Nigel Farage could inflict 'devastation' on Tories at general election, claims new analysis

Joe Gamp
·Contributor, Yahoo News UK
Updated
Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage arrives to cast his vote for the European Parliament elections at a polling station at the Cudham Church of England Primary School in Biggin Hill, Kent. (Photo by Kirsty O'Connor/PA Images via Getty Images)
Nigel Farage's Brexit Party could cause serious problems for the Conservatives after a surge in support (GETTY)

New analysis claims heavyweight Tory politicians could risk losing their seats if support for the Brexit Party continues to surge.

A new study conducted by the University of Kent says the Conservatives would see ‘devastating losses’ of as many as 113 seats if Nigel Farage secured 30 percent of the vote during general election.

It follows Theresa May Mrs May announcing on Friday that should would resign from office, sparking rumours of candidates for a successor, which will be chosen in mid-July.

But politicians such as Boris Johnson could experience a hit if the Brexit Party continues to surge in at the next national vote.

April 1, 2019 - UK Lawmakers Vote On Brexit Options - March 19, 2019 - Brexit Plans Remain in Disarray - January 21, 2019 - Brexit Stalemate Continues - File Photo by: zz/Dennis Van Tine/STAR MAX/IPx 2017 3/23/17 Boris Johnson - Former Mayor of London and current Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs of The United Kingdom - speaks at United Nations Headquarters during a meeting of The UN Security Council. (NYC)
Boris Johnson is a front contender for Tory leadership (AP)

But even if Mr Farage’s party won 15 per cent of the vote, it would still likely be “game over” for the Tories’ chances of forming the next government.

In this incidence they would lose a total of 67 seats.

The model predicts that Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd and former Education Secretary Nicky Morgan would be among those who lose their seats.

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Professor Matthew Goodwin from the University of Kent used constituency-level data from the 2017 general election to model the impact of the Brexit Party on the outcome of a future general election

Professor Goodwin said: ‘Put simply, the stronger Farage becomes the greater the prospect of Prime Mininster Jeremy Corbyn.

‘What these numbers show is that if the Brexit Party get anywhere near what UKIP achieved in 2015 then it is game over for the Conservative Party.

British Prime Minister Theresa May reacts as she turns away after making a speech in the street outside 10 Downing Street in London, England, Friday, May 24, 2019. Theresa May says she'll quit as UK Conservative leader on June 7, sparking contest for Britain's next prime minister. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)
Theresa May made emotionally announced her resignation on Friday afternoon (AP)

‘Even if Nigel Farage and his new party get only 15 per cent of the national vote then this is likely to cost the Tories 67 seats, including high-profile defeats for people like Amber Rudd, George Eustice, David Jones, Nicky Morgan and Zac Goldsmith.’

Mr Farage has already indicated that he would stand Brexit Party candidates at the next general election.

The UK voted in the European Parliament elections on Thursday.

Results are due on Sunday, after votes have taken place in other EU member states.