North Carolina runoff tests GOP efforts to boost female candidates

A Republican runoff in North Carolina on Tuesday represents the only chance left this year for the House GOP to follow through on one of its key promises for the 2020 cycle: Elect more women.

Pediatrician Joan Perry has powerful allies in her corner to help her capture the GOP nomination for the special election, including all 13 Republican women currently serving in the House. She’s been the beneficiary of more than $1 million in support from groups set up to support Republican women.

But Perry is also running headlong into obstacles — namely, a conservative power structure backing her opponent, fellow physician Greg Murphy, including an influential male member of Congress from the state.

The race sets up as a test of whether GOP primary voters see gender diversity as an important value in the way Democrats did in the 2018 midterms, when voters sent a wave of Democratic women to Congress.

But even as the number of Democratic women surged last year, Republicans saw the number of women in their ranks shrink exponentially after the 2018 midterms, catalyzing those that were left to sound the alarm.

Perry isn’t touting her gender explicitly on the trail. But “we don’t have to look closely to see that women are underrepresented, particularly conservative women,” Perry said of the House Republican conference.

“I’ve never made a statement that I’m running based on the fact that I’m a woman,” she continued. “I’m running on my qualifications.”

The Eastern North Carolina district is solidly Republican: President Donald Trump won more than 60 percent of the vote in the 2016 presidential election, and GOP Rep. Walter Jones held the seat from the 1994 midterm election until he died earlier this year.

A whopping 17 GOP candidates sought the nomination to succeed Jones. Murphy finished first in the April primary, but his 23 percent share of the vote was below the 30-percent threshold to clinch the nomination. That set up the runoff with Perry, who finished second with 15 percent.

Almost immediately, Republican outside groups focused on electing women jumped in. Winning for Women’s new super PAC spent nearly $900,000 in the district on behalf of Perry, including two attack ads against Murphy and a Newt Gingrich robocall-turned-radio ad.

“If we want to see different results, we [have] got to do something differently. And that means playing in primaries,” said Olivia Perez-Cubas, spokesperson for Winning for Women PAC. “She’s a qualified conservative candidate who’d make a great member of Congress. It’s really just a bonus that she’s a woman. We’re hoping that this race sets the tone for what’s to come in 2020.”

In addition to the 13 House GOP women, Perry also has the support of two other significant Republican women: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

But two leading Freedom Caucus members are at odds with their Republican colleagues. Reps. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) threw their weight behind Murphy, who they expect to join the Freedom Caucus if elected. House Freedom Action, the Freedom Caucus’ electoral arm, has spent $236,000 on ads opposing Perry and is boosting Murphy as the anti-establishment candidate ready to fight against “the gators in the swamp.”

“This is not a race about gender,” said Meadows. “It’s really a race about one candidate willing to join the Freedom Caucus, and the other candidate not being willing to.”

Meadows said the Freedom Caucus’ political apparatus consistently supports women conservatives in races, but in this contest they believe Murphy will be the most loyal to Trump.

Perry pushed back on Meadows’ assessment, saying her support from Susan B. Anthony List, FreedomWorks and a local tea party chapter is evidence that she is conservative and supports Trump.

And Perry said she didn’t want to promise to join the Freedom Caucus before being elected because she wants to go to Washington “beholden to no one.”

“My values certainly overlap with the Freedom Caucus,” said Perry, “but it is important for me to go to Washington representing the constituents and then make the decision of what groups I might become associated with.”

Olivia Perez-Cubas, the Winning for Women spokesperson, said Meadows’ decision to back Murphy over Perry plays into perceptions of women Republicans as less conservative solely based on their gender.

“It’s low-hanging fruit that women are automatically painted as more moderate than men — even if their record suggests otherwise, and it’s not accurate,” said Perez-Cubas.

Murphy and his allies have sought to label Perry a moderate Republican with liberal tendencies, however — despite her anti-abortion-rights and pro-border-wall positions. Tea Party Express, which endorsed Murphy, cited a campaign commercial that Perry and her husband, Jimbo, cut in 2012 for then-Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre in a neighboring district.

“That was a disqualifier for me,” said Sal Russo, co-founder of Tea Party Express.

Should the outside groups and national Republican efforts fail to push Perry over the finish line, the party will have to answer questions about its base’s willingness to promote women and what strategies to employ beyond throwing money into races.

In a different special congressional election in North Carolina earlier this year, one of the leading female candidates, Leigh Brown, received little to no help from national Republicans after being encouraged by a number of them to jump in. “That's a little frustrating to have initial conversations and then follow up and be ghosted,” Brown said in an interview with POLITICO.

Perry’s had a very different reception, and those who’ve pushed her along in the race are optimistic that she’s within striking distance of Murphy.

The partner PAC for the conservative Susan B. Anthony List spent $314,000 “to mobilize pro-life voters” for Perry, including digital ads, voter mail, TV and radio ads that will air through Tuesday, and live voter calls.

Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony List, called attacks on Perry’s conservative chops “raw stupid politics,” and she said she is optimistic Perry will win on Tuesday.

“It’s not, for us, about Republican women versus Republican men,“ said Dannenfelser. “It would be hard to outflank her conservatism. She is who the president needs at this moment.”