North Korea's Musudan Missile Finally Flies
North Korea has finally found some success with its Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) following four failures. The fifth and six missiles traveled a short distance before disappearing from radar. The successes prove that North Korea is making steady progress in the ability to send a nuclear warhead more than 2,000 miles.
The Musudan missile first appeared in 2007 but wasn't actually tested until April of this year. The first test occurred on April 15, but the missile exploded shortly after takeoff. The second and third tests flew one and three kilometers, respectively, before exploding. The fourth, on May 31, reportedly exploded on the launching pad and was rumored to have killed or wounded test personnel on site.
The fifth Musudan missile was launched at 5:58 AM local time Wednesday from a missile launch facility near the North Korean city of Wonsan. The missile flew for 93 miles before exploding over the Sea of Japan. The sixth missile, launched an hour and a half later, flew for 250 miles before either disintegrating or exploding. North Korean state news later said the missile flew to an altitude of 877 miles.
The Musudan is a liquid-fueled, nuclear-capable missile fired from a mobile launch vehicle, making it difficult to find and destroy. It is believed to be descended from the Cold War-era R-27 "Zyb" submarine-launched missile to which it bears an obvious resemblance. The IRBM has a theoretical range of 2,174 miles, but is obviously having a hard time reaching that range.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was quoted in state media as saying his country now has "the sure capability to attack…the Americans in the Pacific operation theatre." Kim said his country's nuclear weapons were necessary to pose a "constant threat to the enemy" to deter "the U.S. and other hostile forces". Here's a North Korean state video news segment with pictures from the launch:
Experts believe North Korea is pushing for the Musudan to give it the capability to hit American bases on the island of Guam with a nuclear weapon. The ability to threaten American territory with nukes would give Kim a level of nuclear deterrence against the United States. Other experts believe the Musudan is also aimed at China, in order to deter a Chinese intervention if North Korea deteriorates.
The cause of the missile test failures-and successes-are unknown. We don't know why the first missiles exploded. Some experts have speculated there was a basic flaw in the in Musudan's design, yet it seems unlikely that the North Koreans could correct such a major flaw in just three weeks.
The fifth and sixth flights this week were not what is traditionally considered a success in the missile world, but they did manage to avoid exploding right after takeoff. Lacking voluminous knowledge of past ballistic missile tests, helpful allies, and computer modeling, the North Koreans appear to be fans of the "keep trying until the rockets stop blowing up" world of testing. And it appears to be working. Although previous failures invited ridicule, nobody is laughing anymore.
Except Kim Jong-un.
