NOAA Predicts Above Average 2024 Hurricane Season, Highest May Prediction Ever
Warm waters and a blossoming La Niña could spell trouble ahead of the upcoming hurricane season, at least according to NOAA.
The agency is calling for 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. This is their busiest May outlook ever issued.
An average season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
Their predictions come on the heels of Colorado State University. In April, they predicted a potentially hyperactive year.
Let’s break the factors down a little further.
Much-above-average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic could drive an active year into possibly hyperactive territory. Warm waters that are at least 80 degrees are rocket fuel to hurricanes. These water temperatures are not just evident at the surface, but far below. This means that hurricanes have even more fuel to grow.
The Canary Current also has warmer-than-normal anomalies. Cooler-than-average waters are evident in the subtropical Atlantic. This configuration is what is referred to as a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation pattern, which correlates to increased seasonal activity.
This pattern also increases overall instability across the basin, something else storms need to form, grow, and sustain themselves.
The cooler waters in this area also hint that strong high pressure may form in this area during the season. This would be the Azores-Bermuda High. A stronger Azores-Bermuda High would steer more storms toward the U.S. Coast.
Last year, this high pressure system was weak to virtually nonexistent, which is why threats to the United States were relatively minimal. Canada, however, did get more strikes.
The other factor in their predictions lies in the Pacific Ocean, just off the coast of equatorial South America.
The warmer-than-average waters we saw last year has since disappeared, and we are now seeing average to below-average temperatures in this area. This is all part of a natural pattern known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Typically, trade winds blow warmer water from the coast of South America. These warmer waters at the surface are then replaced by cooler water below in a process known as upwelling.
When waters are warmer than usual, this is called El Nino. This happens when trade winds that blow warmer water across the Pacific Ocean relax, causing that water to be pushed back to the east.
In La Nina, stronger-than-normal trade winds cause warm water to travel across the pacific quicker, leading to increased upwelling and below-average temperatures.
In an El Nino, wind shear increases across the Atlantic Ocean, meaning less storms can form and strengthen. Typically, El Nino seasons are not busy. Last year was an exception, but El Nino is also known to have an effect on steering currents. That is why most storms did not impact land.
In a La Nina, wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean relaxes, allowing more storms to form and grow stronger. These seasons are generally more active.
When water anomalies in the equitaoral pacific are neither warmer nor cooler than average, we call this “ENSO Neutral.” Typically, the effects on seasonal activity are negligible. Regardless of ENSO Neutral or La Nina phases, the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf Coast are more prone to landfalling storms.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends November 30. The WDHN First Alert Storm Season will keep you updated on air and online all season long, including if a storm threatens The Wiregrass.
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