NFL MVP, ROY and awards rankings: At midseason, it's a great two-man MVP race
If we know anything, looking through the past couple decades of MVP voting, it’s that a quarterback or a record-breaking running back is very likely to win. And the winner is almost definitely coming from one of the NFL’s best teams.
So what happens when you have a quarterback having a historic season and a running back chasing a major record, and their teams have one loss between them?
It’s not too early to talk about the MVP race. We’re roughly halfway through the season. There have been some outstanding performances, especially as offensive numbers have exploded, but Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley stand out as the clear leaders.
In many other seasons, they’re both putting up numbers that would win the award. But there’s only one trophy for the two of them to battle over:
MAHOMES: 2,526 yards, 26 touchdowns, 6 INT, 115.3 rating, 7-1 record. 16-game pace: 5,052 yards, 52 TD, 12 INT.
GURLEY: 800 rushing yards, 351 receiving yards, 15 total touchdowns, 8-0 record. 16-game pace: 2,302 yards from scrimmage, 30 touchdowns.
To put Mahomes’ start in perspective, the great Drew Brees has only thrown for more than 40 touchdowns twice, and never more than 46. Peyton Manning’s 55 touchdowns in his amazing 2013 season and Tom Brady’s 50 touchdowns in 2007 are the only 50-touchdown seasons in NFL history.
And to put Gurley’s season in perspective, there have been only 10 2,300-yard seasons in NFL history, and only one 30-touchdown season. That was LaDainian Tomlinson’s ridiculous 31-touchdown season in 2006. Gurley has a shot to break that mark, and do so for a team that might not reach 16-0, but certainly looks like the best team in football.
Gurley is probably at a disadvantage because voters prefer quarterbacks. For a refresher on how the voting has gone the past 24 seasons, dating back to Emmitt Smith’s win in 1993, there have been 26 Associated Press MVP winners (it was split twice). Here is the breakdown:
• 20 quarterbacks
• 3 running backs who set an NFL single-season touchdown record (Marshall Faulk in 2000, Shaun Alexander in 2005 and Tomlinson in 2006)
• 3 running backs who rushed for 2,000 yards (Barry Sanders in 1997, Terrell Davis in 1998 and Adrian Peterson in 2012)
Gurley could check that “single-season touchdown record” box at least, and make it interesting. But let’s assume he probably needs to get to at least 31 touchdowns to win the award, as long as there’s at least one quarterback in the hunt too.
Gurley or Mahomes might fall off their pace by the end of the season of course. But if both of them duplicate what they’ve done over the first half, it might be the best MVP race we’ve seen in a long time. Maybe ever.
Here are the MVP standings for this week:
1. Mahomes — When J.J. Watt got robbed of the MVP in 2014, that was the announcement that it’s a quarterback award. If there’s a quarterback challenging 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns, I have a hard time believing he doesn’t win.
2. Gurley — What’s amazing about Gurley is his efficiency: 4.7 yards per rush and 11.3 yards per catch. It would be crazy if Gurley doing the smart thing and not scoring at the end against the Packers last week costs him the single-season touchdown record, and probably a shot at the MVP too.
3. New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees — It’s amazing that Brees has never won an MVP (don’t blame me, I had a vote in 2009 and voted for Brees, and I still think he got robbed). While Brees is as good as ever and the Saints are great too, it wouldn’t surprise me if Brees’ volume went down now that the Saints can get back to the Mark Ingram-Alvin Kamara tandem running the ball. Brees had just 120 yards last week, and 212 the week before, though both were wins.
4. Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers — Rivers is second behind Brees, among quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts, with a 117.8 passer rating. Remember that he lost tight end Hunter Henry for the season due to a knee injury in the spring. It hasn’t mattered. Rivers has had a remarkable season and the 5-2 Chargers are very quietly one of the best teams in football.
5. Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen — While Thielen has virtually no chance because voters have a very specific criteria and it doesn’t include receivers, we have to acknowledge the season he’s having. Thielen has set an NFL record with 100 yards in eight straight games to start the season. With another 100-yard game this week he breaks a tie with Calvin Johnson for longest streak of 100-yard receiving games in NFL history. He’s on pace for 148 catches and 1,850 yards. That’s worth being on this list.
Defensive Player of the Year: Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald didn’t have a sack through three games. Now he leads the NFL with 10. He probably deserves to be on that MVP list above, even though defensive players really have no fair shot at it.
The ballot:
1. Los Angeles Rams DT Aaron Donald
2. Houston Texans DE J.J. Watt
3. Kansas City Chiefs OLB Dee Ford
Coach of the year: We have spent a lot of time praising Patrick Mahomes, and rightfully so, but what about Andy Reid? Don’t forget Reid lost his offensive coordinator, Matt Nagy, this past offseason. So where should the credit for Mahomes’ amazingly rapid development go?
The ballot:
1. Reid
2. Los Angeles Rams’ Sean McVay
3. New Orleans Saints’ Sean Payton
Offensive rookie of the year: With 13 more rushing yards, Saquon Barkley would be leading all rookies in rushing and receiving yards. This is a pretty easy one.
The ballot:
1. Barkley
2. Denver Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay
3. Detroit Lions running back Kerryon Johnson
Defensive rookie of the year: Indianapolis Colts linebacker Darius Leonard really flashed in the preseason and that has carried over. Admittedly, his struggles in coverage are a reason he leads the NFL with 88 tackles, but he has been very good on a defense without much other talent to bank on. The list of candidates for this award is pretty deep; it’s a good rookie class.
The ballot:
1. Leonard
2. Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James
3. Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward
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Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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