NHC reports chances have dropped for tropical development of system off Florida

An area of low pressure off the Florida coast is running into problems and development now has a zero percent chance over the next several days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The system first appeared on NHC's tropical outlook map Sunday northeast of the Bahamas and continued to hang around Monday morning with a 10 percent chance for development.

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By Monday afternoon, chances for development dropped to zero percent.

There have been 19 storms that have formed before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season over the last 50 years. The season begins June 1.

“Out of season” tropical cyclones primarily occur in May or December, according to NOAA.

History bears that out. Fourteen of those 19 "out of season" or "offseason" storms over the past 50 years formed in May. Another three were born in April.

Storms can form at any time, as Hurricane Alex proved on Jan. 12, 2016, when it became the third hurricane ever recorded in January in the Atlantic, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.

Florida may not catch a break: AccuWeather issues 2023 hurricane season forecast, predicting 11-15 named storms

2 major hurricanes predicted in 2023: CSU predicting 13 named storms, 2 major hurricanes this season

Even if nothing does develop from the system in the western Atlantic, AccuWeather forecasters said residents in the southeastern U.S. can expect an extended period of stormy weather the last week of May and moving into the Memorial Day weekend.

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. May 22:

What's out there and where is it?

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas have decreased since Sunday.

Environmental conditions have become more hostile and development of this system is not expected while it moves north-northeast at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so.

How likely is it to strengthen?

• Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent.

• Formation chance through seven days: near 0 percent.

Who is likely to be impacted?

It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from any tropical systems.

"Regardless of whether disturbances in the pattern are linked to the tropics or not, impacts along the southern Atlantic coast could be particularly disruptive for outdoor activities in the days prior to and during the extended Memorial Day weekend," Johnson-Levine said.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared since conditions can and do change rapidly.

NHC also watching 2 tropical waves in Atlantic

• Tropical wave 1: The first wave is located in the central Atlantic west-southwest of Cabo Verde. It's moving west at 14 mph.

• Tropical wave 2: The second wave is located off the coast of Africa, southeast of Cabo Verde. It's moving west at 11 mph.

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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Tropical forecast over the next seven days

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

What's next?

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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropics watch: NHC tracking system off Florida, 2 tropical waves