This metro-east county may be especially vulnerable to extreme winter weather, report says

St. Clair County and three St. Louis area counties were recently named some of the “most vulnerable counties for extreme winter weather” in the U.S. by home service website HVAC Gnome.

St. Louis County placed second in the ranking, while St. Louis City was 12th, St. Charles County was 25th and St. Clair County was 57th.

Factors examined in the ranking included average historic winter temperatures, a “winter weather risk score,” “ice storm risk score” and “cold wave risk score” and expected annual financial loss from winter weather events, ice storms and cold waves.

Alan Black, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville assistant professor who teaches climatology and climate change, extreme events, atmospheric hazards and impacts, weather and transportation, told the News-Democrat recently he would recommend taking the ranking with a grain of salt, though some factors may align with current research.

One reason metro-east and St. Louis area residents may want to think critically about the HVAC Gnome ranking is some of the methodology isn’t described very specifically, including the “winter weather risk score.”

Black also said there may be an area in which the region stands out for its winter weather risk.

“I do a lot of work on winter weather as it relates to vehicle crashes, and one of the places with the highest risk of crash during winter weather is the St. Louis region,” Black said.

The reasons the St. Louis region has an elevated winter weather crash risk are not entirely clear yet, Black said, but one possible explanation is the area typically sees snowy and icy roads a few times a year.

Local drivers probably don’t have as much experience driving in winter conditions as people from Chicago or Minneapolis might, Black continued, but most businesses and workplaces don’t usually shut down in St. Louis the same way they might in Dallas or Atlanta when those cities get snow.

Winter weather crash risks typically increase more when there is freezing rain than when it’s just snowing, Black said, and drivers are likely at a 20% to 30% increased risk of crashing in winter conditions. The upside, though, is research shows fatal crash risks actually decrease due to slower driving, Black added.

Here’s what else to know about extreme weather risks in southwestern Illinois and the St. Louis region.

Extreme weather risk in the metro-east and St. Louis region

As the Midwest and the rest of the world grapples with climate change, metro-east and St. Louis residents can expect dramatic weather swings to happen more often. Flip-flops from abnormally dry conditions to flash flooding and from icy roads to far above-normal temperatures are something climate experts expect to occur more frequently as the planet warms.

In addition to more extreme winter weather events when the arctic air mass makes its way down, the metro-east and St. Louis have experienced excessive heat in recent years, something that’s also expected to increase in frequency and magnitude.

“We will have more dangerous heat days in the summer,” Black said.

Last year, St. Louis had the second-warmest annual average temperature ever recorded, the National Weather Service reports. The warmest on record was recorded in 2012. The summer of 2023 also saw two days make the top 10 list for the highest low temperatures ever reported in St. Louis. July 28, 2023, had a low temperature of 85 degrees Fahrenheit, second only to a day in 1901 and a day in 2012 when the low was 86 degrees.

People who don’t have air conditioning or who work outside will need to be especially careful as temperatures warm, Black said. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reports heat likely causes more than 1,300 deaths in the country each year, with many more due to increased risk of heart attacks, respiratory diseases and other health issues.

Another severe weather risk, tornadoes, are also likely to occur more often, Black continued. The number of days where the atmospheric ingredients for tornadoes all come together is expected to increase by one to three days each year in the metro-east region, and flash flooding risk will probably increase much more than that, Black said.

The most important thing people can do to prepare for more extreme weather events is to have a way to receive weather information and make a plan, Black said. In winter weather conditions, Black advised avoiding unnecessary travel, driving slowly and keeping an emergency kit in your car with a coat, shovel and cat litter for traction.