Modesto’s fix to mayoral election turnout didn’t work. Political scientist has an answer

Modesto’s second effort to increase turnout in the mayoral election did not draw huge numbers of voters, with less than a third of the electorate expected to have cast ballots in the March 5 presidential primary.

That is disappointing for the winner. “Unfortunately in this case, more people didn’t vote,” Mayor Sue Zwahlen said. “That’s not a good thing for our society.”

A political scientist said the city can increase turnout by making two changes: Hold the mayoral election in November when turnout is at its highest and use ranked choice voting to avoid a low-turnout runoff election.

While it won’t happen in this election because of Zwahlen’s insurmountable lead of 81.7% of the vote with nearly all of the ballots tallied, the mayor’s race often is decided in a runoff between the top two finishers because no one received a majority of the vote. Five of the six previous mayoral elections were decided in runoffs.

The website Ballotpedia reports there are several ways to conduct ranked choice voting but the most common method works like this:

Voters rank their choices from first to last among the candidates. So if there are four candidates, voters would select their first, second, third and fourth choices.

If one candidate receives a majority of the vote, then the election is over and that candidate wins. If that is not the case, then the candidate who finished last is eliminated and his second-choice votes are added to the totals of the first three candidates.

Ballotpedia elaborates: All first-preference votes for the failed candidate are eliminated, and second-preference choices on these ballots are then counted as first-preference.

The process repeats until one candidate has a majority.

This method also is called an instant runoff and does away with holding a runoff election among the top two finishers at a later date if no candidate receives a majority of the vote.

“I love ranked choice voting,” said Steve Routh, a political scientist at California State University, Stanislaus. “It’s one election on Election Day .... and it’s the cheaper way to go. A runoff election is expensive.”

Routh also advocates ranked choice voting for the City Council. There is no runoff for council even if the winning candidate does not receive a majority of the vote. That was the case in three council races in the November 2020 election.

Takes public education campaign

Advocates say ranked choice ensures the strongest candidates are elected, gives voters more choices and promotes civility among candidates because they have an incentive to reach more voters.

Opponents say ranked choice voting can be confusing, works best for well-informed voters and can undermine voter confidence in elections during a time of heightened mistrust among some voters.

Routh said it would take a public education campaign to help voters get the hang of ranked choice voting. “It’s not a fascist or communist system of elections, but it is something new,” he said.

Ballotpedia reports that Alaska and Maine use ranked choice voting in federal and statewide elections, and Hawaii uses it in some statewide elections. And cities in 14 states use or are scheduled to start using ranked choice voting, according to Ballotpedia.

But Florida, Montana, South Dakota, Idaho and Tennessee have banned ranked choice voting, according to Ballotpedia.

Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2019 vetoed a bill that would allow what are called general law cities to switch to ranked choice voting, stating he had concerns that it often had led to voter confusion and California would benefit from learning more from charter cities that use ranked choice voting, according to his veto message.

Cities that have adopted their own charters have more latitude in their governance (including how they conduct their elections) than general law cities, which must follow state law. Modesto is among California’s charter cities, and the charter cities with ranked choice voting include San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley, Albany, San Leandro, Redondo Beach and Eureka.

Steve Chessin, president of Californians for Electoral Reform, said ranked choice voting has “been very successful. The only people who don’t like it are the people who lose elections because they don’t campaign effectively under it.” The nonpartisan CfER has been working for ranked choice voting for more than two decades.

Voter turnout in Modesto’s March 5 mayoral election could reach about 30%, based on the Stanislaus County Election Office’s latest results and the number of ballots remaining to be counted. That’s in line with countywide and statewide turnout.

Modesto moved its council and mayoral elections from odd to even years to comply with a state law aimed at increasing turnout. The change required voters approving amending the city charter. The first even-year election was November 2020 and turnout for the mayor’s race was 77.1% That’s about three times higher than the turnout in the last odd-year mayor’s election in November 2015.

Moving election didn’t help turnout

Zwahlen finished first among eight candidates in November 2020 with 23.8% of the vote. She beat former Councilman Doug Ridenour in the February 2021 runoff, in which turnout plummeted to 29.4%. The City Council’s fix was to move the mayoral election to the primary and the runoff to the November election.

But the turnout for March 5 is on track to be similar to the turnout for the February 2021 runoff.

Routh said primaries and runoffs are characterized by low turnout. The March 5 primary did not generate excitement among voters in part because there was little doubt about the presidential nominees. But even in the 2020 presidential primary, which featured competitive races, turnout was about 44% in Stanislaus County.

Zwahlen brought up ranked choice voting during a December 2021 council workshop regarding several changes to the city charter — including moving the mayor’s election to the primary and the runoff to November — that later were approved by voters.

She said she had researched the voting method and was intrigued by it. But she pulled her proposal once it became apparent it would take several workshops for the council to fully understand the pros and cons.

Zwahlen said she remains interested in ranked choice voting and wants to do more research. She likes that it eliminates a runoff, making it less expensive for candidates to run for mayor. She said lower cost can draw more candidates into the race.

But she said it’s too soon to give up on electing the mayor in the primary after just one election. “I still think it’s a good decision,” she said.