N.L. expecting 10% increase to undergraduate international student permits under new cap

There are projections of a modest increase in the number of international student permits granted in Newfoundland and Labrador this year for undergrads after the imposition of a federal cap. (Paul Daly/The Canadian Press)

The final numbers are in, and Newfoundland and Labrador is in line to see a slight increase in international student permits approved this year for undergraduates.

But a limit imposed by the federal government means that number will be much lower than if it had been calculated on a strictly per-capita basis — which appeared to be the early indication from Ottawa.

"We're gaining just a little less than a couple of hundred over last year," provincial Immigration Minister Gerry Byrne told CBC News.

"But by and large, for practical purposes, we're pretty well treading water. We're staying still."

Byrne said he is disappointed with how the number was ultimately calculated.

"Standing still does not necessarily advance the public objective, the national public objective, when you have a jurisdiction like our province which is acting responsibly, which will continue to act responsibly," he said.

Newfoundland and Labrador Immigration Minister Gerry Byrne, pictured in a file photo, said he is disappointed at how Ottawa ultimately decided to implement a cap on international student permits. (Darrell Roberts/CBC)

In January, Ottawa imposed the cap on new international student permit applications, citing pressures on housing and health care and the need to protect students from "bad actors."

The initial indications out of Ottawa were that the numbers would be divvied up between the provinces and "weighted by population."

Byrne said in February that could actually result in a big boost for Newfoundland and Labrador.

And numbers recently released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) back that up.

Distribution by population share would have seen projected study permit approvals actually jump by 147 per cent in this province, in categories subject to the new cap.

But IRCC decided to limit any potential increases.

"For provinces that would receive more international students in 2024 than in 2023 based on population share, we adjusted their allocation to limit growth to 10 per cent compared to 2023," federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said in a statement issued Friday.

The net result for Newfoundland and Labrador?

Last year, in categories subject to the cap — undergrad post-secondary students — there were 1,290 study permits approved.

In 2024, the projected number of approvals will rise to 1,419.

That's a 10 per cent jump.

Students from Kindergarten through Grade 12 and master's and doctoral students aren't counted in the cap.

There were about 850 school-aged children and just under 2,000 students in post-graduate programs who were approved last year.

Federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller is pictured in the House of Commons in February. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

In January, Miller announced a planned 35 per cent decrease in the number approved study permits in 2024 compared to 2023.

The process of limiting actual approved permits is complicated — what Byrne described as "a cap to the sub cap to the cap."

By law, Ottawa can't limit the number of approvals, but only the number of applications.

Federal officials factored in historic approval rates when deciding how to reduce the number of applications this year, in an effort to arrive at the desired number of permits actually being handed out.

Some provinces, like Newfoundland and Labrador, had lower approval rates in the past. To address concerns about the impact of that, the feds juggled their allowed number of applications upward, in an effort to get to the same goal.

It will now be up to the provincial Department of Education to determine how to divide the number of applications among post-secondary institutions, such as MUN and CNA.

In an emailed statement to CBC News, the department said talks with "designated learning institutions" are underway.

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