Measure E sales tax proposal is failing again. Will Fresno State’s famed Red Wave step up?

Measure E, the proposed sales tax that would boost academic and infrastructure projects at Fresno State, appeared headed toward defeat late Tuesday, well shy of the 50% plus one vote needed to pass.

In a second update around 9:45 p.m. it had received just 45.1% of 71,383 votes cast.

That is a gut punch on a campus with an estimated $500 million in deferred maintenance projects, that is in a California State University system with 22 other campuses in similar predicaments and in a state with no plan to address its decaying classrooms and facilities on CSU and University of California campuses.

It hurts the university’s athletics interests as well - the aged Valley Children’s Stadium is in dire need of renovation, and 15% of the $63 million in annual revenue that Measure E would generate over 25 years would go toward badly-needed upgrades of athletics facilities.

But facilities upgrades are only one of two primary issues facing the Bulldogs’ athletic department, with both running on very steep, parallel tracks.

“Measure E is based on infrastructure,” athletics director Terry Tumey said. “But the true elevation of our athletics program and the operation of our athletics program, is still going to be dependent upon revenue generation, whether it be from ticket sales, from philanthropic donations or through corporate sponsorship. We still have a high hill to climb to get to the level of excellence that we think Fresno State deserves.”

Measure E would not close a considerable resource gap in operating revenue. Whether it passes or fails, that is on the fabled fan base, the Red Wave. The pressure only ratchets up if Fresno County voters reject the tax measure, with the Bulldogs needing to remain competitive and relevant in a rapidly-changing college athletics landscape while university leadership comes up with a plan to address academic and athletics facilities upgrades, other than playing the Powerball every Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.

Fresno State trails the schools at the top of the Mountain West Conference in athletics revenues, and the schools that made a jump to the Power Five level by even greater margins.

BULLDOGS, AND BOOSTING OPERATING REVENUE

Fresno State reported $54.9 million in athletics revenues in 2021-22, the most recent year where data is available for all Mountain West schools, while San Diego State reported $65.9 million, UNLV $64.2 million and Colorado State $61.3 million. Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, in their final years in the American Athletic Conference before joining the Big 12, were at $83.3 million, $78.1 million and $89.2 million.

An inflection point is nearing.

When Tumey was hired in 2018, a top priority was energizing the Bulldogs’ fan base. Football attendance was down, and even winning 10 games in 2017 and 12 games and a Mountain West championship in 2018 didn’t entice many fans back into the stadium.

The average attendance in those two seasons was 30,632 and 31,503 in a venue with a listed capacity of 40,727.

The COVID-19 pandemic wiped out a season, but attendance has steadily built from there. Fresno State was willing to sacrifice some ticket revenue with discounts and special promotions to fill the house, create an atmosphere and generate a high degree of excitement around its football program and athletics department. That so far has worked - Fresno State won on the field and the past two years has averaged more than 39,000 per game, last season leading all Group of Five conference programs at 39,969. It also steadily increased revenue from football ticket sales, hitting $5.3 million in 2022-23, its highest since the 2014 season when at $6.1 million.

Revenue from parking and concessions sales also has increased, as did royalties, licensing and sponsorship deals.

That was designed to drive greater community investment in the Bulldogs’ athletics programs, with interest at a peak and the possibility of someday playing on a larger stage with continued conference expansion.

Tumey and his staff have executed the first part of that plan.

Fresno State, Tumey said, needs its fan base, and that would be the case even if Measure E were to pass.

The athletics department does not come close to covering scholarship costs for the 373 student-athletes who receive full or partial aid, a bill that came to $7.7 million in 2023-24, according to the financial report it submits annually to the NCAA.

It reported $5.8 million in revenue from donations, which is less than pre-COVID-19 pandemic numbers and well below several Mountain West schools. The Bulldogs rank just sixth in the conference behind San Diego State ($38.4 million), Boise State ($12.7), Colorado State ($11.5), Wyoming ($7.8) and Utah State ($6.1).

Fresno State, at a disadvantage with a basketball program that struggles to get fans into the Save Mart Center, where it receives no revenue from suite leases, signage, parking or concessions sales, also ranks fifth in the conference in all sports ticket revenue.

The university could help, as well. Fresno State, one of three California State University campuses that compete in the Mountain West, receives far less revenue from student fees than does San Diego State or San Jose State.

San Diego State received $13 million from student fees last year, according to a database maintained by USA Today. San Jose State received $8.8 million from student fees and Fresno State, just $4.4 million.

Fresno State for the 2023-24 academic year also ranks 20th among the 23 California State University campuses in tuition plus mandatory fees at $6,973, according to the CSU, and 21st in full cost of attendance including books and supplies, food and off-campus housing, transportation and personal/miscellaneous expenses.

If the university added a $100 fee per year toward athletics it would generate around $2.4 million annually and it still would rank the 20th and 21st in the system.