Maddow Blog | Significant pro-Trump protest fails to materialize in N.Y. (again)

On Friday, with the first day of Donald Trump’s first criminal trial looming, the former president’s political operation predictably sent out a fundraising appeal to supporters. The message appeared designed to generate some excitement, with a headline that read, “72 hours until all hell breaks loose.”

Three days later, all hell did not break loose. NBC News reported on the developments in the park across the street from the New York City courthouse. Inside the building, the preliminary steps in the former president’s trial got underway, but outside, “peculiarity reigned over pedantry.”

The Daily Beast published a related report under a headline that read, “Trump Wanted to See Crowd Outside Trial. He Got 50 Randos.”

The article noted that protestors supporting the presumptive GOP nominee “were easily outnumbered by the phalanx of reporters and police.” One Trump supporter was quoted saying, “I thought more people would be here.”

It’s likely that the former president did, too.

In fact, circling back to our earlier coverage, as Trump’s post-defeat legal woes intensified, his rhetoric about his supporters taking to the streets grew louder. In January 2022, for example, amidst speculation about possible indictments, the Republican said at a rally that if he were to face charges, “I hope we are going to have in this country the biggest protests we have ever had.”

In September 2022, Trump delivered a related ominous message, saying that if he were indicted, the United States would face “problems ... the likes of which perhaps we’ve never seen.”

The vague predictions turned into directives last year. In March 2023, as the former president prepared for an indictment in New York, he turned to his social media platform, writing, “PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!” In case that was too subtle, Trump added a few hours later, “IT’S TIME!!! ... WE JUST CAN’T ALLOW THIS ANYMORE. ... WE MUST SAVE AMERICA! PROTEST, PROTEST, PROTEST!!!”

Around the same time, the Republican derided talk of “peaceful” demonstrations, while suggesting that if he were indicted in New York, it might cause “potential death [and] destruction” that “could be catastrophic for our Country.”

Though it seemed as if Trump envisioned mass groups of red-capped followers taking to the streets, those calls were largely ignored. Some supporters turned out in Manhattan around the time of his first arrest, but the gatherings were, by any fair measure, underwhelming duds.

After his classified documents scandal led to his second indictment, the former president again called on his followers to rally behind him — Trump wrote, “SEE YOU IN MIAMI ON TUESDAY!!!” on his social media platform — but the numbers were again small.

Local law enforcement was prepared for crowds of up to 50,000 people. The actual crowd was closer to 500.

Two months later, at a Trump arraignment in Washington, D.C., a “handful” of his supporters showed up to register their dissatisfaction.

Yesterday, the turnout was, once again, underwhelming. So much for “PROTEST, PROTEST, PROTEST!!!”

As for why, exactly, these demonstrations have failed to materialize, there are plenty of competing explanations, starting with the fact that the Justice Department’s extensive prosecutions of Jan. 6 rioters have not gone unnoticed among the former president’s most ardent backers.

But I’m also reminded of an analysis my MSNBC colleague Zeeshan Aleem wrote last year.

“It may have to do with post-Jan. 6 wariness of getting in trouble if a pro-Trump protest spirals out of control,” Aleem wrote. “Perhaps conspiracy theories about the government laying traps for peaceful protesters scared them out of showing up. Maybe Trump finally has exhausted his base with his constant hysteria. ... Whatever the reasons may be, Trump is looking weak.”

This post updates our related earlier coverage.

This article was originally published on MSNBC.com