Why the Trump rally could heat up into year end: JPM Strategist
A massive year-end rally could be in store, according to one JPMorgan strategist.
Markets have continued to impress throughout November as the so-called Trump rally rages on. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq — all sitting at record highs — are up a respective 4, 6 and 3 percent this month. And while some may speculate that the market has come too far too fast, Jack Caffrey of JPMorgan Private Bank still sees stocks heading higher into year end.
Just how much higher could they go? The answer, says the strategist, could be up to 4 percent.
"Two to 4 percent would be the next rally for the month of December," Caffrey said on Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "I think certainly going back through the entirety of the year, the more we see in December the more likely we're going to have some of that forward [momentum]." Caffrey's call comes as we enter what is seasonally one of the strongest months of the year. On average, the S&P 500 posts a return of 1.4 percent in the month of December, posting even stronger gains during a presidential election year, according to data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Caffrey sees two further reasons why the Santa rally could kick into high gear: the first being that economic data has generally looked better from his point of view. Additionally, Caffrey believes that the market has pulled out of an "earnings recession" based on companies' Q3 reports.
"We have expectations, we have fundamentals and we have seasonals," said the strategist. "I think they all point us a little bit higher in the short term."
If Caffrey's predictions hold true, that means the S&P 500 could reach around 2,296 and set yet another record by the end of the year.
But of course, Caffrey points out that uncertainty around Trump's policies are still a point of discussion and something for the markets to watch. "We're not sure what the priorities are, and that's where people remain optimistically biased," he explained.
Markets continued their rise on Wednesday, with the Dow and S&P hitting another intraday record high.
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