NCAA Wrestling Championships: Predictions for each Penn State wrestler, national champ

Penn State enters its final competition of the wrestling season in an unusual situation.

For the first time since 2013, the Nittany Lions have all 10 of their wrestlers set to compete in this week’s NCAA Championships inside the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo.

The tournament gets started on Thursday with four Penn State grapplers seeded No. 1 and two others at No. 2.

Here’s a look at how we think things will pan out once everything is settled on Saturday evening:

125 Pounds

Nate Cobler: For the first time in seven years, the Nittany Lions have a legitimate title contender at this weight. However, this weight has been quite the revolving door of the top wrestler. Braeden Davis had arguably one of the greatest conference tournament runs taking out four wrestlers with a combined 23 years of college wrestling experience to earn his first Big Ten title. He’s going to have to pull off a similar feat if he wants to get his first NCAA title. Look for him to use the experience he gained to top some Big Ten foes along the way and in the title match against Iowa’s Drake Ayala.

Davis’ predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Davis

Jon Sauber: Penn State might have the best team of all time on its hands, and a large reason for that is the rise of Braeden Davis. This has been a weight class that has been a non-factor for the Nittany Lions for a while now, but Davis has stepped up and is already proving he’s peaking at the right time. After some struggles near the end of the regular season, the Nittany Lion earned the Big Ten title in his first college postseason. I expect him to carry that momentum into Kansas City and come away as a national champion, with a semifinals matchup with Lock Haven’s Anthony Noto proving to be his toughest bout before defeating North Carolina State’s Jakob Camacho in the finals.

Davis’ predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Davis

133 Pounds

Cobler: Aaron Nagao had a roller coaster of a regular season, much like last year. Last year, he turned it on in the postseason to finish as the Big Ten runner up to Roman Bravo-Young, and went on to finish fifth in the NCAAs. This year, he closed out his Big Ten tournament with a pin of Nebraska’s Jacob Van Dee to finish third. Look for Nagao to make the quarterfinals as the No. 10 seed before suffering another loss to Lehigh’s Ryan Crookham. He’ll rebound to secure a podium finish but falls in the consolation quarterfinals to finish up in the seventh place match.

Nagao’s predicted finish: 7th

Predicted champion: Oklahoma State’s Daton Fix

Sauber: Aaron Nagao might have the widest range of any Nittany Lion in the field. He could make the finals if everything breaks right. But he also has a brutal path to get there. Little Rock’s Nasir Bailey in the second round and Lehigh’s Ryan Crookham in the quarterfinals are both difficult matchups for Nagao, and I’ll say he splits them, defeating Bailey before falling to Crookham. A quality run in the consolation bracket will get him back into All-American range and have him finish 5th.

Nagao’s predicted finish: 5th

Predicted champion: Oklahoma State’s Daton Fix

141 Pounds

Cobler: If there is ever a time where Beau Bartlett needs to get to his offense, it’s now. He’s said all year how he wants to get to it faster. He has an interesting road to haul if he wants to make his first NCAA finals as the No. 2 seed. He could get Pittsburgh’s Cole Matthews, who nearly beat Bartlett in last year’s quarterfinals, in the second round. From there, it could be Northern Iowa’s Cael Happel and possibly Iowa’s Real Woods in the semifinals. I look for Bartlett to find his offense early knowing the path he has to face to make the finals, but think he ultimately falls in that match.

Bartlett’s predicted finish: 2nd

Predicted champion: Iowa State’s Anthony Echemendia

Sauber: Penn State has been waiting for Beau Bartlett to initiate more offense all season and I have a hard time believing that’s going to start now. That being said, he could very well win the national title even if he still relies on just his counter attacking to get the job done. The issue is — much as it has been all year — that’s going to lead to more close matches and leave the door open for potential upsets. The good news is he has a favorable draw and should be able to make the semifinals at minimum. He should be able to defeat Iowa’s Real Woods before facing off with Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez in a Big Ten title rematch. I’ve got Mendez taking the victory once again.

Bartlett’s predicted finish: 2nd

Predicted champion: Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez

149 Pounds

Cobler: Penn State couldn’t have asked for more from Tyler Kasak after being called in for duty this year with Shayne Van Ness getting injured and being ruled out for the season. He’s shown he can hang with the best in the weight, losing to Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett by three twice. I look for the freshman to reach the quarterfinals, where he suffers a loss to Arizona State’s Kyle Parco. However, Kasak goes on a run in the consolation bracket to make the consolation finals like he did in the Big Ten Championships.

Kasak’s predicted finish: 4th

Predicted champion: Lovett

Sauber: Tyler Kasak has continued to improve all season, but will still need to pull off an upset to see the semifinals. That being said, a potential quarterfinal against Arizona State’s Kyle Parco is better than one against Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett, who could roll to the title at 149 pounds. While he’ll be an underdog, I’ll give Kasak the upset win and the semifinals appearance where he falls to North Carolina State’s Jackson Arrington, and again loses after making his way to the third place match.

