NHC expects Tropical Storm Vince to form in Caribbean Friday; storm dumps rain on Florida

An area of low pressure, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two, over the west-central Caribbean Sea is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

At 4 p.m. Thursday, the system was moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph.

A northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight, with an increase in forward speed into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica late Friday, southeastern Cuba early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday, the NHC reported.

"As the system passes over very warm waters of the western Caribbean into Friday night, there is a chance it evolves into a tropical depression or storm," AccuWeather tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.

According to AccuWeather, the system is not expected to affect Florida or the rest of the U.S.

The next name on the Atlantic storm list is Vince, followed by Whitney, which would run out the 2023 names list. After Whitney, an approved list of alternate names would come into play.

Will it rain in Florida for Thanksgiving National Weather Service, AccuWeather forecasts

A storm blowing over from the Gulf that's been dumping rain across Florida, combined with another low-pressure area developing off the southern Florida coast, will bring heavy rains and flash flooding to South Florida this morning and the east coast of the state this afternoon into the evening before pushing offshore Friday, the National Weather Service said. A flood watch remains in effect for southeastern Florida. Gusty winds up to 40 mph will also be possible along the eastern peninsula today, forecasters said.

According to AccuWeather, the region between Miami and Fort Lauderdale saw 2-6 inches of rain Tuesday evening and the Miami International Airport saw an additional 7.53 inches Wednesday. About 8-12 more inches of rain are expected in the area with higher local amounts possibly up to 16 inches. The rain is likely to be intense, with several inches of rain falling within a short period of time, overwhelming local storm drain infrastructure and drainage.

There is a high risk of dangerous rip currents along the Atlantic coast through Friday morning and coastal flooding possible at high tides, with advisories in effect until Friday on the east coast. A high surf advisory is in effect from northeast Florida south to Southern Brevard until Friday and in South Florida until Thursday evening with large breaking waves of 4 to 9 feet in the surf zone.

"As the storm moves from west to east across the Florida Peninsula, it will begin to tap tropical moisture from the Caribbean," AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologist Joe Bauer said.

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Excessive rainfall forecast

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The next name on the tropical storm list is "Vince."

What's out there and how likely are they to strengthen?

Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two: The system over the west-central Caribbean is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. It is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. A northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight, with an increase in forward speed into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica late Friday, southeastern Cuba early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 70 percent.

  • Formation chance through seven days: high, 70 percent.

Offshore Southeast Coast of United States: A non-tropical area of low pressure has formed near southern Florida along a frontal boundary. This system is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend.

Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to continue to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next day or so.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.

  • Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent.

Who is likely to be impacted?

Heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding is expected in south Florida and up the eastern coast coast of the state, bringing high surf and dangerous rip currents. Inland flooding of rivers is possible.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Tropical forecast over the next seven days

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

Noaa

Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051

What's next?

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This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Vince forecast to form soon