Northern Michigan seeing 'wildfire spread' of COVID variants

Apr. 6—TRAVERSE CITY — The two-week average of those in the Munson Healthcare region who tested positive for COVID-19 hit a new high of 16 percent, with 91 people hospitalized — 53 at Munson Medical Center in Traverse City.

There are also 638 cases per 100,000 people, Munson reported Tuesday. The numbers have jumped dramatically from just five days ago, when the positivity rate was 13 percent, cases were 586 per 100,000 and 81 people were hospitalized.

"That rate is the highest we've seen during this pandemic, which is concerning," said Dr. Christine Nefcy, Munson's chief medical officer.

At the same time, nearly 44 percent of northern Michigan residents have had at least one dose of the vaccine, higher than the 36 percent of residents across the state, according to the state's vaccine dashboard.

"I shudder to think where we'd be with our hospitalizations if we had not had that breadth of coverage," Nefcy said.

Munson is sharing its weekly vaccine allocation with health departments, private practices and clinics, while still inoculating employees who are new or who have changed their minds about the vaccine since the first wave was given to frontline healthcare workers in December.

Much of the recent surge in cases can be attributed to highly contagious variants now spreading across the nation, health officials say.

In addition to the variants, Michigan's spike is also because of the relatively low numbers seen early on in the pandemic that left a large number of people susceptible to the disease, as well as the state's move to open restaurants and high school sports, Nefcy said.

That led to the perfect storm, which is being driven by unvaccinated young people, she said.

District Health Department #10 reported 31 infections with the variant have been identified in five of the district's 10 counties, most commonly in Wexford County, where there are 12 cases.

"We know that there's a lot more than that," said Dr. Jennifer Morse, medical director of the department, who described a "wildfire spread" in some areas.

"We've seen some very big, rapidly developing outbreaks," Morse said. "It's just much more communicable and spreads much more easily."

There have been four cases of the B.1.1.7 variant reported in Grand Traverse County in the last two weeks, said Wendy Hirschenberger, health officer and director of the Grand Traverse County Health Department, adding that all of the COVID metrics are rising and have been for days.

In the past week there have been 43 cases identified in school-age children, Hirschenberger reported. Over the last 30 days, 76 percent of cases have been among those 50 years old and younger, while 20 percent have been in the 19 and under age group.

The Health Department of Northwest Michigan reported Tuesday that there were 1,056 new cases in March compared to 345 cases in February. About 20 percent of the new cases are in the 13-19 age group.

Officials are also fearful about the effects of spring break travel, which will not be fully felt for about two more weeks, Nefcy said. Anyone who has traveled should quarantine for 14 days upon return and should get tested, she said.

Those who have received both doses of the vaccine do not have to quarantine, but should keep their COVID card with them or a picture of it on their phone.

"It's important to be able to show proof of your vaccine," Nefcy said.

The surge in cases among young people had the GTC health department on Monday directing all middle and high schools to go back to virtual learning until April 12.

Hirschenberger said school superintendents were looking to the health department for direction.

"We hope that during the next four days we can get a clearer picture of where those cases are," Hirschenberger said, and those days are needed to see if the trend will continue or will level off.

Now that vaccination has been opened up to anyone 16 and up, people should visit the GTCHD website or the website of their local health department and get in line, Hirschenberger said.

The Pfizer vaccine, which is the most predominant one provided to the GTCHD, can be given to those who are 16 and up, while the Moderna and Johnson &Johnson vaccines are for those 18 and up. Vaccine trials are now being done on children younger than 16.

Health officials are urging anyone who is having COVID symptoms to get tested, as well as anyone who has had a known exposure to COVID to get tested at about 5-8 days after the exposure.

In Michigan there have been 246 breakthrough cases, or people who've come down with COVID-19 after they've been vaccinated. Of those, 11 were hospitalized and three died.

With the nearly 3 million who've been vaccinated in the state those numbers are actually a little better than the 95 percent efficacy rate of the two predominant vaccines — Moderna and Pfizer, Nefcy said. About 110,300 people in Michigan have been vaccinated with the J&J vaccine.

"That's a higher than 95 percent efficacy rate," Nefcy said. "What that tells you on one hand is that this vaccine works."

On the other hand, she said, it's important with such a high positivity rate that people continue to mask, social distance and follow other COVID guidelines.

"It's important to realize that those people did not die from the vaccine — they died from COVID-19," Nefcy said.

The average age of those hospitalized with COVID has changed from the 70s in November through February to 61 now, Nefcy said. Most are hospitalized for 6-7 days, with far fewer patients are on ventilators, she said. Patients are no longer in COVID units, with their level of acuity determining if they need to be in an intensive care unit.