Kasak’s predicted finish: 4th

Predicted champion: Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett

157 Pounds

Cobler: Levi Haines came onto the scene last year topping some pretty talented Big Ten opponents on his way to his first conference title. He followed that up by navigating his way to the NCAA finals, where he suffered a loss to North Carolina’s Austin O’Connor. Haines is the No. 1 seed this year for good reason, and should make a return trip to the finals. However, he’s going to see some familiar foes from last year’s finals run. He’ll face either Michigan’s Will Lewan or Nebraska’s Peyton Robb in the quarterfinals. If it’s Lewan, it could be tricky for Haines. In the semifinals, he could get the dangerous opponent in Virginia Tech’s Bryce Andonian, who is prone to throwing guys to their backs, but Haines topped him last year. The sophomore gets by them all and Arizona State’s Jacori Teemer to earn his first title and rebound from the finals’ loss last year.

Haines’ predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Haines

Sauber: Levi Haines hasn’t faced much competition this year, but that could change over the weekend. Michigan’s Will Lewan could be waiting in the quarterfinals, which will almost assuredly lead to a low-scoring match. Once he gets by Lewan, I’ve got him facing Northern Iowa’s Ryder Downey in the semis, getting the win and taking on Cornell’s Meyer Shapiro in the final. Shapiro will be a quality test for Haines as the Nittany Lion chases his first NCAA title, but one that he should pass.

Haines’ predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Penn State’s Levi Haines

165 Pounds

Cobler: Mitchell Mesenbrink has become quite the hidden gem that Penn State found. His pace is unreal and his constant pressure is what pushed him toward his first Big Ten title two weeks ago. I feel it’s that same stuff that will push him in a run toward a NCAA title. He got a good draw, which being the No. 2 seed is expected, but he doesn’t have to face Iowa State’s David Carr or Missouri’s Keegan O’Toole until the finals. Carr and O’Toole squared off in last year’s finals with O’Toole coming out on top. Fans are hoping O’Toole gets by Carr again to setup an interesting matchup of former high school teammates facing off for a NCAA title. I think Carr gets O’Toole in his last go around to break fans’ hearts.

Mesenbrink’s predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Mesenbrink

Sauber: There are matches that can launch wrestlers into superstardom and it sure feels like Mitchell Mesenbrink’s win over Wisconsin’s Dean Hamiti for the Big Ten title could be that moment for him. Mesenbrink is constantly looking to score, and even when he doesn’t his persistence can eventually wear out even the toughest opponents. This weight class is stacked heading into NCAAs, but Mesenbrink has managed to avoid most of the best at 165 in his side of the bracket. A potential matchup with Missouri’s Keegan O’Toole or Iowa State’s David Carr should wait him in the finals, and I think he’s going to once again prove just how good he is whenever he matches up with either of them. I’ll go with O’Toole carrying the momentum he built when he defeated Carr for the Big 12 title earlier this postseason. Still, I see no reason to pick against Mesenbrink at this point.

Mesenbrink’s predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Mesenbrink

174 Pounds

Cobler: I have one thing to say about this bracket: Wrestlers that stand in Carter Starocci’s way of winning his fourth straight NCAA title better be ready to battle. Starocci made comments last week how if it was his way, he’d take on the entire field in a Mortal Kombat-style approach. One would expect nothing less from him because of his mindset, but he backs up everything he says with great success. Fans are going to see an even more focused Starocci in what could be his last ride, after not being able to compete in the Big Ten Championships. He’ll have a tough second round match should Cal Poly’s Adam Kemp get there. From there, Starocci should face Virginia Tech’s Mehki Lewis in the quarterfinals. He gets past both of them regardless and tops Illinois’ Edmond Ruth, younger brother of Penn State great Ed Ruth, for his history making title.

Starocci’s predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Starocci

Sauber: I’m not sure what the point of seeding Carter Starocci at No. 9 was but I have to imagine he’s not going to be the one hurt by it. Starocci is one of the best pound for pound wrestlers in the country and should win his fourth individual NCAA title this weekend. The real unfortunate part is that No. 1 seed Mekhi Lewis of Virginia Tech will now have to face him in the quarterfinals rather than the finals. Take your pick from the other side of the bracket — I’ll go with Ohio State’s Rocco Welsh — but I’ll take Starocci rolling all the way through Saturday night.

Starocci’s predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Starocci

184 Pounds

Cobler: Bernie Truax knows what it takes for the NCAA Championships. He’s qualified five straight times — four with Cal Poly, and finished fourth the past three years. Cal Poly is no Penn State, so I look for the experience that Truax has gained with the Nittany Lions in his final campaign, key to climbing up podium in Kansas City. He’s going to have a tough road to get there, but of his four losses this year, three of them have come to the No. 2 seed in Minnesota’s Isaiah Salazar, the No. 4 seed in Oregon State’s Trey Munoz and the No. 5 seed in Nebraska’s Lenny Pinto. Truax only has top Salazar to reach the finals, where he’ll look to avenge his NWCA All-Star Classic loss to the No. 1 seed in Northern Iowa’s Parker Keckeisen. Truax’s toughest test leading to a semifinals matchup with Salazar will be Oklahoma State’s Dustin Plott in the quarterfinals.

