Macron Goes to Brazil Seeking Movement on Ukraine: What to Watch

Samy Adghirni and Simone Iglesias
·3 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day trip to Brazil on Tuesday as part of his troubled strategy to build bridges between developed nations and the so-called Global South.

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High on his agenda will be an attempt to convince Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to take a stand on the war. Lula has so far sought to position his country as a neutral nation that can maintain ties with both Russia and Ukraine. Macron has emerged as one of the strongest voices on the conflict, warning Western allies that Russian President Vladimir Putin poses an existential threat to the European Union.

Lula, for his part, wants Macron to end his opposition to the EU’s free-trade agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc, which has been in limbo since a political deal was reached in 2019.

Ukraine

Macron sees Brazil as a key player among emerging powers, French officials said, especially as it holds the rotating presidency of the Group of 20 countries, which include most of the world’s largest economies.

The French leader is betting that his differences with Lula over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can be narrowed, the officials added, even though Brazil considers that the two sides share the blame for the war.

Lula has repeatedly rejected arming Ukraine, arguing that the US and EU strategy is undermining the prospect of a negotiated solution. Brazil’s stance largely resonates in the Global South, which refers to emerging economies.

EU-Mercosur Trade Talks

Earlier this year, Macron lobbied European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to end the current round of negotiations on the prospective Mercosur trade deal between the EU and Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. Talks have been going on for more than two decades, but discussions stalled five years ago amid new European environmental demands.

Macron’s move is ultimately an effort to appease French farmers who are protesting over what they see as cheap imports that don’t respect the same standards.

Environment

In 2019, tensions over the deforestation of the Amazon led to a halt in Franco-Brazilian ties under Lula’s right-wing predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

With Lula resuming environmental efforts, the two countries are cooperating again on preservation. While Macron is set to announce some support for Lula’s green programs, the French leader is unlikely to unveil a contribution to Brazil’s flagship Amazon Fund.

Military Jets, Submarines

Brazil is pushing France to update its aging military trainer aircraft fleet with new Embraer SA Phenom jets. However, this clashes with Macron’s goal of stronger European sovereignty, underpinned by purchasing military goods within Europe.

Embraer is also trying to sell its flagship KC-390, a new military transport aircraft, which it has already sold to the Netherlands, Portugal and Austria.

Brazil has been building French-designed submarines for more than a decade. Yet, one of them is a nuclear-propelled vessel with specific engine needs that Brazil has been struggling to build. It is unclear whether Macron will agree to Brazil’s requests for further cooperation in what is a sensitive field.

--With assistance from Daniel Carvalho, Andrew Rosati and Leda Alvim.

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