Meloni and Eurosceptics Want to Enlist Orban — for a Price

Chiara Albanese, Zoltan Simon and Natalia Ojewska
·5 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Some of the continent’s top right-wing politicians including Italy’s Giorgia Meloni are seeking to bring Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban into their political family, in a bid to reshape their pan-European party into a legitimate force in Brussels.

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The Italian premier and former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki have met with Orban in the past few weeks to discuss his Fidesz party joining the European Conservatives and Reformists group, according to people familiar with the negotiations. In the talks, both Meloni and Morawiecki issued a clear caveat: the outspoken Hungarian leader would need to moderate some of his positions.

Such a move would have the potential to radically reshape politics in Brussels and put the ECR in the running to become the third-largest group after the European Parliament elections in June. That would give the ECR greater influence on European Union business and signal a growing role for nationalist politicians who are promoting anti-immigrant and eurosceptic agendas.

“I spoke about it with Viktor Orban, so I know Hungary might consider entering the ECR,” Morawiecki, who leads the Polish delegation of Law and Order in parliament, said in an interview. “That would enhance our capabilities to act for a better Europe.”

The challenge for other European lawmakers is in what “better” might entail. Like Orban, Poland under Law & Justice rule championed a brand of right-wing populism by tapping into nativist sentiment and cultural grievances. It weaponized LGBTQ rights, abortion rights, and Ukrainian grain shipments, drawing rebuke from moderates in the 27-member bloc.

The ECR could gain 80 seats in parliament if the European election were held today, according to a recent poll of polls by Europe Elects. If Fidesz joined ECR and if it were to match the 13 seats it won in 2019, that could boost the party into third behind the European People’s Party and the Socialists and Democrats.

The biggest challenge for a grand right-wing coalition would be to reconcile their diverse stances on Ukraine, given the fact that Hungary is led by the most Kremlin-friendly government in the EU while the rest of the ECR strongly backs Kyiv, That’s particularly true of the Law and Justice party, which currently holds the most seats in the group.

“We agree on some issues and disagree on others,” Morawiecki said. “But certainly we have common goals — more power to European people, less EU bureaucracy, more security and common sense, less migration and other self-harming policies.”

The strategy carries risks for Meloni, a relative newcomer to the big leagues of European politics. Taming the five-term Orban — the EU’s longest-serving premier — is a tall challenge, especially since he has had ambitions of his own to unite the continent’s nationalist parties, which are currently splintered between ECR and Identity and Democracy, home of France’s Marine Le Pen.

The Hungarian leader has had a spotty record when it comes to alliances in Brussels. Three years ago Fidesz was pushed out of the EU’s largest political group, the European People’s Party, over the erosion of democratic standards in Hungary.

“Mr. Orban is not somebody who can be easily softened,” Nicolas Schmit, the EU’s social rights chief who is leading the campaign for the Socialists ahead of the election, said in an interview. “If he joins the ECR, this is also gives us a very clear signal of what the ECR represents.”

The EPP had largely shielded and legitimized Orban’s decade-long power consolidation in Budapest. Since then, Fidesz has been without a pan-European party, and has ramped up a campaign of derailing legislation it doesn’t agree with.

There are clear near-term advantages for Orban to strike a deal now. Inclusion in the ECR — alongside Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice and the nationalist Sweden Democrats, among other — would give Orban much-needed support during Hungary’s six-month presidency, which begins in July.

Orban has been a thorn in the EU’s side, becoming adept at using the bloc’s Byzantine rules to derail and delay critical business pushed by the remaining 26 member states. Earlier this month, he threatened to veto the EU’s €50 billion ($53.7 billion) aid package for Ukraine, and in December, he said he would block opening membership talks with Kyiv.

On both issues, the Hungarian leader backed down — partly under Meloni’s influence. She held three separate conversations with Orban on the sidelines of the summit in Brussels, which contributed to him lifting his veto on the Ukraine funding, Bloomberg has reported.

Morawiecki, deputy chairman of the Law and Justice party and a former prime minister of Poland, also met with Orban on the sidelines of the same event, telling him that he must rein in his stance before he can join the ECR, according to another person familiar with the matter, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity.

In recent remarks to the press, Orban referred to the move as almost a done deal. However, securing sufficient reassurances of a more cooperative approach could take time, and Fidesz’s accession is unlikely before the June elections, the people said.

Success in reigning in the Hungarian leader would prove not only Meloni’s foreign policy credentials but would also be a relief for the EU, which has grown weary of fighting with Orban on multiple fronts. Orban’s self-styled “illiberal” approach has seen him clash with it on topics including its ban on Russia oil over the war in Ukraine, migration and the rule of law.

On Monday, his lawmakers boycotted a parliamentary session on Sweden’s entry into NATO, ensuring further delays in the long-running standoff between Budapest — the lone holdout — and its partners in the military alliance.

“We need to join forces on many different fronts to save Europe,” Morawiecki said. “ECR will most likely accept everyone who agrees against the dominant liberal and left-wing groups that are on course to destroy Europe.”

--With assistance from Jorge Valero, Ewa Krukowska and Max Ramsay.

(Adds Hungarian context to 5th paragraph.)

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