How many Big 12 Tournament wins do Kansas State Wildcats need to reach March Madness?
Jerome Tang might as well have mimicked The Undertaker after his Kansas State men’s basketball team closed out the regular season with a victory over No. 7 Iowa State.
Few gave the Wildcats a chance to reach the NCAA Tournament heading into that game. But a glimmer of hope existed after the final buzzer, as if the Wildcats collectively woke up and burst out of a coffin like the iconic WWE wrestler mentioned above does in a popular meme.
“There is an opportunity,” Tang said. “There is a path for us, and I’m excited about that path.”
Here’s the million dollar question: How many wins do the Wildcats (18-13, 8-10 Big 12) need at the Big 12 Tournament in order to play their way into the field of 68?
Four wins in four days from No. 10 seed K-State, starting against No. 7 seed Texas at 6 p.m. on Wednesday inside T-Mobile Center, would give the Wildcats a Big Tournament championship and an automatic berth into March Madness. But two or three wins could be good enough for an at-large spot on the bracket.
Tang thinks two more victories “would be pretty good.” But the selection committee may not agree with that.
For now, most bracket experts seem to think the Wildcats are on the wrong side of the bubble with anywhere from four to 10 teams standing in front of them at the cut line.
ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi had K-State as the ninth team out of the field on Monday night, suggesting the Wildcats need at least two more wins. CBS expert Jerry Palm listed K-State on the bubble but not on his bracket.
K-State has a collection of quality wins on its resume, including home victories against Baylor, BYU, Iowa State and Kansas. Those four Quadrant 1 victories stack up well against other bubble teams.
“We have built a pretty darn good resume,” Tang said.
Problem is, K-State won seven of its 18 games in overtime and that has hurt its NET ranking (70), which the selection committee uses as a valuable tool during the seeding process.
Other teams on the bubble, according to Bracket Matrix, are Virginia, Colorado, St. John’s, Indiana State, New Mexico, Villanova, Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Providence and Ohio State.
Passing that many teams in the span of a week won’t be easy, But K-State can seriously improve its resume against strong competition in Kansas City. Every opponent that K-State will play at T-Mobile Center is likely to be a Quad 1 opponent.
Let’s say K-State beats Texas and Iowa State to reach the semifinals. That would give the Wildcats six Quad 1 wins, which may be too many for the selection committee to ignore. A third win over Baylor or Kansas would help even more.
But it’s also worth pointing out that Texas A&M went on a surprise run to the SEC Tournament run two years ago and got left out of the Big Dance despite 23 wins. The committee clearly didn’t value its victories in the conference tournament the way others expected them to.
Furthermore, winning multiple games at the Big 12 Tournament has never been easy for the Wildcats. They haven’t won two or more games at the event since it reached the final in 2013.
K-State will be motivated to end that streak. Its NCAA Tournament chances depend on it.
