Many of Trump's claims about the border immigration and crime don't stack up

Former President Donald Trump made a campaign swing through Grand Rapids on Tuesday to talk about record levels of migrants coming across the southern border without prior authorization and the impact it's having on communities ― especially in terms of crime ― more than a thousand miles away in Michigan.

As usual, Trump in many instances didn't hew to the facts or left out important context while characterizing his own record or making claims about President Joe Biden's policies, though it is without question that U.S. Border Patrol's numbers of so-called encounters with migrants trying to cross the border has exploded during Biden's term.

More: Political debate over border security slams into west Michigan as Trump visits

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has also reported that the number of removals and detentions ― as well as the number of non-detained immigrants released into the country pending a final determination on their status ― rose substantially in 2023 over the previous year. So did the number of immigrants arrested or detained on criminal charges, though that is a small fraction of the total number of people who have entered the country. And as has been reported often before, immigrants are far less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans, not least because a commission of a serious enough crime can get them deported.

Here's a look at some of Trump's claims and the facts behind them:

'Carnage and chaos and killing from all over the world'

Trump began his short speech by emphasizing how mass migration into the U.S. is generating violent crime, spotlighting the recent arrest of a man deported in 2020, who reentered the country and was accused of shooting a woman with whom he had previously had a relationship in Grand Rapids last month, though her family disputes they were close. Police have charged Brandon Ortiz-Vite, 25, with killing Ruby Garcia. But there is no evidence that migration overall has caused a spike in violent crime, if not least for the reason that violent crime was down across the U.S. last year, according to the FBI. Michigan hasn't yet put out its specific crime totals for 2023 but in 2022, violent crime was down from the previous year while property crimes were up.

Illegal immigration 'was at its lowest point' when Trump served

There is no question that Trump made cracking down on undocumented migrants crossing into the U.S. and expelling those already in the country a major theme of his 2016 run for the White House, just as he is doing running for reelection this year, and he enjoyed some success. Both in 2017 and in 2020, the number of southern border encounters were among the lowest they've been in decades (with the only other real exception being in 2011, just after the recession). But in 2020, Trump was helped greatly by the economic slowdown created by COVID-19 and the authority he had to turn back migrants for public health reasons (whether that was really effective as a public health measure or not). He also saw spikes in the number of immigrants crossing the border as well and implemented some policies ― like those that wound up emphasizing family separations ― that ran into legal issues and a backlash from the public.

'People coming in from prisons and mental institutions'

This has long been a claim Trump has made, going back to when he began his 2016 election campaign, only then, as the Washington Post recently pointed out, it was all about Mexico "sending people with a lot of problems" and his implication that many, if not most, were drug users and rapists. Now (with Mexican immigration down and immigration from Central American and South America up), Trump claims that prisons and other institutions across the world are being emptied and criminals are being sent into the U.S. There is no basis for this claim that we were able to locate and the Trump campaign, when asked about it by the Free Press, offered no source material to back it up. The Post also noted studies that worldwide prison populations are up, not down, though numbers in some countries fell during the pandemic.

Crime in Venezuela is 'down 67%'

This is related to the previous claim: In Trump's speech Tuesday and in a Michigan radio interview on Monday, Trump claimed that the crime rate is down by two-thirds in the turbulent South American country and that officials there are "taking all of their gangs and criminals … and depositing them in the United States." Again, there is no evidence of this being the case, though some 8 million people in that country have attempted to flee a humanitarian crisis caused by political unrest and economic turmoil, with hundreds of thousands trying to make it into the U.S. via Mexico. Bloomberg News reported that the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence, which is part of a group called Insight Crime that tracks data internationally, said recently that the country's rate of violent death had dropped to its lowest level in more than two decades "as both criminals and victims fled the nation’s economic crisis," citing the observatory's director. But the number dropped by about a quarter year over year, not two-thirds. And while it's logical that a number of both criminals and victims made their way to the U.S., there is no evidence of any plot by Venezuelan officials to encourage it.

Chinese migrants 'all seem fit and ready for military service'

This offhand remark came up as Trump talked about the number of migrants coming from all over the world, including China, where he said 29,000 immigrants to the U.S. originated in "the last few months." Then he added the comment about their age and fitness, suggesting it was strange. Coming at a time when concerns regarding Chinese competition, technology and supply chain constraints are high, it could stoke additional fears. It is plainly true that Chinese immigration across the southern border is up: PolitiFact, a fact-checking product put out by the Poynter Institute, noted that there were some 52,000 border encounters with Chinese immigrants in fiscal 2023, far higher than the norm, and that the trend continues. But U.S. Customs and Border Protection, it said, doesn't release age or gender data and "military age" can mean different things in different countries. As for whether many of the migrants are younger men, that wouldn't be terribly surprising, given the harsh conditions in attempting such a journey. Meanwhile, there's no evidence of a Communist Party plot to send people to the U.S. or elsewhere and many believe the migrants are motivated by the same desires for economic opportunities and political rights not available in that country.

Whitmer offering money for 'free housing for illegals'

Trump blasted Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for a program, much criticized by Republicans, through the Michigan Department of Labor & Economic Opportunity, that offers up to $500 a month to refugees and "other newcomer population-eligible households" to pay for housing. "Many refugees and other newcomers face critical housing challenges and this program will increase access to better and more affordable housing opportunities," the state website says. But as part of this program, people must qualify for the benefit and provide proof of an "eligible immigration status." It is possible that some asylum seekers, who would ultimately be found by officials to not have credible claims, could benefit — but that is different than declaring them "illegals" upfront, as Trump did.

Did Trump talk to woman's family as he claimed?

During the speech, Trump claimed to have made contact with Ruby Garcia's relatives, saying he had talked with "some of her family" ahead of his campaign event in Grand Rapids. But WOOD-TV Target 8 in Grand Rapids reported that Garcia's family, which watched the livestream at their home, was in "disbelief" at the remark, since the former president hadn't spoken to any of them. "He did not speak with any of us, so it was kind of shocking seeing that he had said that he had spoke with us, and misinforming people on live TV,” Ruby Garcia’s sister, Mavi Garcia, who has been serving as the family's spokesperson, said. She also said the extended family is close and she would know if Trump had spoken to any other members.

Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @tsspangler.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Many of Trump's claims about the border and crime don't stack up