N.B. Liberal Leader Holt keeps distance from Trudeau as election nears

Politically, it would seem to be a slam-dunk question for an opposition leader trying to use the housing issue against Premier Blaine Higgs.

If Susan Holt and her Liberals win the Oct. 21 election and are sworn into power in early November, would she sign a housing funding deal with Ottawa before a federal deadline at the end of the year?

Speaking to reporters earlier this month, Holt welcomed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's announcement of a $6-billion Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund.

But — despite slamming Higgs for inaction — she wouldn't commit.

The day after Justin Trudeau was re-elected in 2019, Premier Higgs reluctantly accepted that New Brunswick would have to comply with his federal carbon-tax policy. Now Trudeau seems destined for defeat and Higgs is pushing for repeal of the tax, while linking Holt to the levy. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press)

"That's a great hypothetical question. I'd have to understand what are the details of the deal," she said, promising only that the housing issue is "something we'd look to address really quickly" if they won the election.

Contrast that with Green MLA Megan Mitton's response.

"We would go to the table and figure out a way to get that funding in the province and get things built."

It's the latest example of Holt keeping her distance from a prime minister whose popularity has plummeted among Canadians and who generates vehemently negative reactions from some voters.

Last fall, Public Safety Minister Kris Austin denounced what he called the prime minister’s 'leftist agendas,' a description Holt didn’t disagree with when asked if Trudeau was too far to the left. (Jacques Poitras/CBC News)

Last fall, Public Safety Minister Kris Austin denounced what he called the prime minister's "leftist agendas" — a description Holt didn't disagree with when asked if Trudeau was too far to the left.

"I think at times, yeah," she said.

"It looks like, on the continuum, they're more left than us because we're more centrist here in New Brunswick."

As the PCs have ramped up attacks on Holt as a Trudeau ally, Holt has insisted the New Brunswick Liberal Party is a separate entity from the federal party the prime minister leads.

While in Ottawa last year for a conference Trudeau attended, she was not photographed with him and said later she had not met with him.

This isn't the first time the PCs have adopted the linkage strategy.

In 2016, then-premier Brian Gallant broke ranks with other premiers to sign a bilateral health care deal with the still-popular Trudeau, upending provincial attempts to hold out for a more flexible agreement. (CBC)

In the 2015 federal election, federal and provincial Tories declared that "a vote for Justin Trudeau is the same as a vote for Brian Gallant," hoping New Brunswickers shared their disdain for the young new Liberal premier and would take it out on the federal leader.

It didn't work. Trudeau won every federal seat in the province.

Gallant embraced the connection. In 2016 he broke ranks with other premiers to sign a bilateral health-care deal with the still-popular Trudeau, upending provincial attempts to hold out for a more flexible agreement.

"We actually see it as a strength to have the same sort of agenda and have many of the same priorities as the Trudeau government," Gallant said at the time — a statement it's hard to imagine Holt making now.

Political scientist Alex Marland says federal and provincial parties of the same stripe routinely "cherry pick" when to stay close and when to keep their distance from each other.

Political scientist Alex Marland says federal and provincial parties of the same stripe routinely 'cherry pick' when to stay close and when to keep their distance from each other. (Acadia University)

"When Justin Trudeau and the Liberals were on the way up … all sorts of provincial Liberals would be happy to show their ties," said Marland, the Jarislowsky chair in trust and political leadership at Acadia University.

"But when the Liberals are on the way down at the federal level, now all of a sudden they're separate entities. … This is all very selective and calculating."

The dynamic can work the other way, too.

The day after Trudeau was re-elected in 2019 — winning six of 10 New Brunswick seats — Higgs reluctantly accepted that New Brunswick would have to comply with his federal carbon-tax policy.

Now Trudeau seems destined for defeat and Higgs is pushing for repeal of the tax, while linking Holt to the increasingly unpopular levy.

Marland says tying provincial leaders to federal policies is disingenuous and not good for democracy, because it adds to existing confusion about which issues are federal, provincial or municipal responsibilities.

It's also possible the PC strategy on Trudeau is a double-edged sword.

Polling expert Eric Grenier says polling numbers could be misleading — like when the Liberals won more votes, but fewer seats, than the PCs in the 2018 provincial election. (CBC)

Recent polling by the Angus Reid Institute suggests Trudeau is actually more popular than Premier Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick.

Trudeau had a 34 per cent approval rating in the province, far behind federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre — but ahead of Higgs, whose approval was at 31 per cent.

In a head-to-head race, Trudeau might win.

But no such race will happen, and polling expert Eric Grenier of The Writ podcast warns the provincewide numbers could be misleading — like when the Liberals won more votes, but fewer seats, than the PCs in the 2018 provincial election.

"Blaine Higgs probably has higher approval ratings in southern New Brunswick, where the PCS have more seats, and Justin Trudeau probably has higher approval ratings in northern New Brunswick, where the Liberals already hold seats," he says.

"If you were looking at these numbers as voting intention numbers, the Liberals being three points ahead of the PCs would probably not be enough for them win."

The PC strategy to tag Holt with Trudeau may be effective among undecided voters in a handful of southern ridings where the next election could be decided, Grenier said.

Linking Holt to Trudeau, he says, "probably makes some sense in those battlegrounds."

Still, the Tories have recently pivoted to negative attacks on Holt based on provincial issues — such as comments she made a decade ago about school closures — rather than invoking the prime minister.

But unless Trudeau manages an astounding turnaround in his popularity between now and October, it's unlikely his name will vanish completely from the PC campaign vocabulary.