Meteorology Monday (5/27/24): 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Elmira, N.Y. (WETM)- The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has released its May outlook on this year’s hurricane season. On this week’s segment of Meteorology Monday, 18 Storm Team Meteorologist Alivia Colon breaks down this forecast and some of the factors that contributed to its outcome.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts an 85% chance of above-normal tropical activity for this upcoming hurricane season. Two main factors that led to this outcome are higher than average ocean temperatures and a transition to La Nina. But how do these factors relate to tropical weather?
The key ingredients for tropical cyclones include warm ocean temperatures above 80 degrees, converging winds allowing for upward motion, abundant moisture, and weak wind shear (or when upper-level winds blow mainly in the same direction and have little change with height.) La Nina helps to weaken trade winds in the Atlantic, which in turn weakens wind shear. We also have an abundance of oceanic heat. Not only are ocean temperatures higher than normal, but temperatures are higher in deeper levels of the ocean. Warm water acts as fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes, and when there is more warm water, those storms can last longer and grow bigger. The increasing water temperatures also aid in providing additional moisture.
These two factors make conditions significantly more favorable for and stronger and an increasing number of storms. CPC forecasts anywhere from 17-25 named storms, including 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). These numbers already exceed the seasonal averages (between 1990 and 2020) which sit at 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
Hurricane season officially begins this week on June 1st and continues until November 30th. CPC generally releases 2 outlooks on the hurricane season, one in late spring before the official start of hurricane season, and an update to the outlook in early August, right before the average peak hurricane season. As we get closer to the hurricane season, we will continue to keep you informed on the updated outlook.
You can find more info on NOAA’s hurricane season predictions and the World Meteorological Organization’s list of tropical storm names for 2024 here.
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