NOAA forecasts 'very active hurricane season' in 2024. See how many storms are predicted

Greg Giesen, Delaware News Journal
Updated ·2 min read
1

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a very active hurricane season, according to its forecast released Thursday.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

When is hurricane season?

Hurricane season spans from June 1 to Nov. 30.

How many storms is NOAA forecasting for 2024?

NOAA Hurricane outlook
NOAA Hurricane outlook

NOAA's forecast is predicting:

  • Seventeen to 25 total named storms — winds of 39 mph or higher

  • Eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes — winds of 74 mph or higher

  • Four to seven are expected to be major hurricanes — a category 3 storm with winds at 111 mph or greater.

NOAA forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

This is the most storms the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has ever predicted in a preseason outlook. "All the ingredients are in place for an active season," said National Weather Service director Ken Graham at a press conference in Washington, D.C.

Hurricane forecast: Colorado State meteorologists predict very active storm season

How does NOAA forecast compare to others?

2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names
2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names

Forecasters from Colorado State University are predicting 23 named storms this year. Of those 23 storms, 11 will become hurricanes and five will become major hurricanes.

Accuweather.com is predicting 20 to 25 named storms with eight to 12 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes.

Is La Nina the reason for the high number of predicted storms?

According to NOAA, scientists are predicting a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.

Doyle Rice contributed to this story.

This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: Hurricane season 2024: How many storms NOAA is forecasting for 2024