NASCAR Best Bets: Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson among Richmond favorites

Anthony Alfredo, an Xfinity Series regular, gets a Cup Series ride this week at Richmond, borrowing the keys of the No. 78 Chevy from team owner/driver BJ McLeod.

“What on Earth does that matter?”

Glad you asked.

Alfredo is bringing along one of his occasional Xfinity Series team sponsors.

Dude Wipes.

Thank you, sir, may I have another?

NASCAR POLL Should Daniel Suarez be penalized for post-race actions at COTA?

SMOKEY YUNICK Tilting at Smokey windmill, credit for monument, and NCAA bracket woes | HEY, WILLIE!

You may recall a couple weeks back when I basically became a one-man NASCAR hedge fund, spreading bets around for Phoenix in a way that, more or less, guaranteed I’d cash a winning ticket.

I damn near lost anyway.

But, as documented, I needed the stink of a winner, no matter how cheaply it came. And cheap it was, barely enough to cover that upfront $100 we (um, hypothetically) toss across the (also hypothetical) teller window each week.

Like Charlie’s friend Pig-Pen, I gamely carried that stench with me into COTA last week, where one of my go-to road-racing aces was going to fatten up the wallet. 

By afternoon’s end, AJ Allmendinger, who’d finished third in the first stage, crashed out eight laps from the end, which ended up not being the end, due to the steady drumbeat of “TROUBLE IN TURN 1!”

Christopher Bell was running fifth with a handful of laps remaining when he looped it off the course, all alone. The last hope was Austin Cindric, a quality road-racer who trudged home sixth, as if that was gonna help the cause.

It was that other road ranger, Tyler Reddick, the one I gambled against, who won in a manner patented by Secretariat.

Me? Well, there’s an old expression for it, generally reserved for locker rooms, loading docks, and off-the-main-drag sailor hangouts.

Thankfully, Anthony Alfredo has a hauler full of Dude Wipes to help the cause.

As Ulysses once told Abe, it’s on to Richmond and the spoils of victory!

William Byron +450, Kevin Harvick +550, Kyle Larson +650, Christopher Bell +750, Denny Hamlin +900, Martin Truex +1,000

Let’s just get this out there: You can make a case for 10 or 12 different drivers to either be the favorite or among the very top favorites this week. Above are six of them. OK, except Truex, who came off a bad (for him) 2022 and promptly slapped together one top-10 (a seventh at Vegas) through six races this year.

Kyle Busch +1,200, Joey Logano +1,600, Ryan Blaney +1,600, Ross The Boss Chastain +1,800, Tyler Reddick +1,800, Alex Bowman +1,800

You know, you could take this group and switch them with the group above, and you wouldn’t get much of an argument.

Brad Keselowski +2,500, Chris Buescher +3,000, Josh Berry +4,000, Daniel Suarez +4,000, Bubba Wallace +5,000, Aric (With an A) Almirola +5,000, The Other Chase, Briscoe +5,000

Assuming Daniel Suarez is driving angry, you want to consider the No. 99 Chevy. But then you take a look at his Richmond record. No thanks.

Ty Gibbs +8,000, Austin Dillon +8,000, Erik (With a K) Jones +10,000, Austin Cindric +10,000, AJ Allmendinger +10,000, The Other Ryan, Preece +15,000

Heading into the season, never thought we’d see Erik (With a K) so deep on the board. He has one finish better than 19th this year, while teammate Two-Wide Noah Gragson has one finish better than 20th. Speaking of Noah, look how far out to sea the flood has washed him ….

Noah Gragson +20,000, Chandler Smith +20,000, Ricky Stenhouse +20,000, Corey LaJoie +20,000, Justin Haley +20,000, Ty Dillon +20,000, Cody Ware +20,000, Harrison Burton +20,000, Todd Gilliland +20,000, Michael MdDowell +20,000, Jimmy Jack Yeley +20,000, Anthony Alfredo +20,000

… Yep, that’s Noah, joining the backmarkers in the Longshot Lounge, also known this week as the Fire Marshal’s Worst Nightmare. Good grief, whatever happened to limits on room capacity. No entertainment in the lounge this week; the three-piece combo included a stand-up bass, and there’s just no room here.

Last week

As explained earlier, it was hoped that Tyler Reddick’s road-course prowess would somehow not translate to his new Toyota. It was also hoped that AJ and Christopher wouldn’t crash out before taking their shots, and that Cindric would be a wee bit more competitive.

That’s a long way to go to explain the loss of an entire C-note.

This week

I’ve gotta have Joey Logano, and not just because he led 222 laps at Richmond last fall. But that doesn’t hurt the vibe, and $40 at +1,600 would bring a payoff of  $640.

So, I’m putting $40 of my $100 on Joey, and … and … where’s my hat?

I have about a dozen others who get my interest, and though my pride went behind the wall with that box of Dude Wipes, I can’t make myself split the remaining $60 12 ways. But I can damn sure split it six ways, a sawbuck apiece.

So into the officially licensed NAPA cap go 12 names, and let’s see which six come out to play …

Kevin Harvick, let’s go!

Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski … go get ’em!

Next up is Ty Gibbs, and I know what you’re thinking. But listen, he’s gonna regain his footing eventually. It’s a given.

I think.

Anyway, I included him among my dozen guesses and hunches because he’s been pushed all the way to +8,000, which would mean an $800 payday with just a $10 wager. Also, yes, he thoroughly dominated last spring’s Xfinity race at Richmond. That’s gotta mean a smidge, right?

So there you go.

What? Oh, yeah, almost forgot the sixth $10 pick.

I cheated. I absolutely had to have Ross the Boss, so I picked and picked until the name Chastain appeared.

Let’s review: :$40 on Logano, $10 each on Harvick, Larson, Busch, Keselowski, Gibbs and the Boss.

Meanwhile, I’m afraid of Kyle Busch. Pass the Dude Wipes, please.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds: Kevin Harvick a Richmond favorite; why is Martin Truex?