National Hurricane Center issues 1st daily tropical outlook of 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
The National Hurricane Center issued its first daily tropical outlook today, May 15.
The good news is that tropical cyclone activity is not expected over the next seven days.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, but NHC forecasters begins issuing daily tropical outlooks on May 15.
"This product describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days," the National Hurricane Center said.
Early forecasts call for an extremely active hurricane season, with AccuWeather forecasters warning 2024 could hit a record-breaking 30 named storms.
The reason for the predictions of an active season is two-fold: Extremely warm water temperatures and La Niña. Warm water helps fuel the tropical cyclones, and La Niña doesn't have the wind shear of El Niño. Wind shear tears apart developing storms.
Today's tropical outlook isn't the first of the 2024 season. On April 24, a short-lived tropical disturbance popped up about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It had a very low chance for development and disappeared shortly after it appeared.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. May 15:
What is out there?
There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin at this time and nothing is expected over the next seven days.
The Atlantic basin covers the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
NHC forecasters noted a cold front over the northwest Gulf of Mexico is bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms along and east of the front to the Florida coast.
The front is expected to lift as a warm front later today and linger across the northern Gulf over the next few days. This will shift the focus of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the northern Gulf Thursday and Friday.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Storms associated with the cold front are moving across Florida from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic. Nineteen counties were placed under a tornado watch until 11 a.m.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. However, storms can — and have — formed before and after those dates.
Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May.
There have been two occasions over the last 20 years a tropical cyclone has formed in the Atlantic basin in January, including Hurricane Alex in 2016.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
AccuWeather predicting 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could break record
AccuWeather is predicting this season has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in one season.
20-25 named storms
8-12 hurricanes
4-7 major hurricanes
4-6 direct U.S. impacts
Colorado State University forecasters predicting 23 named storms
CSU's 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for:
23 named storms
11 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
Florida's WeatherTiger forecasts 20-24 storms in 2024 hurricane season
Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, predicted the 2024 season has a 50-50 shot of landing in the ranges of:
20-24 tropical storms
9-12 hurricanes
4-7 major hurricanes
Truchelut works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.
Start getting ready: 2024 will be a busy hurricane season in Florida. Here's what you should start doing now
How many tropical cyclones does an average hurricane season have?
Based on a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, the typical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, and a storm is classified as a Category 3 when maximum sustained winds are at least 111 mph, according to NOAA.
The first named storm typically forms in mid-to-late June, the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September.Related contentlist (ID: 72864059007)
How often do tropical cyclones happen before June 1?
There have been two occasions over the last 20 years a tropical cyclone has formed in the Atlantic basin in January, including Hurricane Alex in 2016.
Jan. 16-17, 2023: Unnamed subtropical storm.
May 22-23, 2021: Tropical Storm Ana.
May 16-19, 2020: Tropical Storm Arthur.
May 27-28, 2020: Tropical Storm Bertha.
May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
May 25-31, 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto.
April 19-21, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene.
Jan. 12-15, 2016: Hurricane Alex
May 27-June 4, 2016: Tropical Storm Bonnie
May 8-11, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana.
May 19-22, 2012: Tropical Storm Alberto.
May 26-30, 2012: Tropical Storm Beryl.
May 31-June 1, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur.
May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
April 20-24, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana.
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC issues first daily tropical outlook of 2024 season. What to know
