland for G-8 Meetings; CNN Poll Shows Obama Drop; Markey Leads in Globe Poll

National Journal

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WHAT'S NEWS

  • Pres. Obama "arrived in Northern Ireland Monday morning" and is headed to "a lakeside golf resort in Enneskillen for meetings with other leaders of the Group of 8 industrial nations on Syria, trade and counterterrorism" (AP).

  • House Speaker John Boehner won't "bring a comprehensive immigration-reform plan to the floor if a majority" of House GOPers "don't support it, sources familiar with his plans said" (Washington Examiner).

  • MA SEN Special: A new Boston Globe poll of LVs, conducted 6/11-14 by UNH Survey Center, shows Rep. Edward Markey (D) leading ex-Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez (R), 54-43% (release). Bill Clinton campaigned for Markey on Saturday evening in Worcester (Worcester Telegram & Gazette). The Markey camp launched a new TV ad on Friday, featuring footage of Obama taped at the rally he attended last week (release). From 4/10-6/5, Markey raised $2.9M and spent $5.9M, leaving him with $2.3M CoH. Gomez raised $1.7M, including a $300K personal loan, and spent over $1.6M, leaving him with just under $1M CoH (Boston Globe).

  • NJ SEN Special: Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) has hired 270 Strategies, run by Obama WH '12 battleground states dir. Mitch Stewart and nat'l field dir. Jeremy Bird (Roll Call).

  • NJ GOV '13: A new Richard Stockton College poll of LVs, conducted 6/8-13, shows Gov. Chris Christie (R) leading state Sen. Barbara Buono (D), 64-24% (release).

  • NYC Mayor '13: City Council Speaker Christine Quinn (D), "whose lead ... appears to have narrowed after weeks of attacks from her rivals, plans to push back on Monday, arguing in what her campaign is billing as a major speech" that she is more qualified and more gutsy than the other" Dem contenders (New York Times).

  • HI SEN: The state's "largest public-sector labor union" endorsed Sen. Brian Schatz (D) over Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) in the Dem primary, "an early lift that could help propel" Schatz's campaign (Honolulu Star-Advertiser).

  • MT SEN: Ex-Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) "is laying the groundwork to run ... and looks very much like a candidate" (Missoulian).

  • CA-17: VP Biden "made a campaign-style appearance in Silicon Valley on Saturday" with Rep. Mike Honda (D), "who is facing an unusually strong primary election challenge next year" (San Jose Mercury News).

  • FL-26: Though he said he has yet to make up his mind about challenging Rep. Joe Garcia (D), Miami-Dade Co. School Board member Carlos Curbelo (R) repeatedly emphasized in an interview that he is "very, very seriously considering" a bid and will likely make a decision in the next two or three weeks (Hotline reporting).

  • FL GOV: '10 nominee Alex Sink (D) "said she hasn't ruled out taking another shot" at Gov. Rick Scott (R) but "said one of the largest factors in her decision right now is whether she could see herself taking on the race without" '02 nominee Bill McBride (D), her late husband (News Service of Florida).

  • NY GOV: According to a new Siena College poll of RVs, conducted 6/9-13, 52% would vote to reelect Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), while 41% would prefer someone else. In the previous poll, conducted 5/13-16, 55% would have voted to reelect Cuomo, and 36% preferred someone else (release).

  • TX redistricting: The state Senate on Friday "passed three redistricting maps with the exact same boundaries" for the state legislature and cong. districts as interim maps drawn last year by a federal court, as "called for" by Gov. Rick Perry (R) (Austin American-Statesman).

  • WV SEN '18: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) "is launching a TV ad to defend himself from attacks" by the NRA, which will be paid "out of his reelection campaign" (Politico).

NUMBER BRUNCHING

  • According to a new CNN/ORC Int'l poll of nat'l adults, conducted 6/11-13, 45% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as POTUS, while 54% disapprove. In the previous poll, conducted 5/17-18, 53% approved of Obama, and 45% disapproved (release).

  • According to a new Time poll of nat'l adults, conducted 6/10-11, 48% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as POTUS, while 44% disapprove (release).

