What do the local election results mean for the general election?

As the first results from the May 2024 local elections come in, Keir Starmer has told the prime minister to make way for a general election.

It comes as Rishi Sunak faces a brutal series of losses set to further dampen the party’s prospects in the face of a looming general election.

Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said the election “could be one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performances in local government elections of the last 40 years”, while Conservative MPs have reluctantly conceded the results from the council elections are poor for the party.

As we await the results of the key mayoral contests and the remaining councils, The Independent asks what the initial results mean for the general election, expected later this year.

When will we get a general election?

The prime minister has long claimed that his “working assumption” is that the country will take to the polls for a general election in the second half of the year, with many commentators suggesting it is most likely to be in the autumn.

But Westminster whispers suggest that a dire set of local election results could hasten a general election as rebel Conservative MPs move to depose Mr Sunak.

Sir John suggested that the Conservatives could be on track to lose over 500 seats, which would exceed the worst-case expectations offered up by CCHQ.

As of yet, there are minimal calls for Mr Sunak to go, as even his arch-critics have suggested a leadership coup is unlikely.

But the big test will be the mayoral results, which will not come in until the weekend.

Both incumbent Tory mayors in the West Midlands and Teesside are thought to be clinging to their seats on a knife-edge vote between Labour and the Conservatives. The loss of either or both seats would mean the overturning of huge majorites and could trigger substantial anger within the Tory party.

On the other hand, in London, it is widely anticipated that although the incumbent Labour mayor Sadiq Khan will maintain his mayorality the results may be closer than initially thought.

If the Tory candidate Susan Hall were to achieve a relatively high proportion of the voteshare, this could placate Tory insurgents, even if there were huge losses in other areas. Tory strategists suggest even a narrowing of the polls in London could assuage Tory nerves, with the capital offering a helpful blueprint to returning some lost support.

With days to come until the results will be fully digested, disgruntled Tories have plenty of time to strategise the pros and cons of pushing for Mr Sunak’s early departure.

What do the results mean for the Conservatives?

Pollsters have already confirmed that the local council results have verified the series of disastrous poll ratings that the Conservatives have been experiencing.

The most recent YouGov poll gave the Labour party a 26-point lead on the Tories, which, if repeated at a general election would give the party just 36 seats according to the prediction site Electoral Calculus.

Professor Curtice said: “I think we have to conclude that the message of the polls of the last 12 months - which is that the Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak has not been making significant progress in narrowing the gap on Labour - that its not been making that progress, and these local results so far fully confirm what those polls have been saying”.

The results are therefore unlikely to inspire the party with much hope for an electoral rebound. It looks almost certain that Labour will take the keys to No. 10 - the big question is how sizeable the defeat will be.

And what about Labour?

Sir Keir said Labour’s win - in the contest to replace ousted Tory MP Scott Benton - was “truly historic” and the “most important result” nationally as the party achieved yet another 20-point swing in a by-election.

Blackpool is significant as a key northern battleground which turned blue in 2019, having fought the Tories off by a slim margin in previous general elections.

Today’s swing demonstrates a significant drop-off in support for the governing party in a town that has been badly impacted by levelling-up failures, the cost of living crisis and Tory sleaze. As these are all issues that will characterise general election campaign, the party’s victory will please Labour strategists.

In the local council elections more broadly, Labour has made gains in areas which have been historically Tory-dominated, such as Rushmoor and Thurrock. In response to gaining Thurrock council, a Labour spokesperson saying: “This is exactly the kind of place we need to be winning to gain a majority in a general election.”

Should Labour continue to replicate these kind of successes as the local elections continue to unfold, the party will feel comfortably on track to overturn blue constituencies at the general election and achieve a comfortable majority.

What else can we learn from the results so far?

As is often the case in local elections, challenger and fringe parties have made substantial gains as people tend to vote on localised issues rather than who they want to see in No.10.

Significantly for Labour, both the Greens and independent candidates have made strides in areas where populations are concerned about the opposition’s position on Gaza and environmental issues.

The party lost control of Oldham council after independent candidates, several of whom explicitly campaigned in support of Palestine, gained five seats on Thursday night, pushing the council into no overall control.

Labour’s national campaign co-ordinator Pat McFadden acknowledged the crisis in Gaza had been “a factor in some places”, saying that with “so many innocent people being killed I’m not surprised people have strong feelings about that”.

As a result, Labour will be carefully keeping an eye on their vote share in areas with significant Muslim and student populations, keen not to hemorrhage support in voter groups that have typically been seen as a safe bet for the party.

On the right, Reform beat the Tories in 16 out of the 25 seats, which is likely to irk the Tory factions that have been pushing for the prime minister to shift rightwards.

Though Reform MP Lee Anderson insisted his party will win seats at a general election, the party ultimately performed slightly worse than it hoped, taking third place in the Blackpool by-election.

The vote share was narrow - only 117 votes between the Tories and the right-wing challenger party - but still dampening Reform’s chances of taking an entire constituency, as the party is still underperforming when compared to similar tests by Ukip in previous parliaments.