How No. 3 seed Kentucky and No. 14 seed Oakland match up — with a game prediction

How the NCAA Tournament South Region No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats (23-9) and the No. 14 seed Oakland Golden Grizzlies (23-11) match up at each position for Thursday’s round of 64 men’s basketball game at PPG Paints Arena (seating capacity 19,000) in Pittsburgh — with a game prediction:

Small forward

▪ Kentucky freshman Justin Edwards (8.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 48.8% FGs, 37% treys) had a rough go in UK’s 97-87 loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. The 6-foot-8, 203-pound Philadelphia product made only 1 of 6 shots, missed all three of his 3-point tries, and finished with two points. The performance was a late-season anomaly for Edwards, who has averaged 11.3 points over UK’s last six games, including four double-figure scoring efforts.

▪ Oakland’s Isaiah Jones (5.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 57.3% FGs, 28 steals) did not play in the Horizon League Tournament due to an ankle injury but has returned to practice this week. A 6-7, 213-pound sophomore from Nashville who transferred to Oakland from Detroit Mercy, Jones has not scored in double figures in the last 12 games in which he has appeared.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Power forward

▪ Kentucky’s Adou Thiero (7.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 49.6 FG%, 27 blocks) had seven points, five rebounds and three blocked shots in the loss to Texas A&M. A 6-8, 222-pound sophomore from Leetsdale, Pennsylvania, Thiero will be playing some 28 miles from his hometown when the Wildcats visit Pittsburgh.

▪ Oakland’s Trey Townsend (16.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg, team highs of 106 assists and 45 steals) is the Horizon League Player of the Year after leading the Golden Grizzlies to both the conference regular-season and tournament titles. A 6-6, 228-pound senior from Oxford, Michigan, Townsend was brilliant in Oakland’s 83-76 win over Milwaukee in the Horizon League Tournament finals, going for 38 points, 11 rebounds and five assists in 40 minutes of court time. In Oakland’s four regular-season games vs. power conference foes, Townsend averaged 20.3 points and 7.3 boards.

Advantage: Oakland.

Center

▪ Kentucky sophomore Ugonna Onyenso (3.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, team-high 61 blocked shots) was not a big factor in the loss to Texas A&M. The 7-1, 247-pound sophomore from Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria, had two points, two rebounds and two blocks in 19 minutes vs. the Aggies. In UK’s past three games, Onyenso has blocked nine total shots.

▪ Oakland big man Chris Conway (10.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 54.4% FGs) had his first double-double of the season in the Horizon League tourney finals with 10 points and 11 rebounds in the win over Milwaukee. A 6-9, 221-pound senior from Napierville, Illinois, Conway blocked eight shots in the three games of the conference tournament.

Advantage: Even.

Shooting guard

▪ Antonio Reeves (20 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 50.8% FGs, 44.1% treys) will return to the NCAA Tournament after he endured a 1-of-15 shooting nightmare in UK’s 75-69 loss to Kansas State in last season’s round of 32. A 6-6, 195-pound super-senior from Chicago, Reeves has had an All-America-level season in 2023-24. Of UK’s 32 games, Reeves has scored 20 points or more in 19 of them.

▪ Oakland’s Blake Lampman (13.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 79 assists vs. 44 turnovers, 36.9% treys) is a streaky 3-point marksman. In Oakland’s final two regular season games, the 6-3, 184-pound super-senior from Haslett, Michigan, made a combined 9 of 20 3-pointers. However, in the three Horizon League Tournament contests, Lampman went 4 of 20 from behind the arc. In Oakland losses against Big Ten foes Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan State, Lampman hit 10 of 25 treys and averaged 11.3 points.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Point guard

▪ Kentucky’s D.J. Wagner (10.3 ppg, 93 assists/43 turnovers, 41.3% FGs) had eight points, four rebounds and five assists in the loss to Texas A&M, but made only 3 of 9 shots, 1 of 4 3-pointers. A 6-4, 192-pound freshman from Camden, New Jersey, Wagner enters the NCAA Tournament having made 1 of 8 3-point shots over the past two games. However, over UK’s previous six contests, Wagner has 18 assists vs. seven turnovers.

▪ Oakland’s DQ Cole (8.7 ppg, 4 rpg, 70 assists vs. 51 turnovers, 48.3% FGs) averaged 12.7 points in the Horizon League tourney, and had a 20-point game vs. Cleveland State in a 74-71 Golden Grizzlies win in the semifinals. A 6-3, 189-pound junior from Pontiac, Michigan, Cole had seven assists in the league tournament finals vs. Milwaukee. Coming on late, Cole has scored in double figures in six of Oakland’s final nine games.

Advantage: Even.

Bench

▪ Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard (12.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, team highs with 144 assists and 80 steals, 54.3% FGs ) was chosen the National Freshman of the Year by the members of the U.S. Basketball Writers Association. ... Freshman guard Rob Dillingham (15.4 ppg, 121 assists vs. 63 turnovers, 48.2% FGs) had 27 points, four rebounds and seven assists in the loss to Texas A&M. ... Tre Mitchell (10.6 ppg, 7 rpg, 69 assists vs. 36 turnovers) had seven points and nine rebounds in 21 minutes vs. Texas A&M. It was the best the 6-9,. 231-pound super-senior has looked since returning from a shoulder injury on March 2. ... Freshmen 7-footers Zvonimir Ivisic (5.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg) and Aaron Bradshaw (5 ppg, 3.3 rpg) could potentially be March Madness X-factors for UK.

▪ Oakland’s Jack Gohlke (12.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 121 of 327 treys) has made the second-most 3-point shots (121) in NCAA Division I men’s college basketball this season. A 6-3, 215-pound product of Pewaukee, Wisconsin, Gohlke is a graduate transfer from NCAA Division II Hillsdale College. For his play this season, Gohlke was named Horizon League Sixth Man of the Year. ... Former Michigan State and Mississippi State guard Rocket Watts (7.8 ppg, 1.7 rebounds, 46 assists vs. 44 turnovers) scored 18 points in Oakland’s 75-65 Horizon League Tournament quarterfinals win over Purdue Fort Wayne but suffered a leg injury late in that game and has played only three minutes since. ... Tuburu Naivalurua (3.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 51.1% FGs), a 6-6, 218-pound product of Sydney, Australia, leads the Golden Grizzlies in blocked shots with 23.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Intangibles and history

▪ Kentucky is playing in its record 61st NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats are 130-54 all-time in the NCAA tourney. Only North Carolina (131) has more wins in the Dance.

▪ Oakland is appearing in its fourth NCAA tourney as a Division I program. The Golden Grizzlies are 1-3 all-time. Oakland’s NCAA Tournament win came over Alabama A&M in 2005 in the “Opening Round Game,” a precursor to the First Four.

▪ As UK head man, John Calipari, 65, is 32-10 in NCAA tourney contests. In his first five NCAA Tournaments (2010 through 2015) as Kentucky coach, Calipari went 22-4 in the tourney with five Elite Eights, four Final Fours and the 2012 NCAA title. Since 2016, Calipari is 10-6 in the tourney with two Elite Eights.

▪ Oakland coach Greg Kampe, 68, has been coaching the Golden Grizzlies since 1984, when the university was a NCAA Division II school. He is the longest-tenured coach Division I men’s college hoops.

▪ Over the past five NCAA Tournaments, No. 3 seeds have a better record in round-of-64 games than any other seed lines. No. 3 seeds have gone 19-1 in the past five tourneys, compared to 18-2 for No. 1 seeds and 17-3 for No. 2 seeds.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction

Kentucky 89, Oakland 78.

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