Not Democrats, not Republicans. Who are Florida’s independent voters?

Haley Osborn used to be a Democrat. But she just can’t do it anymore.

In fact, she doesn’t want to be a part of any party.

“I feel neither party is truly interested in fixing our society’s problems with crime, economic disparities, debt or the environment,” said Osborn, 36. “Rather, they are interested in maintaining power and pushing agendas that limit freedoms.”

Osborn, a resident of Ormond Beach, said she wants a presidential candidate who is strict on crime and believes people should be in charge of their own bodies.

Such a candidate “does not exist,” she said.

Her vote in November will likely be based on trying to stop the candidate she dislikes more, she said — rather than voting for someone she’s excited about supporting.

Osborn is part of a growing trend in Florida. Both Democrats and Republicans have lost hundreds of thousands of voters who have decided to become unaffiliated with either party. Women were more likely than men to switch from a party to no-party status, according to the Times analysis, with women making up 55% of those who dropped their party affiliation since 2020.

The majority of women who switched — some 149,000 voters — came from the Democratic Party. Fewer women made the opposite switch from no-party to Democrat during this time period, narrowing Democrats’ share of female voters.

In contrast, the share of women registered as Republican and as no-party increased slightly in the last four years.

The moves signal a disenchantment with traditional parties, as well as a potential shift toward more moderate politics and away from extreme partisanship, according to interviews with political science experts and voters. Younger people, women and Hispanic voters have led the way in the past four years in trading in the Republican and Democratic parties for no-party status, according to a Tampa Bay Times analysis of over 1 million voters in the state who have shifted their affiliation since 2020.

Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster and a lecturer at the University of Miami, said no-party voters — who make up about 26% of the state’s active registered voters — could be key in deciding the outcome of the 2024 elections, particularly in close races.

“They are the fastest growing segment of the electorate in Florida and they can prove decisive in a lot of races,” Amandi said, “particularly in those races that are going to be decided by less than 10 percentage points.”

“Don’t give me a label”

Peter Massing, a 67-year-old in Jacksonville who in 2020 registered as a no-party voter, said the two-party system doesn’t adequately portray his views.

He voted for Democrat Jimmy Carter while registered as a Republican and for Republican Ronald Reagan while registered as a Democrat. When Ralph Nader started the Green Party, Massing said, he became one of the Nader’s Raiders.

“Don’t give me a label,” he said.

Experts say this aversion to labeling is especially attractive to younger voters. At 46, the median age of people shifting to no-party affiliation since early 2020 is seven years lower than the overall electorate average of 53.

Eduardo Gamarra, the co-director of Florida International University’s Latino Public Opinion Forum, said the rollback of reproductive rights and gun safety, as well as culture wars over public education and other issues, could have contributed to increased frustration with both traditional parties among young people.

But the disenchantment is not limited to young voters.

For years, Avelino Caride, 61, was a loyal Republican.

But in 2021, the Miami resident switched his voter registration to no-party affiliation. He said he didn’t like what the GOP had become under the influence of former President Donald Trump, saying he felt it had been “hijacked by MAGA-loving extreme radicals.”

He said he voted for Joe Biden in 2020 — his first time voting for a Democratic presidential candidate — and plans to do so again in 2024 “unless a better option suddenly becomes available.”

Hispanic voters are more likely to shift to no-party

Hispanic voters are nearly a quarter of all those shifting to no-party-affiliated, despite making up just 18% of the electorate.

A Florida International University poll found that 13% of Hispanic voters felt neither the Democratic nor the Republican party best represents their values. The poll found that nearly one in five respondents had considered switching their party in the last year, with the highest number considering a switch from Democrat to Republican (38%) or to independent (23%).

Among newly registered Hispanic voters in the past four years, 42% registered as no-party.

“There’s a lack of confidence in political institutions generally,” said Gamarra, who conducted the poll. “And they don’t see Democrats or Republicans as really providing them with an option.”

Voters in Osceola and Orange counties, bases for the Puerto Rican communities in the state, are more likely to switch to no-party than those in other counties, according to the analysis.

Amandi said voters coming from the island might have a reduced familiarity with the traditional parties and a reluctance to be identified with either.

And Hispanic voters who gained citizenship more recently may be less likely to be in families with long traditions of being Republicans or Democrats, Gamarra said.

No-party voters still tend to lean left or right

No-party voters are not just blank slates. A national survey by the Pew Research Center found that even when voters registered as independents, over 80% still lean toward the Republican or Democratic parties.

Alex Patton, a Republican pollster, said most no-party voters act like “closeted partisans.”

Still, voters who shifted to no-party affiliation say they have appreciated getting some distance from what they say can be a negative, biased or toxic political climate. They say they also get fewer fundraising phone calls from political parties.

About 20% of no-party voters in Florida are inactive, meaning they have not cast a vote or interacted with elections offices in a while but are still eligible to cast a ballot. In contrast, 17% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans are inactive.

Patton said no-party voters are “more likely to be so grossed out by politics they just don’t vote.” He added that no-party voters tend not to tune in to politics until later in an election year than voters affiliated with the major parties. (Florida is also a closed-primary state, meaning no-party voters cannot cast ballots in partisan primary elections.)

Patton said some voters also migrate away from traditional parties when they think the party isn’t being “pure” enough in upholding its values.

No-party affiliation “is a place you migrate to settle when displaced, a refugee camp of the disillusioned,” he said.

Osborn said not being able to vote in primaries is the drawback she sees to no-party affiliation but said she enjoys the independence from traditional parties.

“I believe well-educated people can think for themselves,” Osborn said. “I do not engage with political content unless it is to educate myself on candidates and laws.”

“My loyalties lie with free thought, humanism and education, not a political party with an agenda,” Osborn said.