National Hurricane Center predicts 8-13 hurricanes during 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

The National Hurricane Center released its official prediction for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the news isn't good.

So far, every forecast has predicted an extremely active season, and National Hurricane Center forecasters agreed.

Several factors contribute to the predictions for a busy season, including record warm water temperatures and the presence of La Niña. Both favor the development of tropical cyclones.

➤ Interactive map: Track active storms

“Get prepared, stay prepared. That is the best way to reduce risk,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad.

"Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today," said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks.

Here's what the National Hurricane Center is predicting and how those predictions compare to AccuWeather, Colorado State University and Florida's WeatherTiger.

National Hurricane Center predicts 8-13 hurricanes in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

The National Hurricane Center is predicting there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near normal season and a 5% chance for a below normal season.

NHC forecasters predict:

• 17-25 named storms

• 8-13 hurricanes

• 4-7 major hurricanes

A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Chances high a hurricane may hit Florida in 2024

Colorado State University is predicting Florida has a 96% forecast probability of being impacted by a named storm and a 75% chance of being impacted by a hurricane.

Chances are 44% Florida will be impacted by a major hurricane.

Between 1880 and 2020, Florida has been impacted by 274 named storms, 115 hurricanes and 48 major hurricanes, CSU reported, using NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Top 6 Florida counties that could be most at risk in 2024

Forecast probability of an impact from a named storm in Florida counties:

• Monroe: 71%

• Miami-Dade: 62%

• Brevard: 61%

• Broward: 61%

• Collier: 61%

• Palm Beach: 61%

AccuWeather forecasters included a cautionary note for residents in several states.

In its 2024 hurricane season prediction, AccuWeather said the Florida Panhandle, South Florida, Texas and the Carolinas all face heightened risk this season.

AccuWeather predicting 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could break record

AccuWeather is predicting this season has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in one season.

• 20-25 named storms

• 8-12 hurricanes

• 4-7 major hurricanes

• 4-6 direct U.S. impacts

Colorado State University forecasters predicting 23 named storms

CSU's 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for:

• 23 named storms

• 11 hurricanes

• 5 major hurricanes

Florida's WeatherTiger forecasts 22-26 named storms in 2024 hurricane season

Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, predicted the 2024 season is "nearly certain to be more active than average and has a 25% chance of being the busiest on record."

• 22-26 tropical storms

• 10-13 hurricanes

• 5-8 major hurricanes

Truchelut works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.

Start getting ready: 2024 will be a busy hurricane season in Florida. Here's what you should start doing now

Why is the 2024 hurricane season expected to be so busy?

Factors contributing to the above-normal predictions for the 2024 hurricane season include:

• Near-record warm temperatures in the Atlantic.

• Development of La Niña.

• Reduced Atlantic trade winds.

• Less wind shear.

All of those conditions favor the development of tropical cyclones.

This season also has the potential for above-normal west African monsoons, which produced easterly waves that "seed  some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms," the National Hurricane Center said.

How many tropical cyclones does an average hurricane season have?

Based on a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, the typical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, and a storm is classified as a Category 3 when maximum sustained winds are at least 111 mph, according to NOAA.

The record for the number of named storms in a season is 30, which was set in 2020.

The first named storm typically forms in mid-to-late June, the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. However, storms can — and have — formed before and after those dates.

Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May.

The May 23 tropical outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center showed a disturbance in the southwestern Atlantic. As of 8 a.m., it had a low chance for development.

There have been two occasions over the last 20 years a tropical cyclone has formed in the Atlantic basin in January, including Hurricane Alex in 2016.

• Jan. 16-17, 2023: Unnamed subtropical storm.

• May 22-23, 2021: Tropical Storm Ana.

• May 16-19, 2020: Tropical Storm Arthur.

• May 27-28, 2020: Tropical Storm Bertha.

• May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea.

• May 25-31, 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto.

• April 19-21, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene.

• Jan. 12-15, 2016: Hurricane Alex

• May 27-June 4, 2016: Tropical Storm Bonnie

• May 8-11, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana.

• May 19-22, 2012: Tropical Storm Alberto.

• May 26-30, 2012: Tropical Storm Beryl.

• May 31-June 1, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur.

• May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea.

• April 20-24, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana.

National Hurricane Center making changes for 2024 hurricane season

The National Hurricane Center announced earlier this year it would implement several changes for the 2024 hurricane season to improve communication. Those improvements include:

• Beginning on or around Aug. 15, an experimental version of the cone of uncertainty graphic will include storm watches and warnings for inland counties. Previous graphics showed watches and warnings only for coastal counties.

• Public advisories, tropical cyclone discussions, tropical cyclone updates and key messages will also be provided in Spanish.

• U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings will be issued with regular and intermediate public advisories instead of only with regular advisories. Regular advisories are issued every six hours, with intermediate advisories issued three hours after every regular advisory.

New tools should help hurricane forecasts, including showing potential for rapid intensification

Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will go into operation this season, the National Hurricane Center said:

• The Modular Ocean Model or MOM6 will "improve the representation of the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity."

• The SDCON will predict the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.

Additional tools include NOAA’s new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping, which will "provide information to emergency and water managers to prepare and respond to potential flooding and help local officials better prepare to protect people and infrastructure."

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, in partnership with the NHC, also will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season.

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane season 2024: NOAA forecast predicts 25 storms. Florida impact