Winter in New Brunswick was as mild as it seemed, says climatologist

If it felt like a winter without much snow in New Brunswick, it's not you. Fredericton-based meteorologist Jill Maepea said it didn't just feel different — it actually was different.

"In terms of the snowfall this winter, many areas, right from November to April 1, got anywhere from 25 to 50 per cent of their normal snowfall," said Maepea.

She said on the lower end of that spectrum would be southern areas, including Fredericton, Woodstock, Saint John and Moncton, while more northern areas may have had 50 to 75 per cent of their normal snowfall.

And it wasn't just a lack of snowfall — temperatures were also much warmer than usual.

Environment Canada meteorologist Jill Maepea said especially in southern areas of New Brunswick, there wasn't as much snow as usual this past winter. (Pat Richard /CBC)

David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said fall 2023 in New Brunswick was the fourth warmest in three-quarters of a century.

And winter was the second warmest in 77 years, he said, only 0.1 degree away from the warmest winter on record.

"It was not just the fact that you stuck a thermometer in the province and it seemed warmer than normal — it was consistently warm," said Phillips. "Every month, every winter month, averaged about three to five degrees warmer than normal.

"People kept waiting for the shoe to drop, they kept waiting for the cold arctic air to arrive. It never did," Phillips said.

David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, said this past winter was the second warmest on record for New Brunswick. (Environment and Climate Change Canada )

23 fewer 'typical cold' days

For example, a typical cold day in New Brunswick would be around –20 C, and Charlo, in northern New Brunswick, would usually get around 28 of those days in an average winter, said Phillips.

But this winter, Charlo only had five of those –20 C or below days.

Organizers and volunteers of the World Pond Hockey Championship in Plaster Rock tried to prepare the ice for play before the February tournament. But the lack of good ice forced its cancellation. (Kimberley Bates/Facebook)

And there was twice as much rain as there was snow during most winter months in New Brunswick.

For most people, the lack of snow and warmer temperatures might not have been a concern. For the recreation sector, Phillips said, it was very upsetting, with cancelled pond hockey games, lacklustre snowmobiling conditions and risky ice fishing.

Phillips said there are a few reasons for the warm winter, including El Niño — a climate pattern that contributes to unusual warming of ocean temperatures.

On Christmas Day, the cross country skiing trails in Charlo were bare. Phillips said Charlo only had five days that were below -20 C this winter. (Submitted by Marc Leclair)

The new norm? Not necessarily

But he said none of this means next year will be just as warm or snowless.

"A lot of people are thinking, 'Is this the new norm, where we're going to see next winter will be like this winter plus one?'" said Phillips.

The first thaw came with a month still left in the ice-fishing season, and a storm that brought rain and mild temperatures sent two fishing shacks through the ice at Renforth Wharf in Rothesay a little over a month ago. (DerekGrantDigital.com)

"I always think that's a mistake. I mean, one season doesn't necessarily give you a clue as to what the following season's going to be. Now, I think in the long term, it does give you a clue, but not in the short term."

Phillips said the challenge with predicting future seasons is that there are still wild swings in weather, making it difficult to know what's to come.

If he had to guess, though, he said next winter won't be quite as warm as this past one, since ocean temperatures likely won't be as warm.

Northern New Brunswick's snowmobile trails only opened for two months this winter. (Submitted by Cathy Pelletier)

"Two loonies is not very much, but I'd bet a couple of loonies on the fact that, hey, next winter will be more of a winter than it was this year," he said.

"So that may thrill pond hockey organizers, it may thrill snowmobilers more, ice fishers more, but hey, there's no guarantee with that.

"[There's] still going to be a bit of uncertainty and wildness in the weather."