A look at where we’re at with the Raiders to Las Vegas stadium issue

The Oakland Raiders are actually a very interesting team this season. A product of massive hype during the offseason, the Raiders started off hot with a 4-1 record only to be brought back down to Earth in a brutal loss at home to the Kansas City Chiefs. I saw that to explain in part why I have done little to no writing on the Las Vegas stadium situation.

The Los Angeles drama produced so much “news” that mattered so little it was a dramatic waste of time. This go round, I decided only to cover major events and alas, here we are.

But where are we?

THE MONEY

The Nevada legislature approved and the governor signed off on the $750 million in public funding for the Raiders’ stadium marking the first major step towards a relocation to the Silver state. Personally, I assumed this would get passed once I learned that the tax would be a tourist tax on hotel rooms and not directly on Nevada residents.

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While I understand that it’s still money that could be going towards other needs in the state, that’s not how most would look at it. Legislators knew that most would not be upset at the idea of a tax on non locals that might produce something good for the state.

This all but guarantees the Raiders will have a stadium in Las Vegas should the owners approve the relocation request. But that’s far from the end of the story. While some want to believe the vote is a foregone conclusion, as you will see, that’s far from being the reality.

THE VOTE

It was anticipated that the NFL owners will vote on the relocation request of the Raiders in January of 2017 but now, it looks as though that could be pushed back even further. Why? Because the owners have a whole lot of information they must digest before they can decide how to vote on the potential move to Las Vegas.

Because don’t be confused about this, a move to Vegas is much different than a move to Los Angeles. There was a clear consensus that the NFL wanted back into Los Angeles after being absent for far too long. There is no consensus on Vegas. Some owners may believe it’s a great idea, some may believe it’s a terrible idea but more likely than not, most owners don’t know what to believe yet.

NFL owners know a whole lot more than you or I do about television markets and media contracts (where the NFL generates most of their money). But even the owners don’t know enough to know for certain whether or not Las Vegas is a good idea. That’s where the experts come in.

With those reports, the owners can get an idea of what the difference in value is between the two markets with regards to things OTHER than cost of the stadium. Because while Vegas has the money for a stadium, they also have a much smaller market. And as Art Rooney has already pointed out, because of that fact, the City of Oakland does not need to match the $750 million given by Vegas in order to be the better option.

The problem is, so far Oakland has offered no money. So far…

THE WILDCARD

The City of Oakland jumping in with a wildcard play with Ronnie Lott and company is looking less and less likely with each passing day. We continue to hear rumblings about things that may or may not be happening in Oakland but with few to no actual details.

However, there was one tidbit of information reported recently that should give Oakland fans a glimmer of hope.

There’s your hope Oaklanders. It isn’t great but I guess it’s better than nothing. Before now there was literally nothing on the table from Oakland. Now that it appears there may be an offering from the City of Oakland, fans better hope it’s enough to sway the owners that there’s a legitimate option to the Vegas proposal.

And then, of course, there’s the possibility of the NFL acting on it’s own to try and find a stadium solution in Oakland:

It seems to me that this is the least likely way a stadium gets done in Oakland but hey, you never know.

Either way, if Oakland and the NFL fail to provide a legitimate alternative to the Las Vegas stadium plan, their only hope would be in the owners having no faith in the Vegas market. While it’s entirely possible, that’s not something I would want to put my faith in, especially considering how much public money is being offered in Vegas.

THE CONCLUSION

There is no conclusion. We won’t know enough to come to a conclusion until much, much closer to the actual owners vote. But for now, I would probably put the odds at 60/40 with 60% chance the Raiders end up in Las Vegas and a 40% chance they remain in Oakland.

But of course, a whole lot can happen between now and whenever the owners decide to vote that could sway that percentage dramatically one way or the other.

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