NCAA Tournament will boil down to these 8 teams. Here's why Tennessee, Auburn aren't among them

There will be 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament bracket when it’s revealed March 13, The Tennessean has learned. However, in the cold hard reality of men’s college basketball, there are only a handful that can actually win the national title.

How many? Eight. And that might be pushing it.

Here are the eight in alphabetical order:

Arizona

Coach Tommy Lloyd has guided his team to an amazing record (24-2) in his first season. His disgraced predecessor, Sean Miller, left him plenty of talent, some gathered globally, and the former Gonzaga assistant has helped mesh it into a dangerous team. The Wildcats have great balance as they are among the nation’s leaders in points per game (84.8) and margin of victory (18.0), but also field goal percentage defense (37.3) and blocked shots per game (6.0). Their overall size just overwhelms most teams.

Duke

Coach Mike Krzyzewski winning the national championship in his final season would be college basketball’s version of Hallmark movie. Coach K has a player, Paolo Banchero, who will be taken in the top 3 of the NBA Draft and a solid big man in Mark Williams, but this team seemed to take off when freshman A.J. Griffin became an outside-shooting force.

Gonzaga

The Zags just keep crushing opponents, leading the nation in margin of victory (24.0). They are a colossus in the West Coast Conference but, in fact, the league has gotten much better this season, making the Zags’ dominance that much more impressive. There might not be any team that can handle the one-two, big-man punch of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren. Holmgren, super model thin, has developed into a three-level threat on offense and a shot-blocking force as the season has progressed.

Illinois

It’s refreshing that in an era that emphasizes so much play outside the 3-point arc, a big man can show how valuable he can be. That would be Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn, who is an unstoppable force at 7-feet, 285 pounds. Illinois has other dangerous players, including guards like Trent Frazier, Alphonso Plummer and the sometimes-spectacular Andre Curbelo, who has been slowed by concussion issues but is regaining his form.

Kansas

Adidas U is always a contender. There is no obvious future NBA superstar like Joel Embiid or Paul Pierce on this roster, although leading scorer Ochai Agbaji is a future NBA first-round draft pick. He’s a steady, solid, fundamentally sound player. With a fairly deep roster, coach Bill Self gets top-notch performances from different players as needed.

Kentucky

As has been stated, John Calipari’s change in strategy to invest in the transfer portal as opposed to an entire roster of one-and-dones has paid off. Oscar Tshiebwe is a muscular 6-9 center who overpowers players in the post and leads the nation in rebounding. He is complemented by the outside shooting of Kellen Grady and the playmaking of Sahvir Wheeler. The health of freshman guard TyTy Washington is crucial; the Wildcats have struggled at times when he’s been sidelined.

Wisconsin

This is a borderline inclusion, but the Badgers might have the best individual player in the country in Johnny Davis, who came out of nowhere to have an All-American season. He’s capable of carrying the Badgers to victory in close games. The Badgers have good complementary pieces around him.

UCLA

The Bruins surprised everyone by advancing from the First Four to the Final Four last season. They’ve been affected by COVID-19, but it’s basically the same personnel as last season and a repeat cannot be ruled out. Especially if guard Johnny Juzang raises his game to the highest level. Underrated point guard Tyger Campbell, a former CPA standout, can also control the pace of any game and finds the open scorer consistently.

Teams that won't win national title

There are some obvious teams missing. Here are teams you might think could win the national championship but won’t:

Auburn

If you’re a War Eagle fan, you probably get excited when seeing the aggressive play of guards Wendell Green and K.D. Johnson. In trying to win six consecutive games in the tournament, most of which will be against top-notch competition, their undisciplined play will sabotage the team. Case in point: The final possession in Saturday’s loss to Florida; they failed to get off a shot. This team might make the Final Four but it won’t win a championship.

Purdue

The Boilermakers are a magnificent offense machine but are not great defenders. Traditionally, teams that don’t defend well enough don’t win the national championship. I am also bothered by coach Matt Painter’s center platoon of Trevion Williams and Zach Edey. Statistically, he gets great mileage out of the position, but how is his team served well when an All-American-caliber player like Williams only plays 20 minutes per game? It doesn’t make sense.

Michigan State

Just when you think this team will turn into another late-season darling under Tom Izzo, it loses to Northwestern or Penn State. There’s just not enough consistency.

Tennessee

If you watched the Vols dismantle Kentucky, you would think they could beat anybody. If you saw them struggle offensively against Arkansas last Saturday, you’ll understand. At some point, the offense, which does not function smoothly, will be the culprit in elimination.

Baylor

The defending champions have just suffered too many injuries to be able to repeat.

Villanova

A veteran team that’s really well coached, but it does not have the depth of talent of past Jay Wright teams.

Joe Sullivan can be reached at josephsullivan1974@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeSullivan.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NCAA Tournament will boil down to 8 contenders, but not Tennessee Vols