Macron holds forces of Trump and Le Pen at bay – now he must deliver
French parvenu’s triumph gives liberalism a good name. For Europe’s sake as well as France’s, his third way must work
Paradigms shift as fast as headlines in the age of 24-hour news. With a stunning election victory snatched out of nowhere, Emmanuel Macron, the plausible parvenu, has suddenly patented a new model for inclusive democratic politics in Europe, and repulsed – for now at least – the forces of reaction and isolation typified by Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen.
Macron’s triumph gives liberalism a good name. Its rehabilitation comes in the nick of time.
For months, establishment politicians have skulked in Europe’s corridors of power, listening to a growing populist clamour from without.
Like a modern-day mob raging at the gates of Versailles, neo-fascists, racists, ultra-nationalists and hard-left utopians laid siege to the self-appointed heirs of the Enlightenment.
But these would-be revolutionary forces were not confined to the political fringe.
In France, as in the US and Britain last year, the simmering anger of the mainstream’s left-behind, the economically dispossessed and the socially excluded could no longer be contained.
The status quo had failed them. In working class heartlands, old loyalties broke and shattered. Their fury spilled over. They demanded change.
It wasn’t just that the centre could not hold. The centre all but disappeared as Trump stormed the White House and a majority of British voters defenestrated the EU. All the subsequent talk was of a populist domino effect sweeping Europe, knocking over the Dutch, the French and even the Germans.
Analysts predicted an end to the postwar social democratic order and a return to the age of the autocrat. In the US, Trump’s supporters hailed a “historic” watershed moment.
It has not happened. Macron, it seems, has turned the tide. He stood up for progressive values even as he spoke the language of la patrie.
Macron, the economic liberal, reasserted the primacy of open markets and open borders. He championed tolerance, rejected division. Macron, the outsider-insider, promised a change from the old paralysis of left and right – but not a bloody insurrection.
And he broke the mould. Europe’s liberal counter-revolution began on Sunday. Macron’s success will be seen as a striking rejection of the xenophobia and racism of the Front National.
It sets an encouraging example for Martin Schulz of Germany’s SPD, languishing in Angela Merkel’s lengthening shadow, and similar groupings such as Britain’s Liberal Democrats. It sends a sharp, deterrent message to the hard-right iconoclasts of Alternative für Deutschland that Europe’s mood is shifting.
Macron’s fresh ideas and strong pro-Europe stance will be a tonic for the EU. Things were already looking up after a gloomy 2016. The eurozone economy is expanding faster than the US or Britain, Greece has dodged the bankruptcy bullet again, and Brexit – so far – has not been as disruptive as feared.
In elections elsewhere, such as the Netherlands, extremists of left and right have also been rebuffed. Macron’s new ascendancy could re-energise the similarly youthful Matteo Renzi, a like-minded reformer now back in charge of Italy’s ruling Democratic party.
If Macron can turn ideas into facts, he will find more willing emulators in Spain, Greece and other European countries whose discredited political systems, like France’s, have seized up like old gearboxes starved of oil.
How Macron deals with Trump will be a telling test. But even Trump is not proving to be quite the nightmare that had kept many Europeans awake at night. His bark, at least so far, has been worse than his bite.
The Nato alliance has been rebooted, not retired. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has not suddenly been excused his misdeeds in Ukraine and Syria – or claims of serial election hacking.
Macron’s success may give heart to Americans despairing of a presidency forged in prejudice and fear. Trump was rooting for Le Pen. He all but endorsed her, calling her the “strongest” candidate. But wishing did not make it so.
Like Putin, Le Pen is a Trump soulmate – but a soulmate without power who missed her moment. If he has any sense at all, Trump will catch Europe’s shifting winds.
Given the alternative, maybe Macron’s win is no great surprise. Generally speaking the French have always seen themselves as a race apart. “Vive la difference” is no idle national slogan.
And while France’s open society traditionally tolerates political extremes, the mass of French voters, however angry and alienated, were never going to thoughtlessly follow in the path of Britain’s self-harming Brexiters or Trump’s blue-collar battalions.
By ditching the old parties and backing an untried interloper, France has taken what Disraeli called a leap in the dark. Like a born-again Tony Blair, Macron promises a third way. It’s a bold, hazardous step. Now, for Europe’s sake as well as France’s, he has to deliver.
