Local health leaders don't anticipate big post-holiday COVID spike, but aren't certain

Dec. 22—With Christmas near and the Hanukkah season underway, Frederick County health care leaders are hopeful — but not sure — that there won't be a repeat of last winter's tsunami of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

The predominant variant of the virus circulating in the Maryland region continues to be versions of the omicron strain, which people as young as 6 months old can now be protected against by receiving an updated booster shot.

And since so many people have been infected with the virus, there is likely plenty of immunity in the community, said Dr. Kathy Weishaar, chief medical officer and vice president of medical affairs at Frederick Health.

Even so, she said, it's hard to say for certain how this year's holiday season will affect the local spread of respiratory illnesses — including the flu, which continues to sicken people in Frederick County at a high rate.

"As most people would expect, the holidays — especially Christmas and New Year's — are very social," Weishaar said. "People will mix, and it's likely we'll see some impact from that."

"Now, whether we'll see dramatic changes at the hospital, versus just in the community," she continued, "I think remains to be seen."

For the last three months, COVID-19 hospitalizations in Frederick County have hovered around 10 to 20 people, Weishaar said. As of Tuesday, the last day for which data was available on the Frederick County Health Department's website, 21 beds were occupied in the local hospital by people sick with the virus.

There wasn't a spike in hospitalizations or weekly COVID-19 infections after Thanksgiving this year, said Dr. Randy Culpepper, deputy health officer for Frederick County.

"I don't know what that means," he said. "I'm hopeful they won't skyrocket, but we really don't know."

It was a different story last year.

Coronavirus infections began rising rapidly following Thanksgiving, quickly shooting to unprecedented levels and overwhelming the local health care infrastructure.

People sick with the virus crowded Frederick Health Hospital at the start of the new year. Facing staffing shortages alongside an explosion in demand for treatment, the hospital enacted emergency changes to protocol, giving leaders the flexibility to funnel limited resources to the patients with the highest levels of need.

After the dust settled from last year's emergency, Weishaar said, the hospital reflected on what worked well during the crisis and what could be improved. Leaders took away lessons about how to better respond to future emergencies — from how to deploy staff members to how to be flexible with resources.

If a similar increase in hospitalizations happens following this year's holiday season, Weishaar said, she is certain Frederick Health could handle it.

"I'm confident in our constant state of readiness," she said.

What could further complicate matters this year, however, is the potential of what health experts are calling a "tripledemic" — a surge in respiratory syncytial virus and influenza infections, while COVID-19 continues to circulate.

In Maryland, respiratory syncytial virus — better known as RSV — infections have peaked, Weishaar said. The flu, however, is still very much active in the state.

Last week, there were 301 flu-related hospitalizations reported, according to the influenza database run by the Maryland Department of Health. Since the start of this year's flu season, there have been 14 influenza-related deaths.

Despite the abnormally high level of infections, however, only about a quarter of Maryland's population has gotten a flu shot. Frederick County had the third highest proportion of flu vaccinations in the state, according to Maryland's database, with 29.2% of its population reportedly receiving a flu shot.

The updated booster shots have also not been going "like gangbusters," as the county health department had hoped they would, Culpepper said.

He and Weishaar encouraged Frederick County residents to take precautions this holiday season to keep themselves and others healthy.

Culpepper's family doesn't plan to travel for Christmas this year, or gather with large groups of people. He expressed concern for the country's health care infrastructure, and urged people to avoid getting sick with any respiratory virus — including the common cold — to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.

The No. 1 way people can protect themselves from the circulating respiratory illnesses, Weishaar said, is to get vaccinated. Regular hand washing is also important, she said.

And if you feel unwell, she added, stay home. Don't go to that holiday party, even though you really want to and you go every year.

"If you are sick, recognize that much like COVID, flu is very contagious," she said. "And so you go, and you interact with multiple different people, who then all go and they interact with multiple different people. So, it spreads very, very quickly among crowds like that."

Follow Angela Roberts on Twitter: @24_angier