In Miami-Dade mayoral race, COVID is the top worry and a Democrat is ahead, poll says

The two candidates for Miami-Dade mayor enjoy lopsided support from their political parties, and that’s pushed Democrat Daniella Levine Cava into a lead over Republican Esteban “Steve” Bovo Jr. in the officially non-partisan race between the county commissioners.

Levine Cava leads Bovo by 10 points in the new poll for the Miami Herald by Bendixen & Amandi International, 45% to 35%.

With mail-in balloting underway in a county where Democrats outnumber Republicans, the poll casts Bovo as the underdog in a race to be the county’s mayor after term-limited Carlos Gimenez prepares to leave office after nine years.

The findings show more support for both candidates since the first Bendixen poll of the fall race four weeks ago, when Levine Cava led by seven points. Even as both contenders gain support, the gap has widened enough to place Levine Cava’s lead outside the survey’s four-point margin of error.

The Coconut Grove firm polled 600 likely voters, with live interviews conducted in English and Spanish from Oct. 1 to Oct. 4.

This is just one poll in a contest where independent surveys are rare. Miami-Dade voters can’t track the ups and downs of public opinion toward mayoral candidates the way they can watch the state and national horse-race numbers between President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden.

The Bendixen survey finds the presidential race mostly locked down in Miami-Dade, with 5% undecided and Biden leading Trump by 20 points. The mayoral race is much more fluid, with 20% of voters saying they don’t yet have a favorite between the two candidates.

If correct, the survey shows presidential politics seeping into a county-level race in a way that Miami-Dade hasn’t seen before, as Trump’s reelection bid energizes voters in a county where Democrats hold a sizable registration advantage.

Nearly three out of four Democrats backed Levine Cava in the survey, and Bovo also enjoyed roughly 75% support from Republicans. Bovo won 75% of the vote from Miami-Dade residents backing Trump in the survey, and Levine Cava took 68% of the vote from the county’s Biden voters.

“Presidential politics hasn’t mattered to the degree that we’re seeing now,” said Fernand Amandi, managing partner of the firm. “Part of it is all issues now are seen through very partisan lenses. Even the approach to COVID is seen through the partisan lens. The approach to climate change... You tend to see the partisans with the biggest bases emerge as the contenders.”

Levine Cava, a two-term county commissioner and former social worker, has run a fall campaign closely aligned with the Democratic Party, which is paying the rent on Levine Cava’s field offices.

Christian Ulvert, a leading Democratic operative in Miami-Dade who is also Levine Cava’s campaign manager, said her campaign remains a non-partisan effort.

“If the Democratic Party wants to use their resource to make sure a champion of working families is elected, we obviously welcome that,” he said, between breaks from working at Biden’s campaign stop in Miami. “What we’re doing is a values-based election. Our message really resonates with voters.”

Bovo has complained about efforts to make the non-partisan race a contest between the parties in a county where Democrats make up 41% of the electorate and Republicans just under 30%. At a recent appearance, Bovo said people shouldn’t vote for Trump or Biden if they don’t like them but “neither of them will get your garbage picked up.”

Being a Republican was a boost for Bovo in the August primary for mayor, where he was the only elected Republican in a field of six candidates and included photos of him with Trump in campaign mailers.

Levine Cava and former county mayor Alex Penelas split the Democratic vote, according to precinct data, and Bovo finished first, less than 1% ahead of Levine Cava. Because no candidate won 50% of the vote, the top two finishers moved onto a November runoff that overlaps with the presidential election and Gimenez’s own race as the Republican candidate for the 26th Congressional District.

The survey by Bendixen & Amandi, a firm best known for work in Democratic campaigns, showed some bright spots for Bovo, a former Hialeah council member who has been on the county commission since 2011.

He’s ahead with independents, 34% to 28%. The son of a Bay of Pigs veteran who speaks fluent Spanish, Bovo also is the overwhelming choice for Cuban-American voters, with 53% support to Levine Cava’s 32%.

Bovo is also doing well with voters who see the economy as Miami-Dade’s top challenge (50% to Levine Cava’s 31%), and traffic (54% to 19%). But the 2020 race has those traditional concerns taking a backseat to the coronavrius crisis, which was the top pick (29%) as the county’s biggest challenge.

For voters most concerned about COVID-19, Levine Cava dominated: 57% to 25%.

County law bars identifying mayoral candidates by “Rep” or “Dem” on ballots, so Levine Cava has to rely on mailers, campaigning and media coverage to let voters know she’s a Democrat.

She’s enjoyed a financial advantage in the race, raising about $5.3 million to Bovo’s $4 million. But with help from a Gov. Ron DeSantis fund-raising stop in Coral Gables last month, Bovo has enjoyed a surge of dollars in recent weeks and closed the gap. He has about $850,000 to spend with four weeks to go, and she has $890,000.

A Bovo win would extend Miami-Dade’s history of electing Cuban-American mayors, a streak that began when Penelas won his first term in 1996. Along with being Miami-Dade’s first female mayor, Levine Cava would be the first non-Hispanic to hold the office since Stephen Clark was elected in the 1990s.

The Bendixen poll shows a tight fight for Hispanic voters, with 40% for Bovo and 39% for Levine Cava. The contest for White voters isn’t quite as close, with 44% for Levine Cava and 40% for Bovo. Levine Cava enjoys a large advantage with Black voters, capturing 71% support to Bovo’s 10%.

In a statement, the Bovo campaign declined a request to discuss the survey results.

“Steve Bovo is busy campaigning, connecting with voters, and sharing the clear contrast between Levine Cava’s radical agenda and Bovo’s common sense solutions for Miami-Dade’s future,” read the statement from consultant David Custin. “And it’s being well received.”