NCAA Tournament betting guide: Upset picks, fun props and futures for March Madness
The first round of the NCAA Tournament is a magical time of year for college basketball fans ... and sports bettors.
Nothing beats 32 must-win games crammed into a two-day window every March with a catchy tune playing at the start of every commercial break on CBS and its sister TV networks.
With that in mind, it is once again time to share some of my favorite bets ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
Last year, I struck gold by picking Connecticut as my national champion and recommending runner-up San Diego State as my favorite long shot. Beginners luck? Or do I have some talent at this?
We’re about to find out.
First-round (seed) upsets
No. 11 New Mexico: The Lobos are a No. 11 seed, but they are deservedly favored against No. 6 Clemson.
No. 10 Drake: I like the Bulldogs to knock off No. 7 seed Washington State. The Cougars faded hard at the end of the season. Plus, this game will be played in Drake’s back yard in Omaha.
No. 12 James Madison: The Dukes won 31(!) games this season and own a road win over Michigan State. They won’t be intimidated by the Badgers.
No. 11 Oregon: Never underestimate Dana Altman in the NCAA Tournament, especially against a South Carolina team that barely ranks inside the top 50 at Ken Pomeroy.
No. 9 Michigan State: The Spartans have major sleeper potential in their region.
No. 10 TCU: The Horned Frogs should be able to get out in transition and crash the glass against Utah State.
No. 10 Nevada: The Wolfpack finished the regular season by winning seven straight games and get the play this game close to home in Salt Lake City.
Surprise teams with Sweet 16 potential
Texas (3 to 1): The Longhorns beating Tennessee in the second round, and sending former coach Rick Barnes home from the NCAA Tournament with another early exit, seems destined to happen.
Florida Atlantic (8 to 1): It was a disappointing season for the Owls, but they might have just been bored after reaching the Final Four last March. When they played up they usually played great, as evidenced by a win over Arizona on a neutral floor. The defending champion has found it quite difficult to go very far in recent tournaments. It won’t come as a shock if FAU flips the switch and pulls off a big upset against UConn in the second round.
Texas Tech (2 to 1): The Red Raiders got a great draw in the first round against a North Carolina State team that is primed for a letdown. After that is either Kentucky, which has underachieved in March lately under John Calipari, or Oakland.
What to make of the Jayhawks?
Kansas fans were holding out hope that the Jayhawks could get healthy and stay healthy in the NCAA Tournament. But that is no longer possible now that Bill Self has announced that Kevin McCullar is out for the remainder of the season.
That significantly lowers the ceiling for this team.
But I still think the Jayhawks will get by Samford in the opening round with Hunter Dickinson back in the lineup. The better time to fade them is in the second round, especially if they play Gonzaga. The Bulldogs ended the season playing great basketball, and they get to play these games close to home in Salt Lake City.
My advice: bet KU to fall short of the Sweet 16. You can still find that close to even money in some places.
Expect chalk in at least two regions
Connecticut, Houston and Purdue have all been dominant this season. So much so that they have separated themselves from the rest of college basketball as the clear top three teams. You could say it’s them and then everyone else.
So why not back them to reach the Final Four?
Bet the over (1.5) on No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four at plus money.
Conference over/under bets
Big 12: Over 12.5 wins. I project closer to 15.
SEC: Under 11.5 wins. I like Auburn, but the Tigers are in a tough region and I’m happy to fade Tennessee and Kentucky.
Big East: Over 7.5 wins. The conference only got three teams in field, but all three of them have Final Four potential.
Pac 12: Over 4.5 wins. This number should be easy to hit if even one team helps out Arizona.
Big Ten: Under 8.5 wins. Purdue will have to carry the flag for this to go over.
ACC: Under 5.5 wins. Virginia, which just embarrassed itself in the First Four, finished third in the ACC. Third! That’s all I need to know.
The next Connecticut?
Connecticut was technically a surprise national champion last season when it marched through the bracket as a No. 4 seed.
But seeds can be deceiving. The Huskies entered the NCAA Tournament ranked in the top five by Ken Pomeroy.
One team matches that profile almost perfectly this season — Auburn. The Tigers are considered a top five team by most metrics and also rank in the top 10 nationally at both offense and defense.
The biggest knock against Auburn is its region. Getting past UConn, Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Illinois and Iowa State won’t be easy.
Still, you can find Auburn as high as 22-to-1 to win the national championship. It profiles the same as Arizona or Tennessee, but its odds are nearly twice as good. I see great value in that bet.
Three long shots to consider
BYU (70 to 1): The Cougars shouldn’t have any trouble with Duquesne in the first round. After that they are likely to play Illinois (no defense), and Iowa State (almost swept the Cyclones in the regular season). Beating Auburn or Connecticut after that could be much harder. But if BYU can get hot from 3-point range it can beat anyone.
Michigan State (100-to-1): The Spartans always save their best for March under Tom Izzo. This is largely the same roster that reached the Sweet 16 last season. And they are in the right region to make a run.
Colorado (200-to-1): The Buffaloes ended the season hot, and at least one team almost always makes noise in the NCAA Tournament after escaping the First Four. It wouldn’t come as a big surprise if Colorado can beat Florida and then Marquette to advance to the Sweet 16, and possibly beyond.
My national champion
Give me Houston to cut down the nets.
The Cougars have been the best team in college basketball all season and their defense makes them seem upset proof in the early rounds. Losing to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament might help the Cougars in the long run. They will enter March Madness with something to prove.
