Nagy: Hungary – The West’s ally or China-Russian “Trojan Horse?”
Historically, Hungary has played the role of guardian of Europe’s east-facing “back door” – stopping or slowing invading armies bent on overrunning Western Europe. They have paid the price over and over in massive deaths, destruction, and being subjugated to Mongols, Turks, and Russians. But resilience is a national treasure, and the small country punches way above its weight in a variety of achievements – from sports to science. I visit Hungary frequently and have for decades to see the family I left behind. Moving parallel to events in our changing world, I have seen the nation evolve from a drab and depressing Soviet dictatorship to a democratic NATO and European Union member strongly supportive of America. More recently, Hungary’s role as a member of the democratic West has been questioned, as its current government is accused of turning away from “Western” values and moving closer to America’s global adversaries.
My just-concluded visit to Hungary coincided with Chinese President Xi’s controversial (in the West) trip to Budapest, which included only two other stops: France and Serbia. During the visit the Chinese and Hungarians signed a wide range of new joint projects including cooperating on nuclear energy, building new rail lines, and exporting Hungarian cherries to China. These deals add to the billions of dollars China has already invested in Hungary in ventures such as massive EV battery factories and a soon-to-be-built Chinese EV manufacturing plant. Xi’s visit added to growing criticism from the West and the Hungarian political opposition that Hungary is serving as a “Trojan Horse” for China to flood the European Union with Chinese products, and in the process harm Hungary’s environment, deplete its water, and indebt the country. US Ambassador David Pressman even said publicly “The way in which the Hungarian government has cultivated its relationship with China shows that Hungary cares little for its own security or that of its allies.” Strong and undiplomatic language from an ambassador toward the host nation!
Hungary’s growing commercial ties to China also add to deep Western concerns over Hungary’s perceived pro-Russian tilt as symbolized by warm personal ties between Prime Minister Orban and Putin. Most problematic for Western Russia hawks is Hungary’s call for a quick end to the Ukraine conflict through an immediate cease fire and negotiations forced on Ukraine by stopping Western military support. To capitalize on its Ukraine position politically, in upcoming local elections Orban’s governing FIDESZ party is even labeling itself the “Peace Party” and the opposition as “War Parties.”
Hungary’s final sin, in the eyes of the Biden Administration and most European Union governments is its vocal and aggressive promotion of traditional values, as opposed to Western progressive “wokeism.” Hungary actively supports patriotism, the nuclear family, Abrahamic faiths, only male-female marriage, and strict immigration controls to preserve the culture and ethnicity of the Hungarian nation. Orban even calls his policies “illiberal” – not a great word choice in my view – given its very “in your face” effect. On the Gaza war, Hungary is probably Israel’s strongest supporter in Europe.
Of course, such weighty issues are always complicated. I had an opportunity for very frank discussions with several Hungarian officials who fiercely defended their government’s reasons for these policies. The Orban government believes strongly that the Ukraine war is a tremendous waste and harmful to both Ukraine and Russia in terms of deaths, displacements, and destruction of infrastructure and national economies. They believe the war has to be eventually solved through negotiation, so why not now? On China, the Hungarians are unapologetic. Their point: the US does Two Billion Dollars worth of trade with China every day, including selling China much higher tech components than Hungary will ever furnish, so why OK for America but not Hungary? In addition, the Hungarians say that looking at today’s world, it’s no longer a unipolar US-led global order, and in the current multi-polar environment China is a major “pole” – so small countries like Hungary need to cultivate those ties. As for Orban’s “illiberal” social and cultural policies, the officials say that national sovereignty means countries can decide those issues for themselves. So while DEI and mass immigration may be what the Biden administration desires for America, Hungarians by large majorities support traditional social policies and strong immigration controls to safeguard “Hungarianess.”
While the Hungarian Government’s arguments follow a certain logic, there is also problematic context. On Ukraine – wasn’t the “Peace Party” in England in the run-up to World War 2 Neville Chamberlain’s, and in the US the isolationists? How did that work out? And can an ascendant Putin be trusted with adhering to any peace deal? Regarding China, is Hungary getting the best deal by taking on significant Chinese debt, and will it get quality for the cost or a substandard product with imported Chinese workers and environmental degradation. I’ve seen many African countries fall into the same trap.
But immaterial of our administration’s differences with Hungary’s policies, we are not advancing our interests with public scolding or moving the Hungarian Government from the “friend” to “adversary” column. Given the chill in our current diplomatic relations I suspect our Budapest Ambassador’s level of contacts with the Hungarian Government have become very limited – maybe the Foreign Ministry chauffeur - and communicating by yelling at each other through a megaphone is never helpful. Such hostility will just drive Hungary into closer and closer relations with our adversaries. And for the Orban government, betting on a second Trump administration to improve its American ties is certainly a risky strategy. Instead of loud bickering, this is the time for high-level, quiet engagement to discuss our long-term mutual interests.
This also means that if we are unhappy with a deal Hungary is making with China or Russia, then we should offer alternatives instead of just criticism. Historically the Hungarian people have been among America’s strongest admirers, and its government – since the end of Communism – has been one of our strongest allies. We should work to preserve that foundation instead of abandoning it because of recent differences.
Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat. Follow him on Twitter @TiborPNagyJr.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Nagy: Hungary – The West’s ally or China-Russian “Trojan Horse?”
