McConnell, Speaker Johnson headed for shutdown clash over Ukraine

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) are headed for a showdown over emergency funding for Ukraine and funding the government beyond Thanksgiving, two tough issues that will test their ability to work together.

McConnell says he wants to keep military aid to Ukraine and Israel tied together because he views those conflicts as part of a larger global threat. He has repeatedly warned that picking a fight with Democrats that could result in a government shutdown is bad politics for the GOP.

Johnson says he wants to “bifurcate” the issues of Ukraine and Israel, and he has signaled early support for a stopgap funding bill that would include steep cuts to nondefense spending, which Democrats say would have no chance of passing the Senate.

Beyond the next three weeks, McConnell wants to pass the regular appropriations bills before Christmas in order to boost defense spending, while Johnson has floated the idea of freezing federal funding with a stopgap measure lasting until January or April.

Johnson has also proposed offsetting $14 billion in aid to Israel with other spending cuts, an idea that will be controversial with Senate Republicans and Democrats alike.

Adding to the challenge, few Republican senators had even heard of Johnson before his sudden election as Speaker on Wednesday, and McConnell still hasn’t even met him in person, though they spoke on the phone the day of Johnson’s election.

McConnell highlighted the challenges ahead, telling his Senate colleagues “we have a lot of work ahead of us” and urging House and Senate Republicans to “work together on a number of urgent priorities.”

Republican conservatives who want to shake up the GOP establishment in Washington and who were rooting for Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) to win the Speaker’s gavel are pleased by Johnson’s rise to power.

“We need to start breaking the mold around here. This isn’t working. We’re $33.5 trillion in debt. The old way of doing business has failed, is failing. We need to approach things differently. From my standpoint, within [the] Republican conference we need a different form of governance,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.).

Sen. Johnson voted against reelecting McConnell to another term as leader in November.

McConnell and Speaker Johnson have strikingly different relationships to former President Trump and were on opposite sides of the debate on Jan. 6, 2021, when Johnson laid out the lawyerly arguments that many House Republicans used to justify their votes against certifying President Biden’s election.

McConnell hasn’t spoken to Trump since mid-December 2020 and hasn’t mentioned the former president’s name publicly in several years. He recently pushed back on Trump’s criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

By contrast, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who led the push to oust Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from the Speakership, praised the new Speaker as “MAGA Mike Johnson” and proclaimed his election “shows the ascendance for this movement.”

McConnell and Johnson also have strikingly different views of the role of the federal government in steering the national abortion debate.

McConnell has made it clear on several occasions that restrictions on abortion should be left to the states, arguing that Congress is hopelessly divided and no federal abortion law could muster 60 votes to pass the Senate.

Johnson sees abortion very much as a national issue and earlier this year co-sponsored a bill declaring the right to life guaranteed by the Constitution is vested in each human being at all stages of life, including the moment of fertilization.

He also introduced a bill in February to make it a crime to transport minors across state lines to get an abortion without first satisfying parental involvement laws in the minor’s state of residence.

And Johnson has to worry about the potential that a handful of House conservatives could force him out of the job through a motion to vacate, the tactic they used to fire McCarthy when he brought a bipartisan funding bill to the House floor to avoid a government shutdown.

Yet somehow McConnell and Johnson have to find a way to avoid a government shutdown and position the party ahead of the 2024 election to win back the White House and Senate and increase their slim House majority.

“Institutionally they pretty much have to work together,” said Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University who has held several Senate fellowships.

“Paradoxically, McConnell finds it much easier to talk to [Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)] than his Republican counterpart in the House,” he added.

Baker observed that while McConnell and Schumer have established a working relationship and know where each other stand, Johnson largely remains a mystery to many Republican senators.

“I wonder how long he’ll be Speaker for?” wondered Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), reflecting broader uncertainty among Senate Republicans whether Johnson will have much leeway to cut deals with Democrats to pass legislation.

Some Republican senators, however, are hopeful that Johnson will show a “pragmatic” side now that he is in leadership.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), a fellow member of the Louisiana delegation, noted that Johnson has leadership experience as a former chairman of the House Republican Steering Committee.

Asked if Johnson has what it takes to keep the government open, Cassidy replied: “Simple answer, yes. We don’t know until it happens, but I think so.”

Johnson heartened some Republicans such as McConnell who view the war in Ukraine as a top national security priority by telling Fox News host Sean Hannity in an interview that “we can’t allow Putin to prevail in Ukraine.”

He echoed McConnell’s argument that Putin’s aggression threatens the rest of Europe and that failing to stop Russia “would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan.”

Senate conservatives who worked closely with members of the House Freedom Caucus on the debt limit and keeping Ukraine money off a stopgap funding measure last month predict that McConnell will have a tough time persuading Johnson to link Israel and Ukraine funding or advancing spending bills without steep cuts that would risk a government shutdown.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who praised Johnson as “a good man” and “a friend,” said McConnell and Johnson “obviously are of different generations.”

Cruz noted that he worked “closely” with Johnson on “numerous” amicus briefs at the Supreme Court defending religious liberty.

“I would expect the two of them to have very different approaches,” he said.

McConnell, 81, this year became the longest-serving party leader in Senate history — he’s spent more than 16 years as the Senate GOP leader. Johnson, 51, was just elected to the House in 2016.

Cruz said the old Washington game of passing a bill with strong bipartisan support and trying to jam the House before a key deadline or holiday won’t get Johnson to bring it to the House floor.

“What Biden and Schumer are doing, which is holding Israel aid hostage in order to pass all of their other partisan priorities, is profoundly cynical,” Cruz said.

Cruz said any plan to jam the House with a $100 billion foreign aid package or other government funding package is “wishful thinking.”

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.