Musgrave-Canterbury race in Vanderburgh could be a nailbiter

EVANSVILLE — There's no hard data — none that's been made public, anyway — but there are signs that next month's election could be a sweat for one of Vanderburgh County's most controversial political figures.

There is, at least, every indication that former United Way CEO Amy Canterbury is giving County Commissioner Cheryl Musgrave all she can handle in the May 7 Republican primary. The intraparty contest will choose the GOP's nominee for the seat Musgrave has held continuously since 2017 and in a previous stint on the Board of Commissioners. Democrat Hope Fussner is unopposed for her party's nomination.

Musgrave lost last year's GOP primary for Evansville mayor to Natalie Rascher by a stunning 28-point margin, puncturing the aura of invincibility she had built by winning all but one of her campaigns over 30 years in local politics.

Her defeat was fueled by the money and passion then-Mayor Lloyd Winnecke and wife Carol McClintock poured into Rascher's campaign, Rascher's own energy and hard work, anti-incumbent sentiment in today's GOP — and the cumulative impact of enemies Musgrave had made over the decades.

More: Anti-Musgrave mailer ignites Vanderburgh GOP primary

But Musgrave continued serving in elected office as a county commissioner, the seat she is now trying to defend against Canterbury. If she loses the May 7 GOP primary, her tenure as a commissioner would end in January. By state law, a candidate who is defeated in a primary election cannot run for the same office in the November general election unless subsequently chosen to fill a ballot vacancy.

Here are the indications this could be a close race:

• Among Canterbury's reported expenditures on pre-primary campaign finance reports that came due April 19: $10,250 to Washington, D.C.-based firm Cygnal for a poll on the race. Canterbury declined to provide poll results, but she told the Courier & Press, "the overwhelming support is incredible."

In a subsequent interview, she said her reference to overwhelming support is "from the community." The poll, Canterbury said, "would be to show where there were opportunities."

Still, giving thanks for overwhelming report after receiving the results of a commissioned poll probably doesn't mean Canterbury was discouraged by the poll, which her campaign paid for on April 9. Conversely, candidates typically are more likely to release results of their polls — which Canterbury didn't — if they're actually winning.

Musgrave's pre-primary report contains no expenditures for a poll, although she could have commissioned one and paid for it after the reporting deadline.

More: Newcomer outraises incumbent in financial race for Vanderburgh County Commissioner

• Canterbury raised nearly three times as much money as Musgrave in the Jan. 1-April 12 reporting period — $153,677 to Musgrave's $52,906. But thanks to an already existing war chest, Musgrave still ended the reporting period with more than twice as much campaign cash as Canterbury — $100,061 to $43,505.

But as political scientists are wont to say, money alone doesn't guarantee victory. In last year's race for mayor, Rascher reported raising just over $1 million and spending all but $8,328.40 of it for a campaign that garnered just under 40% of the vote.

• The ferocity of Musgrave's attacks on political newcomer Canterbury stand in contrast to her strategy in the mayoral campaign. Then, she focused her fire more on Rascher's political patron, Winnecke, than on Rascher herself.

While Canterbury has issued an attack mailer slamming Musgrave for opposing local business interests, Musgrave has attacked Canterbury as a puppet of "big business." Literally, a puppet.

More: Decision to enable challenger has Musgrave calling for Duckworth's resignation

A Musgrave mailer that dropped in the mailboxes of Republican voters recently included a photograph of Canterbury with arms extended — and controlled by strings wielded by a cartoon puppet master meant to represent big business.

"Don't let big business take over YOUR county government!" the Musgrave mailer screams.

Musgrave has portrayed herself as an independent fighter for Vanderburgh County residents who is willing to stand up to business interests and Canterbury as an obedient lapdog for the same business interests. She points out, correctly, that several members of the board of the Evansville Regional Economic Partnership (E-REP) are contributors to Canterbury's campaign.

Also among Canterbury's contributors are several political and business figures with past ties to Winnecke, Musgrave's longtime political arch-enemy.

Musgrave has called Canterbury the candidate of E-REP, which hired Winnecke, last year to be its chief executive officer.

More: 'Two-primaries law' is a weapon in Vanderburgh County GOP in-fighting

Canterbury shot back that she is no one's puppet. In the process she took a veiled shot at Musgrave, who is widely criticized as hard to work with.

"I’m not a puppet," Canterbury said. "I’m a collaborator, and I work with a lot of folks, and I know how to do it with civility."

• Musgrave has called Canterbury a "liberal Democrat," pointing to Canterbury's vote in the 2022 Democratic primary in Vanderburgh County. Canterbury voted in Republican primaries in 2018 and 2016, while Musgrave correctly points out she has a much longer history of voting in Republican primaries exclusively.

Canterbury addressed the charge by saying she wanted to vote in the Democratic nomination contest for sheriff, which pitted Noah Robinson against Jason Ashworth.

More: Here's the backstory behind Cheryl Musgrave's devastating GOP primary loss in Evansville

"The sheriff is an important role in our county, and it is a very important one to the United Way, for the safety of all of our constituents," Canterbury said. "I really didn’t have an intent on running in this race, to have that thrown back at me, but I do think (sheriff is) a very important job."

The state of the Musgrave-Canterbury race may be hinted at by Canterbury's response Thursday to a pointed question Musgrave raised about one of her mailers. Canterbury's mail piece describes her as "pro-life," "pro-gun" and "cut taxes." Musgrave pointed out that guns, abortion and cutting taxes are outside the purview of the Board of Commissioners, county government's executive governing body.

But it was another line in Canterbury's mailer that drew Musgrave's attention.

"Ready to fight back & stop woke policies in our community," the mailer stated.

Just which "woke policies" is Canterbury pledging to stop? Musgrave asked the Courier & Press.

The newspaper texted Canterbury, requesting an interview to discuss Musgrave's question.

"No need," Canterbury sent back.

This article originally appeared on Evansville Courier & Press: Musgrave-Canterbury race in Vanderburgh could be a nailbiter