Truax’s predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Truax

Sauber: This could be a weight class that is open for the taking for Bernie Truax. He’s been excellent since transferring in to Penn State and should once again reach All-American status with relative ease. However, he has been caught before and hasn’t been able to earn wins over the best in the weight class. The good news is that Minnesota’s Isaiah Salazar is the only wrestler he’s lost to that is on his side of the bracket, but that’s still a difficult task. I’ll give him the upset over No. 3 seed Dustin Plott in the quarters before a semifinal loss to Salazar sends him to the consolation bracket and eventually a fourth place finish.

Truax’s predicted finish: 4th

Predicted champion: Northern Iowa’s Parker Keckeisen

197 Pounds

Cobler: History will be made in some regard on Saturday evening, it’s just a matter of where Aaron Brooks stands in it. Will he become the sixth or seventh four-time NCAA champion — saying Starocci accomplishes the feat — or will he become the first or second four-time NCAA champion for Penn State? He’s going to have no problems reaching the semifinals, where everyone is hoping it’ll be former teammate, Lehigh’s Michael Beard, waiting. Fans weren’t able to see the matchup in the dual in December, so it’ll be entertaining if it comes to fruition. I think it does, and Brooks gets past Beard to have the history set up. I look for Brooks to face off with a familiar name to District 6 wrestling fans in former Mifflin County wrestler, Trent Hidlay from North Carolina State.

Brooks’ predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Brooks

Sauber: Aaron Brooks is going to win his fourth national title. I would still tune in to see how it happens, but I have zero doubt that he’s going to look better than he ever has in Kansas City. North Carolina State’s Trent Hidlay will likely give him his toughest test of the season in the finals, but I don’t have any reason to doubt that Brooks will get the job done and join head coach Cael Sanderson as four-time NCAA champions.

Brooks’ predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Brooks

285 Pounds

Cobler: Greg Kerkvliet has looked unbeatable all season. He faced off with Air Force’s Wyatt Hendrickson during the NWCA All-Star Classic in November, and dominated him in an 18-2 technical fall in 4:42 of wrestling. Hendrickson is the No. 3 seed for the NCAAs. Outside of the finals matchup, Kerkvliet’s toughest opponent could be Arizona State’s Cohlton Schultz in the semifinals. I look for Hendrickson to just miss the finals as he suffers another loss to Big 12 foe, Iowa State’s Yonger Bastida. Bastida posted a picture of him as a grim reaper and taking out formidable opponents on the social media platform X. His last opponent is Kerkvliet, but I don’t see Bastida pulling off the upset.

Kerkvliet’s predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Kerkvliet

Sauber: In previous years Greg Kerkvliet has had a chance at a run at NCAAs, but Michigan’s Mason Parris or Minnesota’s Gable Steveson have loomed in the bracket as enormous barriers that would eventually get in his way. Both are now gone and Kerkvliet is the favorite to win his first individual NCAA title. He could be looking at Arizona State’s Cohlton Schultz in the semifinals, which will present a size disadvantage, but I still give Kerkvliet the advantage there and against either Air Force’s Wyatt Hendrickson or Iowa State’s Yonder Bastida in the finals.

Kerkvliet’s predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Kerkvliet

Team Race

Cobler: When there is a dominant team that just looks unbeatable, the saying goes would you bet on that team or the field. More times than not, a betting person takes the field because of all the different options. However, I’m among those who would be fine taking Penn State over the field because the Nittany Lions are just head and shoulders above everyone else. Keep an eye on North Carolina State, Lehigh and Iowa State in the race to finish out the top three.

Penn State’s predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Penn State

Sauber: This is inevitable, it’s just a matter of by how much. Penn State is going to win yet another national team title under head coach Cael Sanderson and will likely do it by a wide margin. My only question is just how wide that margin will be and whether it will establish this as the best team Sanderson has ever had.

Penn State’s predicted finish: 1st

Predicted champion: Penn State

NCAA Championships

When: Session 1 (First Round), Noon Thursday; Session 2 (Second Round, First Round Consolations), 7 p.m. Thursday; Session 3 (Quarterfinals, Second and Third Round Consolations), Noon Friday; Session 4 (Semifinals, Fourth and Fifth Round Consolations) 8 p.m. Friday; Session 5 (Consolation Semifinals, 3rd, 5th, 7th Place Matches), Noon Saturday; Session 6 (Finals), 7 p.m. Saturday

Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Mo.

Radio: Big Foot Legends (103.7 & 104.3 FM)

TV: ESPN, ESPNU, ESPN+ (paid subscription)

Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com

Brackets: TrackWrestling

X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest