‘No solace’ for Rishi Sunak amid brutal local election losses, polling guru Sir John Curtice warns

Britain’s top polling guru has said there will be “no solace” for Rishi Sunak as a brutal set of local elections saw Reform UK push the Tories into third in a series of council seats.

Despite finishing narrowly ahead of Nigel Farage’s right-wing challenger party in the Blackpool South by-election, which Labour won comfortably, the Conservatives were beaten by Reform in 16 of the 25 seats up for grabs on Sunderland City Council.

Alarm bells will be ringing in No 10 Downing Street as the second day of counting council and mayoral results gets underway. after a disastrous night of results for the Conservatives in local elections across the UK.

Professor Sir John Curtice said it is “not looking very good for the Conservatives”.

Britain’s top polling guru told the BBC: “We are going to end up with the big headline being that the Conservatives are in at least as big a hole as they were 12 months ago.

“These results do not look as though they are going to provide that much solace to 10 Downing Street.”

And pollster Luke Tryl, UK director at More In Common, said the Conservatives’ win over Reform “pales in comparison” to the scale of the swing towards Labour.

He told The Independent: “The fact the Tories managed to hold 2nd place in Blackpool South, even if by the narrowest of margins, will be important psychologically for Tory MPs.

“But the truth is what will worry the Tories most is Labour hitting nearly 60 per cent of the vote, some 25 points higher than the combined Tory and Reform vote, and having achieved the third highest swing from the Conservatives in recent memory.

“At that level of Labour performance, the impact of Reform pales in comparison.”

Mr Sunak has been repeatedly warned that Reform could deprive the Conservatives of tens of seats in this year’s general election.

And Mr Farage is weighing a return to frontline politics with the party, a move which could add to the scale of defeat facing the Conservatives. Tory candidate David Jones finished just 117 votes above Reform’s Mark Butcher in Blackpool South with 3,218.

Labour won the red wall seat comfortably in a major blow to Mr Sunak’s hopes of holding together the electoral coalition formed by Boris Johnson in 2019, with Chris Webb gaining 10,825 votes.

The result is the third biggest swing toward Labour in by-election history, representing a 26 per cent swing from the 2019 general election. Party sources said it is “much bigger” than the 12.5 per cent national swing needed to win a majority at the next general election.

Sir Keir Starmer said the “seismic” win would be the “most important result” of the local elections. The Labour leader said: “This is the one contest where voters had the chance to send a message to Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives directly, and that message is an overwhelming vote for change.”

He added: “The swing towards the Labour Party in Blackpool South is truly historic and shows that we are firmly back in the service of working people.”

Of the 78 years Blackpool South has been a constituency, it has been held by a Conservative MP for 57.

Labour also celebrated a series of “historic” council gains overnight, winning Hartlepool, Thurrock and Rushmoor.

Three years ago Labour lost the Hartlepool parliamentary by-election to the Conservatives - an event that led Sir Keir Starmer to consider quitting as party leader.

A party spokesman said: “Winning back Hartlepool council is a groundbreaking moment after the disappointing results we saw here in 2021… making gains here shows that the party is on track to win a general election.”

Speaking after his win in Blackpool South, Mr Webb said: "People no longer trust the Conservatives. Prime Minister: do the decent thing, admit you've failed and call a general election."

Mr Benton won the seat, which had been held since 1997 by Labour, for the Tories under Boris Johnson in 2019. He had a narrow majority of just 3,690.

In February, Mr Benton was suspended from the House of Commons for 35 days after being found to have breached the rules.

The House of Commons committee on standards found the MP had given the impression he was “corrupt” and “for sale” after he was secretly filmed saying he could table parliamentary questions and provide “behind the scenes” information for up to £4,000 a month.

Mr Benton was prepared to leak market-sensitive information to an investment fund and ask parliamentary questions on its behalf, in breach of parliamentary lobbying rules, an undercover investigation for The Times found.

He was caught on camera telling undercover reporters posing as investors how he was willing to take actions that would break Parliament’s lobbying rules.

In a meeting in March 2023, Mr Benton described how he could support a fake investment fund, which he believed was set up by an Indian businessman looking to make investments in the UK betting and gaming sector, by attempting to water down proposed gambling reforms.

Mr Benton also offered a “guarantee” to provide a copy of an upcoming gambling white paper to the business at least two days before publication, potentially allowing it to benefit from market-sensitive information.

He also said he could table parliamentary written questions and said he had previously done it on behalf of a company.

Mr Benton said he could offer “the direct ear of a minister who is actually going to make these decisions” and speak to them outside the Commons voting lobby.

The MP agreed with a fee proposed by the reporters in the range of £2,000 to £4,000 a month for two days’ work.