OUR CALL

Hotline editors weigh in on the stories that drive the day

• It's nothing new to marvel at Sen. Mitch McConnell's rightward evolution, given the primary he will face next year. But this weekend's NYT story shows Rand Paul, too, is playing politics. His efforts to emerge from his father's shadow -- with a seat on the Foreign Relations Cmte, or by chatting with the staunch pro-Israel side of the GOP -- are important steps to take before a WH '16 campaign that's anything more than quixotic or a vanity quest.

• The HI Gov't Employees Assn endorsement of Schatz wasn't a foregone conclusion, but it may be evidence of how Schatz's head start helped him: HGEA officials teamed with the national AFSCME and AFL-CIO political shops to throw Schatz a DC fundraiser long before Hanabusa entered the race. The two candidates' second-quarter reports will offer further signs of whether Schatz has been able to consolidate the powerful donors who gave to him early or whether Hanabusa can steal some away.

• With a week to go, the news coming out of MA SEN, from polling to fundraising to adbuys, shows the race trending away from Gomez. Special elections are notoriously unpredictable, but Gomez is running short on time to dramatically alter the trajectory of the contest.

HAIR OF THE DOG

FRESH BREWED BUZZ

  • "No one was naive that peace [in Northern Ireland] would be anything but a long journey" -- Obama, in a speech to 2K people, "mostly students," at Belfast's Waterfront Hall (Belfast Telegraph).

  • VA Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) "and his wife, Maureen, have used taxpayer money for a range of small personal items they should have paid for themselves under state policy, according to spending records." The items include "body wash, sunscreen," both human and dog vitamins, "deodorant, shoe repairs," their children's dry cleaning, "nasal spray," "sleep-inducing elixirs" and "a digestive system 'detox cleanse'" (Washington Post).

  • "I think the work he's done with conservative radio has been really good. From time to time, his inexperience here shows up. Once in a while, you read, 'Rubio's gonna do this, or do that!' Wait a minute, Marco! Let's all be together" -- Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), on working with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) on immigration (New Yorker).

  • Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL) "will expand his political operation in the coming weeks by dispatching" CoS Steven Moore to work for his reelection cmte and a PAC, Republican Operation To Secure And Keep A Majority, that will "focus on helping rank-and-file members -- many of whom are from safe GOP districts -- with fundraising and grassroots, meanwhile keeping an early eye on next year's primaries" (Roll Call).

  • "Now, there seems to be a pattern here. ... Tallahassee, DC, Tallahassee, DC. Hmm. Just saying. Just an observation" -- DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, noting that Sen. Bill Nelson (D) has gone from a FL state legislator, to rep., to state insurance commis., to sen., amid "rumors" that Nelson might mount a GOV bid (News Service of Florida).

  • A Univ. of WI-Platteville engineering student "anticipating a new seat on the UW System's Board of Regents was renounced at the eleventh hour" by Gov. Scott Walker (R), "who withdrew the young man's appointment after finding out he had signed a petition as an 18-year-old freshman" calling for Walker's recall (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

  • "I think we've got a split ballot amongst the Bush senior family. Pretty sure that's the case" -- Ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush (R), on his parents' opinions about a possible WH '16 bid ("This Week").

  • At a street fair in the Park Slope section of Brooklyn on Sunday, ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) appeared with his son, Jordan, who "sported a fedora, plaid plants and a blue shirt," while snacking "on a cheese crepe, courtesy of his dad," who is on a food-stamp budget this week and ate only "three hard boiled eggs for breakfast and two packs of ramen noodles for lunch" (New York Daily News).

  • "The evidence here is that Democrats are scared to lose, and Republicans are scared to win" -- Gomez consultant Brad Todd, on next week's special election (ABC News).

SWIZZLE CHALLENGE

  • Then-Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) hit a home run in the '79 Congressional Baseball Game.

  • The winner is Tyler Kusma, and here's his Swizzle Challenge: "What did the Cable Act (1922) do?" The 3rd correct e-mailer gets to submit the next question.

NJ'S EARLY BIRD SPECIALS

SHOT...

"I'm not married, but I think marriages work this way. That's the way life is. You kick their ass one day and you'll work with them the next" -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), comparing working with Obama on immigration to marriage (New Yorker).

...CHASER

"Marriage is like a tense, unfunny version of 'Everybody Loves Raymond,' only it doesn't last 22 minutes. It lasts forever" -- "Pete" ("Knocked Up").

Reid Wilson, Editor-in-Chief

Steven Shepard, Executive Editor