Mark Davis: Texas GOP is changing. Super Tuesday showed us just how much | Opinion

Headed into Super Tuesday, much Texas Republican speculation centered on how many allies of House Speaker Dade Phelan might be picked off by challengers endorsed by various combinations of Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Few foresaw Phelan himself drawing fewer votes than challenger David Covey in Beaumont’s House District 21.

Yet there were the totals Wednesday morning: Covey at 46%, Phelan 43%. If third-place Alicia Davis had not mounted her anti-Phelan effort, Covey would have won outright. That math should smile on his efforts in the runoff May 28, unless the embattled speaker is able to attract support that eluded him Tuesday.

That will be hard on runoff day, for Phelan and other incumbents facing challenges from the right. Twelve weeks down the road from a crowded primary election date, lower-turnout runoffs tend to attract voters with a higher level of passion, especially if change is in the wind.

This bodes well for Helen Kerwin, who outdrew Cleburne incumbent DeWayne Burns in District 58, Katrina Pierson, who edged Rockwall’s Justin Holland in District 33, and Keresa Richardson, who led a three-way race that held McKinney’s Frederick Frazier to 32 percent. Incumbents are forced into runoffs only if a majority preferred someone else; the resulting political blood in the water tends to lure back voters looking to finish the job.

When there is no incumbent, open-seat free-for-alls can yield surprises. Fort Worth state Rep. Craig Goldman seemed headed for an outright win on the path to succeeding Rep. Kay Granger in the 12th Congressional District. But with challengers John O’Shea and Clint Dorris garnering 40 percent, Goldman was held to 44 in a five-person field. The runoff against O’Shea will be a test of the district’s conservative temperature, pitting Goldman’s Granger-like center-right sensibilities against a Paxton-endorsed, MAGA-friendly rival.

If that result raised eyebrows, so did the absence of a runoff in the 26th District, where 11 hopefuls jockeyed to fill the shoes of retiring Rep. Michael Burgess. The question seemed to be whether Scott Armey or John Huffman would face off with predicted frontrunner Brandon Gill. But buoyed by a Trump endorsement (and beating back a famously fraudulent anti-MAGA ad campaign), Gill cruised to 58%, with no rival topping 15%.

Endorsements from Trump, Patrick, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, former Gov. Rick Perry and a cohort of GOP state senators could not lift former Denton County GOP chairman Brent Hagenbuch onto a clear path to Austin. The race to succeed outgoing Sen. Drew Springer in District 30 will pit Hagenbuch against Jace Yarbrough, the conservative attorney who edged Paxton-endorsed Dr. Carrie de Moor for second place and was just two points behind Hagenbuch, 36% to 34%.

The runoff will turn on what happens with the remaining 30% who voted for de Moor and retired cop Cody Clark (who gets an honorable mention for his website, proudly declining contributions with the claim “I want your support, not your cash,” featuring a red square labeled “Definitely not a donate button.”)

The avalanche of state government storylines nearly overshadowed the role Texas played in cementing Super Tuesday as a defining moment in the re-ascendancy of Trump. His wall of successes finally drove Nikki Haley from the race Wednesday morning, when the rising sun cast light on how the vanquished would handle their fate at every level.

In House District 60 west of Fort Worth, Glenn Rogers lashed out at those who showed him the door, in a Weatherford newspaper column attacking Abbott and choosing to blame high-level donors rather than accept that voters simply preferred Mike Olcott.

Haley did not similarly stoop, but made clear that her first move would not be a Trump endorsement. “This is his time,” she admitted, then issuing a nervy challenge for someone so soundly rejected by so many: She claims it is up to him to “earn the vote of those who did not support him.”

Not quite. It is the job of her voters to search themselves for any actual Republican DNA and realize it is they who must re-focus — toward the prime goal of the party, defeating Joe Biden.

Primary seasons tend to cleanse, shed light and define. Super Tuesday was a boost for conservatives who favor Trump, embrace a red Texas and have it in for Dade Phelan and his allies who engineered the Paxton impeachment and tolerate Democrats chairing House committees.

Recent years have featured a lot of the smart kids saying the national GOP would rediscover the charms of the Bush/McCain/Romney years and that Texas would soon lean toward blue. Those observations are officially on hold. The winds are blowing rightward.

Mark Davis hosts a morning radio show in Dallas-Fort Worth on 660-AM and at 660amtheanswer.com. Follow him on X: @markdavis .

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