Merkel's chancellorship under threat as coalition talks deadline approaches

Angela Merkel is facing make-or-break coalition talks which could decide her future as chancellor of Germany.

Negotiations were expected to last late into Thursday night as Mrs Merkel tries to form a new government following damaging losses in September’s election.

With the parties still deeply divided hours ahead of a Friday morning deadline, Mrs Merkel’s political future has begun to be questioned for the first time.

If the talks cannot reach agreement, Germany could face new elections — and Mrs Merkel could face a challenge to her leadership from within her own party.

The world’s most powerful woman was visibly tired as she headed into the marathon talks in Berlin. “We can do this,” she told reporters. “This is a difficult, complicated task, but the will is there. It is vitally important for our country. We have a great responsibility.”

Mrs Merkel is trying to form a new multi-party government with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the Green Party after losing her former coalition partner in September’s elections.

But the potential partners hold opposing views on key issues ranging from migrants to the environment, and the talks have been deadlocked for weeks.

The parties have agreed to a self-imposed deadline of Friday morning to decide whether they can work together.

If they can reach a deal on the most contentious issues, they will proceed to formal coalition negotiations. 

If not, Mrs Merkel will face a scramble to head off the threat of new elections, in which her Christian Democrat party (CDU) fears it could suffer further losses to the nationalist Alternative for Germany party (AfD).

She was said to be planning one-on-one talks with other party leaders on Thursday evening in a bid to hammer out a deal.

Senior negotiators struck a note of pessimism, with Wolfgang Kubicki,the FDP deputy leader, talking of a “hurricane” hanging over the talks.

“I don’t know if we can iron out all our differences,” Joachim Herrmann of Mrs Merkel’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) said.

But in a sign of progress, a draft agreement was leaked to the press, in which the parties said they had “found enough common ground to recommend opening formal coalition negotiations”.

Graphic: Germany’s political spectrum

And there were unconfirmed reports of an agreement on tax cuts, one of the issues that had been dividing the parties.

Seasoned observers believe the hardline positions adopted by the parties are a sign of posturing so they can claim to voters they held out for the best deal, and that the fear of new elections will force them into an agreement.

It is not Mrs Merkel who has struggled to find common ground with her partners. Her biggest problem has been bringing the FDP and Greens together, while her Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has proved just as intransigent over migrants.

Two years after her controversial decision to open Germany’s borders to more than one million asylum-seekers, it is not surprising the issue has dominated the talks.

But it is the Greens, rather than Mrs Merkel, who have been holding out for a continuation of her “open-door” policy. Mrs Merkel has agreed to an upper limit of 200,000 asylum-seekers allowed into Germany each year. The Greens oppose an upper limit, while the CSU says it will not join a coalition without one.

The Greens are also demanding refuges should be able to bring their relatives to join them in Germany — something opposed by all the other parties.

On the environment, the Greens have called for the closure of coal-fired power stations and for measures to phase out combustion engines. The FDP says these would damage German business, while Mrs Merkel’s party fears job losses in the coal industry could drive voters into the hands of the AfD.

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If the negotiations break down, Mrs Merkel could still look to her former coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD) for a lifeline, and ask it to reconsider its decision to go into opposition following disastrous election losses.

Another option would be for Mrs Merkel to attempt to form a minority government. Failing that, Germany would be headed for new elections — and Mrs Merkel’s party could look for a new leader to fight them.