Is No Labels about to face plant?

Donors to No Labels are starting to fear that the third-party group missed its window for launching a much-hyped presidential bid and are questioning whether to make future financial commitments to the organization.

Those fears have intensified after two high-profile No Labels candidate targets — former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat — passed on the chance to run for president, and as the party’s planned April presidential nominating convention approaches without a clear ticket in place.

“No Labels just missed one heck of an opportunity to potentially be viable, and now I don’t know that they can be viable,” said Jim Teague, the CEO of a Texas oil and gas company and a No Labels donor. “I don’t know who they can possibly get to run that would generate excitement that Joe Manchin would have generated,” he said, adding that it’s “pretty doubtful” he will donate to the organization in the future.

No Labels officials say they are continuing to move forward with plans to launch a presidential run and are looking at “sometime after Super Tuesday to determine if we offer our line and who would be on it,” spokesperson Maryanne Martini said.

The sense that there is a lack of clarity around the group’s 2024 plans — including the absence of a slate of candidates — has caused anxiety among at least the half dozen donors who spoke with POLITICO.

The group last held a meeting with supporters on February 23. But, according to Martini, they focused on a successful lawsuit against hostile domain squatting on NoLabels.com — not the presidential race or updates on the candidate selection process.

No Labels is choosing candidates with “a very secret process,” said Bill Kunkler, who has been a donor and supporter of the group since 2018. He said possible names are being vetted by a small group of leaders and advisers.

“There’s going to be a proper vetting process so that we don’t end up with somebody where there are surprises,” said Kunkler, who was a key fundraiser for Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan when they ran for president and vice president in 2012. “People might call this a ‘smoke-filled room’ process, but my response is, they can either vote for us and our candidate in November or not. What’s smoke-filled about that?”

Kunkler shrugged off concerns that the group had not made a candidate announcement with just days before Super Tuesday. “We have time.”

Manchin himself recently echoed a common criticism about the group from Democrats, and said it needed to take a "hard look" at a possible presidential unity ticket. Such a run would "basically work as a spoiler,” he said, particularly if it can only get on the ballot in a handful of battleground states.

Murry Bowden, a Texas businessperson who has been a longtime donor of No Labels, said he was “disappointed” that Manchin didn’t run and called the senator’s decision alongside Hogan’s “a setback” for the group.

“Those types of people would have been good for them to be on the ticket, and if they had gotten both of them, it would have been great,” he said. “They’re out, so I’m not sure who’s up next, if anyone.”

This comes as the general election is clearly shaping up to be a choice between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden — two candidates backers of No Labels have said they won’t support.

“Everyone’s antsy because they’re nervous because they hate the alternative,” said one longtime No Labels donor, who was granted anonymity because he didn’t have authorization from his employer to speak to the media. The donor added that he thinks No Labels is in a bind. “No Labels doesn’t want to run someone just to say we ran someone.”

The group said in December that it would be operating or on the ballot in 34 states by the spring. While No Labels officials say that they are currently operating in a total of 33 states, they have only qualified for the ballot in 16 of them.

Martini said that the lag was the fault of the states, which can take weeks or months to complete the certification process, and insisted it was not due to anything they had done. “We can complete all of our work, and it can and does take states weeks or months to do their certification,” she said.

But a person with direct knowledge of the group’s efforts to put together a presidential ticket, who was granted anonymity to speak freely about it, described the operation as “incompetence day after day.”

The person noted that when a No-Labels-allied super PAC launched this year to ostensibly support a bipartisan presidential ticket, it did not involve staff from those candidates the group was recruiting to run. No Labels stressed that any super PAC is legally separate from the group’s main nonprofit. But the person noted that formation of the group prior to the selection of a candidate made it unlikely that the super PAC — which is legally prohibited from coordinating with candidates — would operate effectively.

No Labels responded to the allegations by insisting that it is legally prohibited from coordinating with any super PAC due to its status as a nonprofit.

The group continues to keep the door open for Nikki Haley to be its candidate despite the former U.N. ambassador having pledged to remain in the GOP primary through Super Tuesday.

But Haley joining a No Labels ticket could be a long shot.

“All the talk about the independent, No Labels, all that — I haven't talked to anybody about that. I know that they have sent smoke signals that they want me to talk to them, but I'm a Republican,” she said at a gathering with reporters in Washington, D.C., on Friday. “I'm trying to really talk about a way forward for Republicans.”

And regardless of how Haley personally feels about No Labels, joining the ticket could potentially subject her to “sore loser” laws that prohibit her from being on the ballot in certain states under another party line.

“I’d be pissed if I was a donor,” said the person who has direct knowledge of No Labels’ vetting process, noting that the ticket, if it comes together, will likely include lesser names at the top of it. “It’s like buying a ticket to see Taylor Swift, and you show up to see Madonna fall off the stage.”

No Labels, for now, says it is plowing ahead. The group has regular Zoom calls with supporters where they discuss the status of getting on the ballots and encourage relaying names of potential presidential candidates.

Some supporters would like to see Romney or Ryan on the ballot, even though No Labels “has not spoken” to either of the veteran Republicans, Martini said.

Sam Stein and Natalie Allison contributed to this report.