McCarthy's successor pick will face Republican foe

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Next week’s special election to replace former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has another layer of intrigue, after The Associated Press projected that the November general election will feature McCarthy’s chosen successor running against another Republican.

Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux secured the second general election spot on Wednesday, eclipsing Democrat Marisa Wood and setting a November matchup with state Assemblymember Vince Fong, a former McCarthy aide.

The results set the stage for the March 19 special election to fill out McCarthy’s unexpired term. Whoever emerges from that race — whether next week or in a potential May 21 runoff if no candidate earns a majority of the vote — will have a powerful incumbent's advantage going into November.

McCarthy and much of the Republican establishment coalesced behind Fong, who also snagged a critical endorsement from former President Donald Trump. He piled up funds and benefited from a McCarthy-linked Super PAC.

But that was not enough to block Boudreaux from advancing as the sheriff accumulated local endorsements and channeled skepticism of the Bakersfield-area machine that produced both McCarthy and Fong.

As of late Wednesday morning, Fong led Boudreaux, 41 percent to 25 percent — suggesting Fong has an outside chance of getting a majority in next week’s special election. While the primary for November included 11 candidates — seven of whom identified as Republicans — the special election ballot is smaller: nine candidates, with only four Republicans.

California's 20th Congressional District is a rare Republican outpost in a deeply Democratic state, which makes it all but certain to stay in Republican hands. Fong's allies sought to seal his ascension by spending money to boost Wood, whom Fong likely would have crushed in a general election.

If a potential special election runoff in May is also between Fong and Boudreaux, the race will turn on geographical and ideological fissures and could illuminate the kind of disagreements within the Republican Party that fueled McCarthy's ouster from the speakership.